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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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I didn't know this thread started.

I'm sure it's been covered but...  the 12z GFS oper continues to trend toward a more cohesive/less perforated eastern continent ridge in the first week of March.  3-6th may even have a synergistic warm burst in there.  582 dm non-hydrostatic hgts near-by our latitude that early ceilings the anomaly products. 

For now the modeled hydrostats are held up toward 552.  It's as though the models don't integrate diabatic modulation of the tropospheric sounding because that does that every year/early spring when a warm up is in the 8-12 range - they edge the 850's on the cool side, and limit 2-m results.  Given that surface pressure pattern everywhere E of the Rockies and S of 55 N across the conus under said burgeoning ridge, in a world that has a decadal history of warmth explosions ...that seems like an overall candidate period for warmth to exceed present guidance. 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

What a furnace on the ensembles. Hopefully the fruit trees don’t wake up.

Legit concern especially if we get a late season cold snap.

Last year as you probably know we had no peaches and very few plums or cherries on trees around here.  The apple crop was also negatively impacted.  My friend owns Headwater Cider and he could barely press last year.  
Maple syrup season is also going to suck if the temperatures are not getting below freezing at night.

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