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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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44 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wants but...

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I am going to go ahead and take the WAY under on that for my area. no way do I see 3-5". perhaps some wet flakes, but that will be about it. my call: 0.0" 

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39 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just posting what the models say. So they are right when they say 70 but wrong when they say cold. That's why people don't give your posts any cred.

Most folks here appreciate my knowledge and insights . The boy who cried snow each winter is the one that gets snickers. 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most folks here appreciate my knowledge and insights . The boy who cried snow each winter is the one that gets snickers. 

I might be close to stepping onboard the Doo-Doo express. 

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wants but...

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The euro wasn’t this showing that much snow that far south at 0z? That would be nice.  New puppy, kid’s activities, mount snow is the best option for me Sunday.

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7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z GFS didn't take the bait, Snow is still relegated to the higher elevations and into Northern Maine for Sunday.

Eh. NAM and EC are fairly wintry here, but damn it is close. 

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Eh. NAM and EC are fairly wintry here, but damn it is close. 

I'm hoping i miss out by a few miles like a few others this winter but watch that not be the case........lol

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51 minutes ago, GCWarrior said:

The euro wasn’t this showing that much snow that far south at 0z? That would be nice.  New puppy, kid’s activities, mount snow is the best option for me Sunday.

Pic of the pup? Hope all is well, been a minute

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23 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Caught this van on my dash cam.  

At what point does a painter decide that a regular size cargo van ain't the correct vehicle to be shuffling 14 or so ladders  back and forth?

 

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Asshole

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21 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Caught this van on my dash cam.  

At what point does a painter decide that a regular size cargo van ain't the correct vehicle to be shuffling 14 or so ladders  back and forth?

 

20240307_164957.jpg

When it gets to a 14' bridge,

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1 hour ago, dryslot said:

12z GFS didn't take the bait, Snow is still relegated to the higher elevations and into Northern Maine for Sunday.

Lol.  Seems like the GFS is now the outlier. See what the euro does.  I know people probably don’t care at this point.  

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13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

When did that start coming out so early?

This week, 12z comes out at 12:12 pm and is done by 1:00pm on SV.

News

ECMWF News

Submitted by mrwx on Wed, 2024-03-06 09:37

 

Faster Dissemination Management

New News on the Next European Model Upgrade

working.PNG

Optimizing the Speed Situation

The much faster delivery of the European ensemble started on Tuesday, March 5, with mixed results for StormVista map and data production.

Products were available much faster than ever before, however, issues such as out-of-order files and varying speeds in file type dissemination are requiring logic adjustments for future speed optimization.

StormVista's larger list of variable and map options are beneficial to clients, but they become a liability for processing speed. The ECMWF's faster delivery includes providing files out of order with significant delays at times for key files.

Missing Hour 45 (as happened on the first day) caused map production disruption, but it did not affect the 6-hour max/min data for city forecasts and degree day calculations.

However, when Hour 180 stalled, it did impact city/degree day calculations, allowing the maps to get ahead once the file arrived.

There were also issues when the various types of files (low vs. high resolution) also arrived out of order (low-res is typically faster, but not the case on the first day).

We are addressing each of these challenges and adjusting variable priorities to find ways to speed up delivery in these instances.

 

In Other Big News

Amid yesterday's chaotic situation (they initially flubbed the 6z roll out too), the ECMWF announced big changes to the next model upgrade:

  • New upgrade, Cycle 49r1, is now planned for October 2024
    • This is a significant delay from their typical June-July upgrade timing
  • They will make the operational (HRES) identical to the ENS control run
  • They will make this operational/control run available earlier than the ensemble (as they do now)
  • However, according to what they wrote yesterday, this new control run (operational) will run out to 15 days instead of 10
    • Not only did they change their intention to remove the operational, but they are now running it out further
  • The Cycle 50r1, planned for October 2025 will continue this earlier control run release out to 15 days
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