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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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  On 3/4/2024 at 4:06 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

People have been here for decades and still can’t understand it. The morality stuff is tedious.

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  On 3/4/2024 at 4:16 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I appreciate the awe on youtube/twitter but no thanks IMBY. Had to deal with May 18 EF1 and that was enough damage experienced for a lifetime. 
 

I’ll deff chase when the kids get older but keep the worst away from my cocoon. 

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None of my posts were meant to touch on the "morality" of weather discussion.  I was only pointing out that Coastal is sounding more and more like DIT.  I was poking at Coastal only.  

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  On 3/4/2024 at 4:33 PM, mreaves said:

Lol.  I understand all of that and agree.  I'm just pointing out that your posting style is starting to resemble our friend in Connecticut.

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It's a way of just venting and letting out frustration after the last two years. It's a long hard season for me when  it's 40 and rain 3/4 of the time. I also like to BS and joke around...makes me feel better lol. 

 

I'll say this, I'm throwing a parade down the pike when I get my first WSW event. 

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  On 3/4/2024 at 5:03 PM, dendrite said:

Pulled the plug early to take it out of its misery. 

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I'm still suspicious about the version we've been fed by that organization over the last 2 or 3 years. 

I wouldn't put it beyond the realm of possibility that we were deliberately given a regressed beta version in preparation for this next gen roll-out.  Kind of a 'calculated risk' to up the profile of the new version while not too seriously compromising performance.  But ... we're kind of a hyper sensy sort in here and notice things. 

I mean I just find it hard to believe in blanket statements like, "ever since they updated it its been a piece of shit" as though some bug or error or incompetence got through QA. These are post doc scientific engineers - they're just not that 'stupid'  ... I find it more likely that they knew/know all along what's going on. 

 

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  On 3/4/2024 at 5:10 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Starting to agree.  We lost the Scooter high again 

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Yep. 
… I noticed that when that happened, we started repositioning the ensemble mean, and a lot of the mid upper features the whole everything of it, more N too. 

It really seems that we have this multi season plague going on where the true northern Stream and true southern stream can’t play nice together.

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  On 3/4/2024 at 4:35 PM, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

Yeah let's be honest who wouldn't enjoy a good cane? Obviously not something really strong but a Category 1 or 2 would be fun. Category 3 and up gets dangerous.

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It has been obscenely active in the Gulf, but aside from Isaias, the East Coast has been spared. Fiona could’ve been legit if the mid level pattern were slightly different and obviously Henri further west could’ve been more impactful here. 

I do think that this season will feature a more consistent Atlantic ridge and WAR but at this stage that’s fairly speculative. 

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The wind kept the snow in the parking lot from completely burying the cars. Good news! The not so good news is what’s remaining is true Sierra Cement. A front loader and a spinning turbine should be here by noon so we can really start digging out. Impossible to say what the storm total was but after seeing some regional observations and talking with folks that live here, it’s a solid 120 inches…10 feet. 

IMG_1670-compressed.png

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  On 3/4/2024 at 6:30 PM, Torch Tiger said:

Several killer cutters on the 12z gfs

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Seasonal smear is already pretty obviously swept over the hemisphere...

These systemic llv gradients are normalizing on either side of boundaries.   It's one of the reasons why the 11th is sort of a blown up ravioli look with a dispersed cyclonic pressure pattern... because that focus feeds back on the vertical structure, and helps deepen it further  ...which in turn carves the trough to a more southerly latitude ... 

lot of feedback mechanics are gone and we have lots of S/W still capable aloft, but with comparably weaker organized surface lows as a result.  

But what we are seeing is PWAT anomalies. 

Gee... unusually early springs?  More rain than is normal relative to weaker systems?   I wonder what could be causing those..  

But it's not committing to warmth, either.  It's just making things inCREdibly boring.  At least the clocks go ahead in 6 days.  Get out of work in 58 F with still some daylight is at least seemingly better than dreary.

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