Stormlover74 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: So amazing, even though it was really bad. I guess it could happen again since it also seems to have happened in January 2008 lol Jan 08 we didnt have cold air in place and we were relying on precip on the back side. Many of the models didn't have snow. I think the gfs and nam were on their own 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 32 minutes ago, Fresh cold air said: I also recall poor Henry Marguisity from accuweather getting attacked that winter 2007-08 on the accu boards. I couldnt believe how nasty some people were getting when they didnt get their snow lol! That winter was always 2 weeks away like recent ones. I would hope people have learned at this point but some refuse to. We've been chasing the "big pattern" since Thanksgiving this year....If it doesn't come by the end of January it's not likely coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 2 hours ago, Fresh cold air said: For the record, I do certainly believe there is background warming occurring globally. Just look at the data. It doesnt lie! However, what I dont necessarily agree with is that it is being caused by our suv's. I dont think the coldest and snowier winters are gone forever. They wil return again. The only problem is that it may take a decent while before they do. Until that time, we have to hope we can get that solid winter to appear between all the duds. Check out winter 1931-32 for nyc. When looking at the 90 day period of meteorological winter, it mayvhave been worse than what we had recently. The point being that warmth was impressive for the climate background of that era. 31-32 was a warm outlier for that much colder era. Now we get 40° winter months or 40° average winters nearly every year around NYC. There is much more than background warming occurring when we have seen an historic 9 warmer to record winters in row. The area is more than +3° above any previous 30 year winter average temperature over nearly the last decade. Why is it so hard to believe that CO2 causes the planet to warm up? The first studies were done in the 1800s on this topic. NYC hasn’t had a winter average temperature below 30° since the 1970s. So the much warmer climate makes this an unlikely occurrence barring some major volcanic eruption. As winters have been steadily warming over time, our area has had more all or nothing type snowfall winters since the 1990s. Either above average or below average snowfall with almost no median seasons for places like Long Island. Those more average snowfall seasons were much more common before the 1990s. The risk with the all or nothing track we have been on since the 1990s is that the nothing will become a more common outcome with continued warming. But like we saw in 21-22, we can still score some more above average snowfall seasons along the way. Nearly every snowfall season on Long Island since the 90s has been under 15” or over 30”. The 20s season common before the 90s is almost non-existent at places like Islip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 44 minutes ago, Fresh cold air said: Not doubting the current warmer regime now. I do really believe the colder winters will return at some point. Same thing goes for snow. I remember the 80s as you are referring to when the global warming talk really ramped up. As a matter of fact, I vividly recall the front page headline on Discover magazine in 1988 saying Endless Summer. Snowfall was lame as a whole in the 1980s. However, the cold still was there at times, especially in the first half of the 80s. Then the crappy winters that followed for 5 years until superstorm 93 featured all the talk that winter as we know it would be confined to a shortened season. Then 1993-94 comes along and 1995-96 (with a dud sandwiched in between lol) and suddenly its game on again. However, it was short lived and all the chatter started once again in the late 90s into the new century that our grand kids will never get to see snow or no what snow is etc. Then 2002-03 arrives and this time we can piece 4 straight 40+ inch winters together. I look at 2000-01 as similar to 2020-21 in trying to get the good times rolling again. 2021-22 was decent and certainly better that 2001-02 was. This time though we have not been able to hit any jackpots yet since 2020-21. As decent as that winter was for snow, when you examine its temperatures, its really nothing to brag about. And I am aware that even though we have had banner snow seasons this century, the avg temps have been much warmer than the 1970s and back as you stated. Again, I dont dispute the current warming. I just have my doubts as to the cause. Another decade of these duds and I may be much more convinced. We need that nina to stay weak to moderate. If it rages, it could be the kiss of death for next winter. While it’s always possible to eventually have a colder winter or series of winters again, the coldest winters have been steadily warming over time. None of our colder winters since the late 1970s can come close to a winter like 76-77 for the magnitude and duration of that cold. Our coldest recent winter in 14-15 had 60s on Christmas and NYC averaged 40.5° in December. The last top 10 coldest month in February 2015 was answered by over 30 top 10 warmest months around the region throughout the year since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 It’s still crazy to me how we got Feb 2015 and Dec 2015 in the same year. Record cold in one winter month and the following winter month being so warm it’d rank among the warmest Novembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Nam keeps giving us an inch+ for Saturday. Gfs and other models much drier/south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Did you ever see a forecast like this? Sierra Nevada north of Tahoe Tonight Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 23. Windy, with a southwest wind 34 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 22 to 28 inches possible. Friday Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Widespread blowing snow. High near 28. Windy, with a southwest wind 34 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 30 to 36 inches possible. Friday Night Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 18. Wind chill values as low as -1. Windy, with a southwest wind 38 to 41 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 36 to 42 inches possible. Saturday Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Widespread blowing snow. High near 22. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a southwest wind 30 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 17. Windy, with a southwest wind 26 to 33 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible. Sunday Snow showers likely, mainly before 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Sunday Night A 50 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 47 minutes ago, Fresh cold air said: We gotta find a way to get the park to 10 inches. Bastardi still thinks March 11th through April 10th will have wild moments lol. Keep expectations low and maybe we can preserve the statistic of never back to back winters in nyc with single digit snowfall. Unfortunately it's just rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Here is a webcam of Truckee California for anyone interested. They expect about 5 feet of snow over the next 3 days. https://hdontap.com/index.php/video/stream/downtown-truckee-california Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Just now, Fresh cold air said: Hilarious that snow showers are bringing 2+ feet lol! Could be heavy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Cmc and gfs has a storm in mid March. I would favor the interior but keep an eye on it with the NAO and AO going down and the PNA rising. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 58 minutes ago, lee59 said: Did you ever see a forecast like this? Sierra Nevada north of Tahoe Tonight Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 23. Windy, with a southwest wind 34 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 47 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 22 to 28 inches possible. Friday Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Widespread blowing snow. High near 28. Windy, with a southwest wind 34 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 30 to 36 inches possible. Friday Night Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 18. Wind chill values as low as -1. Windy, with a southwest wind 38 to 41 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 36 to 42 inches possible. Saturday Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Widespread blowing snow. High near 22. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a southwest wind 30 to 32 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible. Saturday Night Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 17. Windy, with a southwest wind 26 to 33 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible. Sunday Snow showers likely, mainly before 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 23. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 9 to 13 inches possible. Sunday Night A 50 percent chance of snow showers, mainly before 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. If you add up all the "new snow accumulation" that's like 14 feet?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 road trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 10 hours ago, Fresh cold air said: That is absolutely fact! However, wire to wire winters for the DJF 90 day period werent too common. 1976-77 snapped on a dime about a week into feb and the shades were closed. Same in 2010-11 as far as snow is concerned once that early feb ice storm failed to be memorable. I thought for sure nyc being at about 60 inches in early feb would overtake 1995-96. Wasnt to be. If there were 2 or 3 inches the rest of the way it was a lot! The biggest problem with the arctic outbreaks today is their ability to have significant staying power. That is the most noticeable difference pre 1985. I will include the early 80s because both dec 1980 and dec 1983 featured wicked arctic outbreaks as did Jan 1985 Arctic outbreaks are getting much shorter and covering a smaller geographic region than they used to. We can still get stronger Arctic outbreaks from time to time but they don’ have the lasting power, geographic coverage, and intensity like they did up through around 1994. One of the more interesting events was the Valentines Day Arctic outbreak of 2016. This was the first time an Arctic outbreak below 0° in NYC occurred during a 40° winter. We couldn’t even pull off below 0° during February 2015. So these days we have Arctic outbreaks surrounded by 60° days which was much rarer in the old days when we had much more extended cold. We can remember the brief single digits Arctic shot last winter and the 60° days surrounding. So we can still get very cold days from time to time. But it’s been very difficult since 14-15 to get extended cold. A great example of this was the impressive cold from after Christmas in 2017 into early January. If this had occurred 30 years earlier in a colder climate, then the whole winter would have finished with below normal temperatures. Instead the temperatures rebounded to all-time winter warmth of 80° which was much more impressive vs the long term records that the cold around Christmas was. So the average in February close to 40° resulted in a warmer than average winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Winter futility through March 1st. Winter 2023-2024 would rank 5th. Snowfall following winters with mean temperatures of 40.0° or above in New York City has been low for the remainder of snow season. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 8 hours ago, MJO812 said: Cmc and gfs has a storm in mid March. I would favor the interior but keep an eye on it with the NAO and AO going down and the PNA rising. MJO is in 4-5-6 so I'd expect all this to trend warmer. NAO is just trapping PAC air so that's no good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: MJO is in 4-5-6 so I'd expect all this to trend warmer. NAO is just trapping PAC air so that's no good. We’re done. Still no arctic cold anywhere to be found on our side of the hemisphere on 3/15. People still holding onto “winter isn’t over, snow and cold is coming mid-late March” is the equivalent of Kate Winslet not letting go of Leonardo DiCaprio after the Titanic had already sunk 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: We’re done. Still no arctic cold anywhere to be found on our side of the hemisphere on 3/15. People still holding onto “winter isn’t over, snow and cold is coming mid-late March” is the equivalent of Kate Winslet not letting go of Leonardo DiCaprio after the Titanic had already sunk It's amazing. How long have some of these people been following weather yet you still see the same ol posts every year.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Wet Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Wet Saturday back to last fall's weekend rainouts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: back to last fall's weekend rainouts... Sunday afternoon looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Today is the last sunny day for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 February temperatures: Central Park 40.1 Newark 39.7 LaGuardia 39.6 Kennedy 37.8 Islip 36.1 Westchester 34.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: It's amazing. How long have some of these people been following weather yet you still see the same ol posts every year.... Yea imagine reading the same posts over and over? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 35 minutes ago, Fresh cold air said: I stongly urge everyone to go and look for themselves. Starting with the winter 1948-49 through about 1960, there were many torchy winter months in there for nyc. In fact, its quite noticeable how the cold that did come durinf this time frame was much more ordinary and didnt last as long as it did before this time frame. Yes, there were a few decent months just like now we had Jan 2022, jan 2018, feb 2021, etc, the overall theme was mild. Now perhaps 1949 to 1960 would have been even warmer if it occurred now but we all know what happened when the 60s and 70s arrived. I am wondering if the extreme winters return where we hit the single digits at night regularly arrive in the coming years, maybe they arrive as lows in the teens in today's climate. And that would still be cold enough to provide potential for fun and games. Nobody is saying we won’t have cold winters ever again. But I guess people hear what they want to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 It didn’t even take 10 years to surpass the CONUS warm record set in 15-16. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Gfs to our north shows a snowstorm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs to our north shows a snowstorm Good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Good for them. And for us. Pattern doesn't look bad. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Nice snow event on cmc 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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