forkyfork Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 nam a little west. my hunch is that the cutoff winds up somewhere near the delaware river 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 East winds and a damp 49 degrees, some breaks in the sun. More of the same tomorrow with rain later and Thu - we'll see how east the heaviest rains 1 - 3 inches stay. Easter weekend times/dry and clear - quite nice. Trough by the start of next month and chilly 4/3 - 4/5. Overall looks active wet and likely on the below side of normal through the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 RGEM looked pretty far east with the rain late week. Good. Keep it away 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 25 minutes ago, jm1220 said: RGEM looked pretty far east with the rain late week. Good. Keep it away Weird it has one strip west and one east. But the main band looks more like the Euro/Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 23 minutes ago, jm1220 said: RGEM looked pretty far east with the rain late week. Good. Keep it away I swear these people who love rain so much probably had ancestors who were crossbred with ducks.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 52 minutes ago, SACRUS said: East winds and a damp 49 degrees, some breaks in the sun. More of the same tomorrow with rain later and Thu - we'll see how east the heaviest rains 1 - 3 inches stay. Easter weekend times/dry and clear - quite nice. Trough by the start of next month and chilly 4/3 - 4/5. Overall looks active wet and likely on the below side of normal through the 10th. early forecast for the eclipse Tony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 GFS a bit east and CMC about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: early forecast for the eclipse Tony? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 11 minutes ago, uofmiami said: I've never seen a map of this type before-- thanks so much! Am I reading this correctly though-- the closer to white, the more chances of clouds? Does this mean that upstate NY has more and more clouds the further north you go and so does eastern Long Island? 97% cloud cover for Scranton? 75% for Binghamton and 87% for Syracuse? 88% cloud cover for western Long Island but only 27% cloud cover for Williamsport, PA? And I see when you go up the Hudson Valley there is a sweet spot but that doesn't seem to be in the zone of totality? Is that 57% at Saratoga Springs? Best bet is north central and western PA north of Pittsburgh and eastern Ohio near the PA border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I've never seen a map of this type before-- thanks so much! Am I reading this correctly though-- the closer to white, the more chances of clouds? Does this mean that upstate NY has more and more clouds the further north you go and so does eastern Long Island? 97% cloud cover for Scranton? 75% for Binghamton and 87% for Syracuse? 88% cloud cover for western Long Island but only 27% cloud cover for Williamsport, PA? And I see when you go up the Hudson Valley there is a sweet spot but that doesn't seem to be in the zone of totality? Is that 57% at Saratoga Springs? Best bet is north central and western PA north of Pittsburgh and eastern Ohio near the PA border? another thing, this forecast is for 1 PM local time, totality is at around 3:20 to 3:30 PM is it possible that clear area will move further east in that time to reach at least NE PA up to Syracuse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: another thing, this forecast is for 1 PM local time, totality is at around 3:20 to 3:30 PM is it possible that clear area will move further east in that time to reach at least NE PA up to Syracuse? It’s 320 hours out. Who knows how conditions end up that far out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I've never seen a map of this type before-- thanks so much! Am I reading this correctly though-- the closer to white, the more chances of clouds? Does this mean that upstate NY has more and more clouds the further north you go and so does eastern Long Island? 97% cloud cover for Scranton? 75% for Binghamton and 87% for Syracuse? 88% cloud cover for western Long Island but only 27% cloud cover for Williamsport, PA? And I see when you go up the Hudson Valley there is a sweet spot but that doesn't seem to be in the zone of totality? Is that 57% at Saratoga Springs? Best bet is north central and western PA north of Pittsburgh and eastern Ohio near the PA border? Yes, you want less white if you want to see the eclipse. 12Z run is coming in now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 11 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Yes, you want less white if you want to see the eclipse. 12Z run is coming in now. Thanks, Hopefully we can get a run that's closer to 3 PM on that day....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 12 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It’s 320 hours out. Who knows how conditions end up that far out. large scale features like fronts should be in that general area though right? it's probably easier to predict the general location of a front as opposed to a rain/snow line I would think... a lot of outlets like TWC, Accuweather, etc, are putting out maps like this now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 4 hours ago, Allsnow said: Yeah, ridge is flexing I have a feeling that we are going to see the SE ridge start rearing its ugly head in a real big way in about a month from now. This summer may be brutal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I have a feeling that we are going to see the SE ridge start rearing its ugly head in a real big way in about a month from now. This summer may be brutal why would hot and dry be brutal? that would be amazing actually. Let's go 1983/2010 redux! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks, Hopefully we can get a run that's closer to 3 PM on that day....? 12Z GFS is cloudy so far out FWIW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Records: Highs: EWR: 84 (2021) NYC: 82 (2021) LGA: 82 (2021) Lows: EWR: 19 (1960) NYC: 20 (1960) LGA: 20 (1960) Historical: 1913 - The Ohio River Basin flood reached a peak. Ten inch rains over a wide area of the Ohio River Basin inundated cities in Ohio, drowning 467 persons, and causing 147 million dollars damage. The Miami River at Dayton reached a level eight feet higher than ever before. The flood, caused by warm weather and heavy rains, was the second mostly deadly of record for the nation. (David Ludlum) 1948: Good Friday tornadoes moved from Terre Haute to Redkey, Indiana killing 20 people. About 80% of the town of Coatesville was destroyed, and 16 people were killed. The Coatesville Carnegie Library was a total loss. The path was a half mile wide. 1954 - The temperature at Allaket, AK, plunged to 69 degrees below zero. (The Weather Channel) 1971 - Parts of northern and central Georgia experienced their worst snow and ice storm since 1935. Two day power outages ruined two million eggs at poultry hatches. Two persons were killed when a tree landed on their car. (25th-26th) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A cold front crossing the Plateau Region produced high winds in Utah causing some property damage. Winds gusted to 51 mph at Salt Lake City. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Twenty cities in the southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 73 degrees at Flagstaff AZ, 90 degrees at Sacramento CA, 95 degrees at Santa Maria CA, 95 degrees at Los Angeles CA, 99 degrees at Tucson AZ, and 100 degrees at Phoenix AZ set records for March. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - The Easter Bunny brought record warm temperatures to the central U.S. while such records were still welcome. A dozen cities reported record warm readings, including Dodge City KS with an afternoon high of 88 degrees. Strong southerly winds gusted to 51 mph at Dodge City, and reached 55 mph at Salina KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Fair weather prevailed across the nation for the second day in a row. Freezing temperatures were reported in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region in the wake of an early spring snowstorm. Afternoon highs were again in the 70s and 80s in the southeastern U.S., and for the ninth day in a row, temperatures in the southwestern U.S. reached the 90s. (The National Weather Summary) 2009: The proof is in the pudding - A NOAA Weather Radio can save your life. Near Belk, AL, a family was alerted to a tornado by their weather radio; they went to their storm cellar. They heard the "jet roar" of the EF1 tornado as it damaged their home; they were unhurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 3 minutes ago, uofmiami said: 12Z GFS is cloudy so far out FWIW. wow I have to get used to these maps lol, when I see so much plain white my immediate thought is clear skies. Did this one actually get cloudier than the previous run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 5 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Records: Highs: EWR: 84 (2021) NYC: 82 (2021) LGA: 82 (2021) Lows: EWR: 19 (1960) NYC: 20 (1960) LGA: 20 (1960) Historical: 1913 - The Ohio River Basin flood reached a peak. Ten inch rains over a wide area of the Ohio River Basin inundated cities in Ohio, drowning 467 persons, and causing 147 million dollars damage. The Miami River at Dayton reached a level eight feet higher than ever before. The flood, caused by warm weather and heavy rains, was the second mostly deadly of record for the nation. (David Ludlum) 1948: Good Friday tornadoes moved from Terre Haute to Redkey, Indiana killing 20 people. About 80% of the town of Coatesville was destroyed, and 16 people were killed. The Coatesville Carnegie Library was a total loss. The path was a half mile wide. 1954 - The temperature at Allaket, AK, plunged to 69 degrees below zero. (The Weather Channel) 1971 - Parts of northern and central Georgia experienced their worst snow and ice storm since 1935. Two day power outages ruined two million eggs at poultry hatches. Two persons were killed when a tree landed on their car. (25th-26th) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A cold front crossing the Plateau Region produced high winds in Utah causing some property damage. Winds gusted to 51 mph at Salt Lake City. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Twenty cities in the southwestern U.S. reported new record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 73 degrees at Flagstaff AZ, 90 degrees at Sacramento CA, 95 degrees at Santa Maria CA, 95 degrees at Los Angeles CA, 99 degrees at Tucson AZ, and 100 degrees at Phoenix AZ set records for March. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - The Easter Bunny brought record warm temperatures to the central U.S. while such records were still welcome. A dozen cities reported record warm readings, including Dodge City KS with an afternoon high of 88 degrees. Strong southerly winds gusted to 51 mph at Dodge City, and reached 55 mph at Salina KS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Fair weather prevailed across the nation for the second day in a row. Freezing temperatures were reported in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region in the wake of an early spring snowstorm. Afternoon highs were again in the 70s and 80s in the southeastern U.S., and for the ninth day in a row, temperatures in the southwestern U.S. reached the 90s. (The National Weather Summary) 2009: The proof is in the pudding - A NOAA Weather Radio can save your life. Near Belk, AL, a family was alerted to a tornado by their weather radio; they went to their storm cellar. They heard the "jet roar" of the EF1 tornado as it damaged their home; they were unhurt. wow I didn't remember we had mid 80s temps in March in 2021.... another nearly snowless winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wow I have to get used to these maps lol, when I see so much plain white my immediate thought is clear skies. Did this one actually get cloudier than the previous run? From 6Z to 12Z runs, yes. Again this is so far out you could flip a coin, but just showing what the GFS is forecasting way out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Just now, uofmiami said: From 6Z to 12Z runs, yes. Again this is so far out you could flip a coin, but just showing what the GFS is forecasting way out there. I wonder if other models are showing similar. As far as large scale features, what's going on-- is there a stalled front with a low moving along it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I wonder if other models are showing similar. As far as large scale features, what's going on-- is there a stalled front with a low moving along it? LP moving up into the Ohio Valley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why would hot and dry be brutal? that would be amazing actually. Let's go 1983/2010 redux! I don’t think it’s going to just be dry heat, not with the record soil moisture we have. It’s probably going to be humid as hell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 6 minutes ago, uofmiami said: LP moving up into the Ohio Valley thats the worst possible thing-- it means extensive cloud cover near the region of totality and any breaks in the clouds would be further east, near the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I don’t think it’s going to just be dry heat, not with the record soil moisture we have. It’s probably going to be humid as hell Then more like a 1983/2011 combo, those were two of our wettest years on record, with a lot of 90 degree heat and high humidity and 2011 had over 100 degrees in July, before we had another very wet month in August (wettest month on record for some.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: GFS a bit east and CMC about the same 12z Euro is east with Thursday's rain. It would be great if the east trend wins for a change instead of the usual NW/wetter winning. Would be nice if Thursday is mostly dry and the Mets can play their home opener, but I definitely wouldn't bet on that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Euro with a move even further east for Thurs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 EPS still is further W of op at 12Z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now