March 2024 disco/obs

[Ginx snewx]

Feb is gone. Without the need to read an entire novel. Your forecast Mid March on so we can score. I layed out mine . I can handle the ridicule if wrong.  NBD

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:01 PM, kdxken said:

All hot all the time crew is struggling.

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The Eurasian crew is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:02 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Feb is gone. Without the need to read an entire novel. Your forecast Mid March on so we can score. I layed out mine . I can handle the ridicule if wrong.  NBD

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Its like 2 paragraphs....faster read than walking the dog and shoveling the deuce.

[CoastalWx]

Record warm winter. Tough for the ACATT peeps. Those dam debbies man. 

[UnitedWx]

  On 3/6/2024 at 1:31 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Dude ... after the 40 or 50 years of our lives [probably] suffering the vicissitudes of New England climate betwixt March 10 and May 10 ... this doesn't suck.  It just is...

     normal

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Sure, but "normal... WTF ever that is,  can be boring 

[dendrite]

  On 3/6/2024 at 2:34 PM, Ginx snewx said:

That's your forecast. We score

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Look I expect it to snow here again this season…probably multiple times. We’ll probably pull a couple of days BN this month too. But this is transition season and I’m treating it like we’re 2 weeks ahead of schedule based on how far ahead of climo most of the CONUS and southern Can are. Albedo is way down and the frost line is way north. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/3/2024 at 12:45 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nobody knows for certain, but mainly rain for in SNE for all of March is a safe bet.

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  On 3/4/2024 at 5:10 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Starting to agree.  We lost the Scooter high again 

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[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:10 PM, dendrite said:

Look I expect it to snow here again this season…probably multiple times. We’ll probably pull a couple of days BN this month too. But this is transition season and I’m treating it like we’re 2 weeks ahead of schedule based on how far ahead of climo most of the CONUS and southern Can are. Albedo is way down and the frost line is way north. 

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Agree

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:12 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

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That was for the 10th threat 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Always looked somewhat above normal, but....that area by the Bering Sea is what guidance missed. That made what was forecast to be servicable February warmth into February cancel.

[dendrite]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:01 PM, kdxken said:

Not here. No threat whatsoever.

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That was a week out and there may be some 60+ readings before the day is done

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:06 PM, CoastalWx said:

Record warm winter. Tough for the ACATT peeps. Those dam debbies man. 

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So so easy to Monday Morning QB I don't remember your forecast but if you called for an all time warm winter excellent call.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:14 PM, Ginx snewx said:

That was for the 10th threat 

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Well, you said you were starting to agree and quote me saying " mainly rain for most in SNE for all of March is a safe bet"

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:16 PM, Ginx snewx said:

So so easy to Monday Morning QB I don't remember your forecast but if you called for an all time warm winter excellent call.

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Yea, no one expected this warmth....Raindance was closest, but even he was too cool. Bluewave seemed to have the right idea, but he only does 2 week increments, which is probably part of the secret to his sucess. lol

[Ginx snewx]

So if we are BN Mid March to Mid April I won't be surprised that's all

[40/70 Benchmark]

We all have alot to learn about weather and will probably be able to say that on our death beds.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:16 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, you said you were starting to agree and quote me saying " mainly rain for most in SNE for all of March is a safe bet"

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Didn't mean it that way. I had hopes for the 10th 11th as did some Mets but the evolution is north although certainly if a 524 is below us we probably at minimum snow squall 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:15 PM, dendrite said:

That was a week out and there may be some 60+ readings before the day is done

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Today?

[dendrite]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:18 PM, Ginx snewx said:

So if we are BN Mid March to Mid April I won't be surprised that's all

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BN for that period overall??? Send me some of your brownies. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:20 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Didn't mean it that way. I had hopes for the 10th 11th as did some Mets but the evolution is north although certainly if a 524 is below us we probably at minimum snow squall 

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Gotcha...my bad. Tough to follow on here sometimes with so many posts and quotes.

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:16 PM, Ginx snewx said:

So so easy to Monday Morning QB I don't remember your forecast but if you called for an all time warm winter excellent call.

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I don't do long range calls. But I call it as I see it in the 2 week timeframe looking ahead. I even made a post back in earlier Feb about not liking the look in the Bering Sea when models showed the favorable pattern. And that pattern went to shit quick. 

 

Dendrite mentioned it beautifully. Although I think a large event is going to be a tall task, maybe we get a couple of trash can toppers that last until 11am.  I understand that pattern shown could support a larger event....but I will say it again...talk to me inside 5 days. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:21 PM, CoastalWx said:

I don't do long range calls. But I call it as I see it in the 2 week timeframe looking ahead. I even made a post back in earlier Feb about not liking the look in the Bering Sea when models showed the favorable pattern. And that pattern went to shit quick. 

 

Dendrite mentioned it beautifully. Although I think a large event is going to be a tall task, maybe we get a couple of trash can toppers that last until 11am.  I understand that pattern shown could support a larger event....but I will say it again...talk to me inside 5 days. 

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100% correct call and great observation.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:21 PM, dendrite said:

BN for that period overall??? Send me some of your brownies. 

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Why? You persistent forecasting? I just think the pattern breaks down and we see more PNA ridging and EPO negative than we had. Again can be scored. 

[dendrite]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:21 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Today?

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Yeah today. Moreso S NH. That system sneaking in from the S today spoiled your chances at 65-70. 

[Ginx snewx]

It's funny when someone posts a day ten torch that ends up 40 degrees it's hey it was 10 days out but if someone posts a BN 10 day that ends up AN then a label.is attached like ACATT.  

[dendrite]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:26 PM, Ginx snewx said:

It's funny when someone posts a day ten torch that ends up 40 degrees it's hey it was 10 days out but if someone posts a BN 10 day that ends up AN then a label.is attached like ACATT.  

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We’re going to pull a +15 to +20 day up here today. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:28 PM, dendrite said:

We’re going to pull a +15 to +20 day up here today. 

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And the overall synoptic pattern supports warmth. Congrats surface on low level junk. 

 

 

[512high]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:28 PM, dendrite said:

We’re going to pull a +15 to +20 day up here today. 

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That will be impressive, I'm at my shop ASH, hvy clouds, Davis sitting at 45F....

[weatherwiz]

Let's just agree that the next few months are going to suck more than not. We'll get some beautiful days mixed in which tells us those days on a more consistent basis are approaching but we all know how springs work around here:

1. We could have a two week stretch of widespread 60's/70's within the region mid-month, higher elevations and northern New England will still have some snow threats well through April. We could get a stretch of 70's/80's and they still will.

2. We are going to have some brutal periods of chilly temperatures, stiff northeast breezes, clouds, showers, heavier rain.

3. We'll have some days with wild weather differences within the region. This will be characterized by periods where we get over the top warmth and NNE is dabbing 70's and lower 80's while SNE is shocked in with some marine crap. 

4. We'll have days when portions of SNE are into the 60's and 70's while other parts are backdoored and dealing with 40's and low clouds/drizzle. 

We are about to get a mixture of everything through the next 7-8 weeks. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 3/6/2024 at 3:33 PM, weatherwiz said:

Let's just agree that the next few months are going to suck more than not. We'll get some beautiful days mixed in which tells us those days on a more consistent basis are approaching but we all know how springs work around here:

1. We could have a two week stretch of widespread 60's/70's within the region mid-month, higher elevations and northern New England will still have some snow threats well through April. We could get a stretch of 70's/80's and they still will.

2. We are going to have some brutal periods of chilly temperatures, stiff northeast breezes, clouds, showers, heavier rain.

3. We'll have some days with wild weather differences within the region. This will be characterized by periods where we get over the top warmth and NNE is dabbing 70's and lower 80's while SNE is shocked in with some marine crap. 

4. We'll have days when portions of SNE are into the 60's and 70's while other parts are backdoored and dealing with 40's and low clouds/drizzle. 

We are about to get a mixture of everything through the next 7-8 weeks. 

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Hopefully the tropics ramp up in June...until then its Fantasy Baseball and yard work.