LibertyBell Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 4 hours ago, JetsPens87 said: It's on Thursday that's when his weekend begins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 1 hour ago, WX-PA said: bad luck negative nao are more likely in spring than winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 4 hours ago, JetsPens87 said: This will help alleviate the drought conditions I wish this was the path of totality for the eclipse.... and that we had clear skies that day. Today would actually have been perfect for the eclipse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: The sun and lack of wind today feels good Yeah 53 degrees here today felt great with the strong late march sunshine. I went outside with a sweatshirt on, but quickly took it off and worked with just a t-shirt on. Tomorrow won't be as comfortable since it will be cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I wish this was the path of totality for the eclipse.... and that we had clear skies that day. Today would actually have been perfect for the eclipse. yep it's a case of luck when it comes down to it...problem is there's usually 2-3 cloudy days in Western NY for every sunny one this time of year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: yep it's a case of luck when it comes down to it...problem is there's usually 2-3 cloudy days in Western NY for every sunny one this time of year... and even in Central NY. I was wondering how an ice free Lake Erie and Lake Ontario would impact things.... and I believe that would actually increase the chances of cloudiness and rainfall/snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 The recent chill has now moderated. However, additional rain is likely late in the week. At present, a general 0.50" - 1.50" appears likely. The closing days of March could turn warmer with widespread readings in the upper 50s. It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.35°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is continuing to fade with the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly going negative for the first time since the week centered around January 25, 2023. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was +1.82 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.180 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.9° (5.2° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave why do you think we keep getting a stronger passage in p8-1 outside DJF I guess the orientation of the marine heatwaves in the MJO 4-7 zones holds the convection there longer during the winter. Then the last 2 years the convection finally was able to shift at some point in March. Our last solid winter month here was Jan 22 when the MJO was able to linger in 8. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 The 18z GFS Op is wetter and further west for later this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 iirc the euro was a miss east with the last event until it got to about day 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 18z GEFS for later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 31 minutes ago, forkyfork said: iirc the euro was a miss east with the last event until it got to about day 4 I would be very surprised if this doesn't trend west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 37 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: 18z GEFS for later this week. Jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Major high tide bust (in the good direction) tonight along the beaches. It's coming in about a foot lower than modeled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 5 hours ago, Big Jims Videos said: Major high tide bust (in the good direction) tonight along the beaches. It's coming in about a foot lower than modeled. a bigger moon would have resulted in a bigger tide.... next time we may not get so lucky... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Heavy rain on 6z gfs for Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 28 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Heavy rain on 6z gfs for Thursday The never ending saga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 That 4 sigma 500 mb Greenland block in the forecast looks to be the strongest of the year so far. So a very active pattern will continue into early April. Spring will remain on hiatus for a while longer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: That 4 sigma 500 mb Greenland block in the forecast looks to be the strongest of the year so far. So a very active pattern will continue into early April. Spring will remain on hiatus for a while longer. Brutal… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 Looks like a SE ridge there-maybe the blocking can link up and give us warmth...LOL 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Looks like a SE ridge there-maybe the blocking can link up and give us warmth...LOL Yeah, ridge is flexing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Heavy rain on 6z gfs for Thursday Euro still a no 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 50 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Brutal… Yeah, strongest subsidence over the Maritime Continent for the whole year so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro still a no 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 6z GFS for comparision (CMC is very wet as well, ICON looks like EURO) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 55 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Brutal… Shows up right on schedule to trash the start of spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 51 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Looks like a SE ridge there-maybe the blocking can link up and give us warmth...LOL If there’s a big closed off low east of us the only result will be easterly winds and low clouds. We’d want some kind of westerly flow to warm us up and keep it dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 17 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah 53 degrees here today felt great with the strong late march sunshine. I went outside with a sweatshirt on, but quickly took it off and worked with just a t-shirt on. Tomorrow won't be as comfortable since it will be cloudy. it's actually nice today with partly sunny skies, looks like the rainy forecasts are getting less rainy with time less clouds too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 29 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If there’s a big closed off low east of us the only result will be easterly winds and low clouds. We’d want some kind of westerly flow to warm us up and keep it dry. it's party sunny and nice today, looks like the only day with rain is Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 1 hour ago, bluewave said: That 4 sigma 500 mb Greenland block in the forecast looks to be the strongest of the year so far. So a very active pattern will continue into early April. Spring will remain on hiatus for a while longer. on the positive side a ridge this strong will bring down arctic high pressure and keep us clear for the eclipse maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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