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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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  On 3/1/2024 at 5:30 PM, WinterWolf said:

The weather does BS things a lot…you of all people know this.  It’d be the ultimate…fools us again idea.  

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It does, so it wouldn’t be surprising. It’s still technically winter and as we know March has been more of a winter month than December in recent years.

I won’t rain on anyone’s parade if it happens but I’ve definitely moved on to desiring the warmth of spring. 

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  On 3/1/2024 at 5:32 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

i would like to see more of a cutoff signature, as AN heights over Nova Scotia usually aren’t the best for late season storms. however, teleconnections aren’t quite as useful as they are in mid-Jan due to shorter wavelengths. there’s also some nice HP to the north. something to watch, but I would lower expectations given a lack of ample cold air 

IMG_4904.thumb.png.87ae01feb9e3c6f10e34a9485ad13dc7.pngIMG_4903.thumb.png.a83ca93bc06c31ffeaeb4054b512901b.png

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Way to play it down some…it’ll be a huge hit now for sure. Thanks pal. 

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  On 3/1/2024 at 5:33 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

It does, so it wouldn’t be surprising. It’s still technically winter and as we know March has been more of a winter month than December in recent years.

I won’t rain on anyone’s parade if it happens but I’ve definitely moved on to desiring the warmth of spring. 

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Oh I agree.  Funny thing is, it keeps showing up lol. 

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  On 3/1/2024 at 5:40 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He’s not though. It’s a fair assessment imo. One thing is for sure though, we're taking ditty to the woodshed and spanking his bare fanny with empty beer bottles. 

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if this was Jan, i’d probably can the risk, but March is stupid and this could easily just cut off and dump

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  On 3/1/2024 at 5:40 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He’s not though. It’s a fair assessment imo. One thing is for sure though, we're taking ditty to the woodshed and spanking his bare fanny with empty beer bottles. 

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Man you have just been infatuated with me the last few weeks. I mean dude .. rise up off deez nuts 

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  On 3/1/2024 at 5:23 PM, WinterWolf said:

I think you said something like this for 2/13 too lol.  It’s still low chance for most in SNE…but it’s still there. Which is comical due to folks yelling everything is over. Love the irony. 

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What is your point? This one will trend very far south because that one did?

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  On 3/1/2024 at 5:32 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

i would like to see more of a cutoff signature, as AN heights over Nova Scotia usually aren’t the best for late season storms. however, teleconnections aren’t quite as useful as they are in mid-Jan due to shorter wavelengths. there’s also some nice HP to the north. something to watch, but I would lower expectations given a lack of ample cold air 

IMG_4904.thumb.png.87ae01feb9e3c6f10e34a9485ad13dc7.pngIMG_4903.thumb.png.a83ca93bc06c31ffeaeb4054b512901b.png

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Yea, same feeling on this.

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gfs_T850a_us_35.png

 

The operational run is a cold outlier at 850 mb on the evening of the 10th. 

Despite the growing coherence in the mean/distribution products, the ens mean is quite a bit warmer than this above in the antecedence to that 10/11th system. 

One might think it would it trend colder as we near, or else the baroclinicity comes into question and the whole thing ends up an elevated gyre.  Warned this in the past.... the big cyclone extended range systems of spring sometimes deteriorate in the runs as they near, because the b-c gradients get homogenized by the time of the year.  

But, maybe the oper is onto something.

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  On 3/1/2024 at 6:09 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is your point? This one will trend very far south because that one did?

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Not at all,  what I mean is, it’s a roll the dice chance at this juncture, this thing can end up anywhere.  So saying anything at this point is pretty useless, other than there may be a storm nearby in 8-9 days. 

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