March 2024

[snowman19]

9 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

You're missing arctic air-most of the coast's biggest storms have an arctic outbreak ahead of them...even March 1998 had that.   Marginal cold will cut it in Jan/Feb but not March.

It’s denial and desperation at this point. They can’t let it go. Next weekend’s setup looks absolutely awful outside of interior, elevated northern New England. No cold, garbage airmass, approaching mid-March. Certain people are still chasing phantom snowstorms and cold and snow ghosts. It’s akin to someone who just lost a loved one and is in deep denial

[bluewave]

The new EC-AIFS looks like a better defined version of the EPS without the smoothing longer range. It would be great if it can correct some of the long range biases of the Euro and EPS. So it will be interesting to see going forward.

 

https://openmeteo.substack.com/p/artificial-intelligence-weather-model

The open-data weather forecasting landscape is experiencing a breath of fresh air with an exciting development the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

ECMWF Opens the Doors to AIFS: In a significant move towards open-data, ECMWF has made data from its cutting-edge artificial intelligence weather model (AIFS) publicly available. 

Unlike traditional numerical models, AIFS leverages Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), similar to those used in AI image generation, but with significantly more data. This shift, made possible by recent advancements in computing power, allows AIFS to learn complex weather patterns with high accuracy.

In recent years, several AI weather models have emerged, with Google's GraphCast gaining attention for surpassing even the world-renowned IFS model. However, AIFS now takes the crown, demonstrating superior accuracy as shown in the provided forecast performance chart below. While all models perform well in the short term (first few days), AI models like AIFS excel in longer-range forecasts, exceeding 5 days.

This development is a significant step forward for AI in weather forecasting, paving the way for more accurate and accessible weather information for everyone.

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

11 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

actually, I’m a skier. There’s a bunch of skiers on here and you may not want snow, but the lack of cold air up in the mountains is going to cut short a season that is very expensive.

 

Locally ski season goes until April 1. For those of us that buy season passes we bank on skiing several times in March.

More importantly, in an economically depressed state like New York, people in the Hudson Valley Catskills Adirindacks, depend on people skiing for four or five months of the year for their livelihood. there are a few other jobs up there outside of tourism

 

 

March has always been my favorite month in the mountains. Tons of snow, fully open terrain, slightly warmer weather and diminishing crowds. Not looking promising outside of the furthest north mountains, like White Face, Jay and Sugarloaf. Depending on how it plays out I may do a long weekend at sugarloaf.

[bluewave]

10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

For New York City:

Thanks for creating that chart. NYC would have more top 10 warmest months If they measured the temperatures the same way as before the 1990s. Switching to measurements under the fully leafed out trees during the warmer months since the 90s lowered the rankings of recent years. We can see how during the colder months when the leaves on the trees aren’t an issue, NYC has a similar amount of top 10 warmest months as the surrounding stations. But it has fallen behind during the summer when the deep shade artificially cools the readings since the 1990s. Plus NYC is also losing top 10s after the spring leaf out and before the fall leaf drop.
 

NYC top 10 warmest summers dense ranked by temperature 

https://www.sqltutorial.org/sql-window-functions/sql-dense_rank/

Summers since 2010 bolded

NYC 5 top 10 warmest temperature summers

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	77.8	0
2	1966	77.3	0
3	2005	77.1	0
4	2020	76.9	0
-	1993	76.9	0
-	1983	76.9	0
5	1949	76.8	0
6	2022	76.7	0
-	2016	76.7	0
-	1999	76.7	0
7	1988	76.6	0
-	1980	76.6	0
-	1906	76.6	0
8	1995	76.5	0
-	1944	76.5	0
9	2015	76.3	0
-	1991	76.3	0
-	1952	76.3	0
-	1943	76.3	0
-	1908	76.3	0
10	1994	76.2	0

LGA 8 top 10 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	79.5	0
2	2010	79.1	0
3	2016	78.8	0
4	2022	78.1	0
5	2005	78.0	0
6	2018	77.9	0
7	2021	77.5	0
-	1966	77.5	0
8	2006	77.4	0
-	1999	77.4	0
9	2019	77.3	0
-	2012	77.3	0
-	1991	77.3	0
10	1994	77.2	0

Newark 6 top 10

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	79.2	0
-	1993	79.2	0
2	2010	78.7	0
3	1994	78.5	0
4	2021	78.3	0
5	2011	78.0	0
6	2005	77.8	0
7	1988	77.7	0
8	2020	77.6	0
-	2016	77.6	0
-	1973	77.6	0
9	1999	77.1	0
10	1995	77.0	0

JFK 7 top 10 warmest

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	77.1	0
2	2016	76.5	0
3	2022	76.1	0
4	2015	76.0	0
5	2011	75.8	0
6	2020	75.7	0
7	1983	75.6	0
8	1984	75.4	0
9	2012	75.3	0
-	1991	75.3	0
10	1971	75.2	0
-	1949	75.2	0

BDR 10 top 10 warmest 
 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2016	75.4	0
2	2020	75.3	0
3	2010	75.0	0
4	2022	74.4	0
5	2018	74.3	0
6	2021	74.2	0
-	2012	74.2	0
7	2019	74.0	0
-	2011	74.0	0
-	1994	74.0	0
-	1993	74.0	0
8	2005	73.9	0
9	2013	73.8	0
-	1973	73.8	0
10	1949	73.7	0

ISP 10 top 10 warmest

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	74.7	0
2	2022	74.6	0
-	2020	74.6	0
3	1999	74.5	0
4	2016	74.4	0
5	2011	73.9	0
6	2019	73.8	0
7	2021	73.7	0
8	2018	73.5	0
-	2005	73.5	0
9	2013	73.4	0
10	2012	73.3	0
-	1991	73.3	0

 

[donsutherland1]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Thanks for creating that chart. NYC would have more top 10 warmest months If they measured the temperatures the same way as before the 1990s. Switching to measurements under the fully leafed out trees during the warmer months since the 90s lowered the rankings of recent years. We can see how during the colder months when the leaves on the trees aren’t an issue, NYC has a similar amount of top 10 warmest months as the surrounding stations. But it has fallen behind during the summer when the deep shade artificially cools the readings since the 1990s. Plus NYC is also losing top 10s after the spring leaf out and before the fall leaf drop.
 

NYC top 10 warmest summers dense ranked by temperature 

https://www.sqltutorial.org/sql-window-functions/sql-dense_rank/

Summers since 2010 bolded

NYC 5 top 10 warmest temperature summers

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	77.8	0
2	1966	77.3	0
3	2005	77.1	0
4	2020	76.9	0
-	1993	76.9	0
-	1983	76.9	0
5	1949	76.8	0
6	2022	76.7	0
-	2016	76.7	0
-	1999	76.7	0
7	1988	76.6	0
-	1980	76.6	0
-	1906	76.6	0
8	1995	76.5	0
-	1944	76.5	0
9	2015	76.3	0
-	1991	76.3	0
-	1952	76.3	0
-	1943	76.3	0
-	1908	76.3	0
10	1994	76.2	0

LGA 8 top 10 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2020	79.5	0
2	2010	79.1	0
3	2016	78.8	0
4	2022	78.1	0
5	2005	78.0	0
6	2018	77.9	0
7	2021	77.5	0
-	1966	77.5	0
8	2006	77.4	0
-	1999	77.4	0
9	2019	77.3	0
-	2012	77.3	0
-	1991	77.3	0
10	1994	77.2	0

Newark 6 top 10

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	79.2	0
-	1993	79.2	0
2	2010	78.7	0
3	1994	78.5	0
4	2021	78.3	0
5	2011	78.0	0
6	2005	77.8	0
7	1988	77.7	0
8	2020	77.6	0
-	2016	77.6	0
-	1973	77.6	0
9	1999	77.1	0
10	1995	77.0	0

JFK 7 top 10 warmest

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	77.1	0
2	2016	76.5	0
3	2022	76.1	0
4	2015	76.0	0
5	2011	75.8	0
6	2020	75.7	0
7	1983	75.6	0
8	1984	75.4	0
9	2012	75.3	0
-	1991	75.3	0
10	1971	75.2	0
-	1949	75.2	0

BDR 10 top 10 warmest 
 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2016	75.4	0
2	2020	75.3	0
3	2010	75.0	0
4	2022	74.4	0
5	2018	74.3	0
6	2021	74.2	0
-	2012	74.2	0
7	2019	74.0	0
-	2011	74.0	0
-	1994	74.0	0
-	1993	74.0	0
8	2005	73.9	0
9	2013	73.8	0
-	1973	73.8	0
10	1949	73.7	0

ISP 10 top 10 warmest

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2010	74.7	0
2	2022	74.6	0
-	2020	74.6	0
3	1999	74.5	0
4	2016	74.4	0
5	2011	73.9	0
6	2019	73.8	0
7	2021	73.7	0
8	2018	73.5	0
-	2005	73.5	0
9	2013	73.4	0
10	2012	73.3	0
-	1991	73.3	0

 

I agree. The trees have undercut the summer high temperatures. The trend in Central Park's summer high temperatures has diverged from those at nearby locations, further illustrating the cooling impact of the trees.

[SACRUS]

 

45 and rain.  Sunday the nicest day of the next 9 - 10.  Partly sunny mid 60s - we'll see how much we clear out.  Beyond that rain looks to be the theme with cut off/ bowling mania the next week to two.  A day or two dry out but overall cloudy/rainy.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:
 

EWR: 78 (1972)
NYC: 72 (1972)
LGA:  67 (2004)


Lows:

EWR: 12 (1950)
NYC: 9 (1891)
LGA: 13 (1962)

 

Historical:

 

1846 - A great storm hit Virginia and the Carolinas. The storm caused half a million dollars damage, and in North Carolina drowned fifty families and a thousand cattle on Notts Island. (David Ludlum)

1927 - Raleigh, NC, was buried under 17.8 inches of snow in 24 hours, a record for that location. Nashville NC received 31 inches of snow. The average snow depth in the state of Carolina was fourteen inches. (The Weather Channel)

1975 - The governor's Tornado&puot; in Atlanta did considerable damage to the governor's mansion and surrounding areas resulting in three deaths and 56.5 million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)

 

1980: March 1-3rd, North Carolina experienced a significant winter storm with heavy snow across the entire state and near blizzard conditions in the eastern part of the state. Widespread snowfall totals of 12 to 18 inches were observed over Eastern North Carolina, with localized amounts ranging up to 22 inches at Morehead City and 25 inches at Elizabeth City, with unofficial reports of up to 30 inches at Emerald Isle and Cherry Point. 

1985 - A massive winter storm struck the Northern Plains Region. The storm produced up to 33 inches of snow in northeastern South Dakota, at Summit and at Milbank, and also produced high winds which whipped the heavy snow into drifts twenty feet high. (Storm Data)

1987 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. produced heavy snow in Maine, with 16 inches reported at West Grand Lake and Guilford. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the south central U.S. A tornado at Baton Rouge LA injured two persons, and another tornado caused five million dollars damage at the airport in Lafayette LA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Snow and high winds plagued the western U.S. Up to 16 inches of snow was reported south of Seattle WA, and more than two feet of snow blanketed the Sierra Nevada Range of California. Winds gusted to 89 mph at Hidden Peak UT, and reached 92 mph at Peavine CA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Mild weather continued across the northern tier of states. Highs of 52 degrees at Saint Johnsbury VT, 63 degrees at Olympia WA, and 64 degrees at Seattle WA were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

 

2005: Waterspouts were recorded in Redondo Beach in southern California. Pea size hail accumulated to a depth of one inch on Huntington Beach.

 

2012: The March 2 and 3, 2012, a deadly tornado outbreak occurred over a large section of the Southern United States into the Ohio Valley region. The storms resulted in 41 tornado-related fatalities, 22 of which occurred in Kentucky. Tornado-related deaths also occurred in Alabama, Indiana, and Ohio. The outbreak was the second deadliest in early March for the U.S. since official records began in 1950. Only the 1966 Candlestick Park tornado had a higher death toll for a tornadic system in early March.

 

 

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

March has always been my favorite month in the mountains. Tons of snow, fully open terrain, slightly warmer weather and diminishing crowds. Not looking promising outside of the furthest north mountains, like White Face, Jay and Sugarloaf. Depending on how it plays out I may do a long weekend at sugarloaf.

I want to get out again but guessing it won't be that great...on the plus side won't be crowded as many start to give up.

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, Fresh cold air said:

I am shocked 1977 isnt on the list for the park.  That was a brutal summer.  Notice hot the first half of the 1990s summers were except 1992.  I believe it was the effect of the Mt Pinatubo eruption that kept that summer so endlessly cool.

The summer of 1977 was cool by todays standards. People remember the 10 day heatwave in mid-July. But the rest of the summer was cool. 

[lee59]

For anyone interested, raging blizzard cam from Lake Tahoe:

 

https://hdontap.com/index.php/video/stream/cobblestone-center

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, Fresh cold air said:

Maybe statistically speaking when you crunch the raw numbers but july cracked 80 deg in 28 of the 31 days.  The 3 days that stayed below 80 featured rain.  August also had a 5 pack of 90s. By mid august though, the backbone of that summer was already being snapped.  So I get it that it cant compare to a summer like 1966 which was basically wire to wire brutally hot.  I believe 82 of the 92 days of the JJA period vere above 80.  If we had the night time low issues of todays climate, it would've been even worse.

The only real heat that summer was the memorable heatwave in mid-July. The summer average was cool compared to our warmer summers since 2010. Those 70s heatwaves lacked the staying power that we get regularly today. The NYC summer monthly departures for todays climate in 1977  were -1.8,+1.5, and -0.4.
 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jun	Jul	Aug	Season
Mean	73.4	80.1	77.4	77.0
2023	71.6	80.6	76.7	76.3
2022	74.4	82.6	80.5	79.2
2021	76.2	78.8	80.0	78.3
2020	74.4	80.8	77.7	77.6
2019	72.7	80.6	76.2	76.5
2018	72.1	78.2	79.2	76.5
2017	72.7	77.3	74.0	74.7
2016	72.9	79.9	79.9	77.6
2015	72.0	79.0	78.7	76.6
2014	72.8	77.0	74.5	74.8
2013	73.3	80.9	74.7	76.3
2012	72.4	80.8	77.6	76.9
2011	74.5	82.7	76.9	78.0
2010	76.2	82.3	77.7	78.7

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jun	Jul	Aug	Season
Mean	71.6	77.0	76.2	74.9
1979	69.3	77.0	76.6	74.3
1978	71.6	75.0	76.6	74.4
1977	70.3	78.1	75.1	74.5
1976	73.6	74.9	74.4	74.3
1975	71.6	76.9	75.0	74.5
1974	70.1	77.1	76.4	74.5
1973	74.6	78.6	79.6	77.6
1972	68.8	77.9	75.9	74.2
1971	74.8	77.7	76.0	76.2

 

 

[psv88]

Other than Sunday the next 10 days looks HORRENDOUS

[MJO812]

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The CMC and ICON have all rain

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The CMC and ICON have all rain

Good for them.  With a negative NAO and AO this should be colder than the CMC and Icon. 

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Good for them.  With a negative NAO and AO this should be colder than the CMC and Icon. 

Right, just go with the coldest and snowiest model and say it’s correct. Its been God awful all winter long. Beyond dreadful and has a severe cold bias. 
 

 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Right, just go with the coldest and snowiest model and say it’s correct. Its been God awful all winter long. Beyond dreadful and has a severe cold bias. 
 

 

LOL

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Good for them.  With a negative NAO and AO this should be colder than the CMC and Icon. 

Not cold enough in mid March with no arctic air and MJO 4-5-6-7

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The CMC and ICON have all rain

The last time people humped the warm icon I got 9 inches of snow and the GFS outperformed it and everything else including the euro when it shit itself inside of 48 hrs. 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Not cold enough in mid March with no arctic air and MJO 4-5-6-7

This is still in the long range 

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

This is still in the long range 

To paraphrase a famous economist:  In the long range, we are all warm.

[NEG NAO]

22 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

The last time people humped the warm icon I got 9 inches of snow and the GFS outperformed it and everything else including the euro when it shit itself inside of 48 hrs. 

the reason the GFS is showing snow here is that the storm redevelops off the coast and 850 below freezing but the surface temps are above freezing

[NEG NAO]

the CMC even has it cold enough at 850 when the GFS shows snow But the surface is above freezing

[donsutherland1]

Some points about the 12z GFS's Day 8-9 Storm:

1. The GFS is in a timeframe where skill is low
2. The GFS lacks support from other global models and the ensembles
3. The GFS's soundings show readings remaining above freezing throughout the storm

New York City's Above Freezing Snowfalls:

In short, unless there is more than a marginal air mass and strong support from the other guidance, one should be skeptical of the snowfall amount (7.8") shown on the GFS. Ratios for any snow would be far lower than 10:1.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some points about the 12z GFS's Day 8-9 Storm:

1. The GFS is in a timeframe where skill is low
2. The GFS lacks support from other global models and the ensembles
3. The GFS's soundings show readings remaining above freezing throughout the storm

New York City's Above Freezing Snowfalls:

In short, unless there is more than a marginal air mass and strong support from the other guidance, one should be skeptical of the snowfall amount (7.8") shown on the GFS. Ratios for any snow would be far lower than 10:1.

but the GFS and CMC have it cold enough aloft at 850 at hour 204 as I illustrated a couple posts above - and we already have had a storm this winter with ratio;s closer to 5:1 and surface above freezing

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some points about the 12z GFS's Day 8-9 Storm:

1. The GFS is in a timeframe where skill is low
2. The GFS lacks support from other global models and the ensembles
3. The GFS's soundings show readings remaining above freezing throughout the storm

New York City's Above Freezing Snowfalls:

In short, unless there is more than a marginal air mass and strong support from the other guidance, one should be skeptical of the snowfall amount (7.8") shown on the GFS. Ratios for any snow would be far lower than 10:1.

Thanks for the reality check. There's very little cold air to speak of around the area going into this storm, so any storm we'd have would have to manufacture its own through crashing heights. If there's heavy snow the temp should crash to 32-33 but we'd probably waste some/a lot on white rain and getting it to accumulate. And of course this is at Day 8 anyway. 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

but the GFS and CMC have it cold enough aloft at 850 at hour 204 as I illustrated a couple posts above - and we already have had a storm this winter with ratio;s closer to 5:1 and surface above freezing

The heaviest precipitation is finished by 204 hours, even as it's cold enough for snow. Hours 204-210 might be sufficient for 1"-2", if the model output is right. But at this point in time, it's speculative given the lack of other support and timeframe involved. My point is that the 7.8" total is unlikely without dramatic changes.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The heaviest precipitation is finished by 204 hours, even as it's cold enough for snow. Hours 204-210 might be sufficient for 1"-2", if the model output is right. But at this point in time, it's speculative given the lack of other support and timeframe involved. My point is that the 7.8" total is unlikely without dramatic changes.

agree we don't have any idea this far away the details about how this storm is going to actually track and redevelop way too early for those details.........

 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Fresh cold air said:

Don, I would sign now for 2.5 in the park!  I want the record to not be broken.  Wouldn't it be ironically wild if we get the needed snow in April lol

no one was expecting the April 1982 Blizzard after a mild period previous to the storm

A Severe April Blizzard Stunned The Northeast in 1982 | NY NJ PA Weather

 

[snowman19]

EURO/CMC/ICON vs GFS….but let’s believe the GFS because it has snow