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March 2024


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10 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

before it looked like thursday would be the wetter day now it looks like it may be wednesday still a good soaking coming up..

models are mostly dry tomorrow outside of some drizzle here and there

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7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t think it’s going to just be dry heat, not with the record soil moisture we have. It’s probably going to be humid as hell

IF we can go a few weeks while everything is leafing out with minimal rain and a fair bit of wind the top few feet will dry out nicely. 

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Another storm will bring rain to the region from tomorrow night into at least late Thursday. A general 0.50" - 1.50" appears likely. The closing days of March could turn warmer with widespread readings in the upper 50s.

It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.35°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is continuing to fade with the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly going negative for the first time since the week centered around January 25, 2023. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -5.17 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.560 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 48.0° (5.3° above normal).

 

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6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think models will shift back west tomorrow. 

Already seeing signs of that tonight with Icon & Nam 

Yep. HRRR tonight is pretty far west for Thursday too. We can hope all we want for the east trend, but that goes against what usually happens. 

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8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think models will shift back west tomorrow. 

Already seeing signs of that tonight with Icon & Nam 

As is, areas east of the city get a good soaking-it's down to really whether NJ and the LHV get much

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Parts of the area could go over 12.00 on the month with this event and a bunch over 10.00.

 

Data for March 1, 2024 through March 27, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Total Precipitation 
NY SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.93
CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 10.83
NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.51
CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.46
CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.34
CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.23
NY DEER PARK 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 10.18
CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 10.12
CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 10.05
NY ST. JAMES COOP 9.93
CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 9.93
CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 9.90
NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 9.89
CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 9.83
NY NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.82
CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 9.80
NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 9.79
CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 9.76
CT GUILFORD COOP 9.63
CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 9.63
NY MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.59
CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 9.56
NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.52
NY MALVERNE 0.5 SE CoCoRaHS 9.46
NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 9.34
CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.31
NY CENTERPORT COOP 9.29
CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 9.27
CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 9.24
NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 9.22
CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.21
CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 9.20
NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 9.20
CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 9.20
CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 9.14
CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 9.12
CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.11
CT ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 9.11
NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.10
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32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

6z Nam has rain all day tomorrow 

Easy call for Phillies and Mets to move their respective openers to Friday.     Playing up here in March is silly-play first 10 days of season in domes or down south

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23 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

on the positive side a ridge this strong will bring down arctic high pressure and keep us clear for the eclipse maybe?

 

I am hoping the EPS idea of the pattern drying out during the eclipse week is correct. But a daily forecast that far out will always be low skill. 
 

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For only the 6th time since records were being kept, Central Park will finish in top 10 for both monthly temperature and monthly precipitation in the same month. 

Previous times:

* January 1937 (8th Temp: 40.2, 10th Prec: 5.97")

* November 2006 (8th Temp: 51.9, 9th Prec: 7.34")

* March 2010 (6th Temp: 48.2, 1st Prec: 10.69")

* April 2023 (2nd Temp: 57.6, 6th Prec: 7.70")

* December 2023 (2nd Temp: 44.6, 9th Prec: 6.66" )

* March 2024 (9th/10th Temp - TBD, Currently 5th for all of March Prch: Currently: 8.24")

 

I don't know if this falls under coincidence or trend, but 6 times in 150 years, followed by it happening 3x in 12 months is really astounding.

- Over 30% Of all top 10 temp months have occurred since 2010  (38/120) 

= Over 25% (28/108) of all months in the last 9 years (April 2015 - March 2024) are now one of the top 10 temperatures for it's respective month. 

 

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