JetsPens87 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 55 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs is more amplified. Looks like another rainstorm possible Friday. 12Z EURO disagrees cold air kicks it east It's the LP in SE Canada. Thats really not ideal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 It will be interesting to track the evolving storm details for later in the week. It looks like there will be a powerful phase involved. So the timing will be important as to how much heavy rains the region can get. It is also forecast to generate an impressive wave break which could set up a strong Greenland block into early April. That would mean a continued stormy pattern and probably limit the number of 70° days until the blocking relaxes a bit. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to track the evolving storm details for later in the week. It looks like there will be a powerful phase involved. So the timing will be important as to how much heavy rains the region can get. It is also forecast to generate an impressive wave break which could set up a strong Greenland block into early April. That would mean a continued stormy pattern and probably limit the number of 70° days until the blocking relaxes a bit. It either phases or it acts as a kicker. Really no in between IMO. I'm not leaning one way or the other yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to track the evolving storm details for later in the week. It looks like there will be a powerful phase involved. So the timing will be important as to how much heavy rains the region can get. It is also forecast to generate an impressive wave break which could set up a strong Greenland block into early April. That would mean a continued stormy pattern and probably limit the number of 70° days until the blocking relaxes a bit. We'll have 4 days to dry out but that could certainly create some addiitonal flooding problems with the 3-4" of rain we received yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to track the evolving storm details for later in the week. It looks like there will be a powerful phase involved. So the timing will be important as to how much heavy rains the region can get. It is also forecast to generate an impressive wave break which could set up a strong Greenland block into early April. That would mean a continued stormy pattern and probably limit the number of 70° days until the blocking relaxes a bit. and then you have the Canadian solution possibility later in the week with enough cold air dragged into the system to change it to snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: and then you have the Canadian solution possibility later in the week with enough cold air dragged into the system to change it to snow I don't get why people are giving you weenies . There is cold air around on all the models. It's a possibility if we get a phase. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Right on cue 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I don't get why people are giving you weenies . There is cold air around on all the models. It's a possibility if we get a phase. I like mine with mustard on it........ 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Just now, NEG NAO said: I like mine with mustard on it........ Mustard ketchup relish and cheese for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Just now, JetsPens87 said: Mustard ketchup relish and cheese for me how about covered in snow ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Just now, NEG NAO said: how about covered in snow ? So....a chili dog??? I'll see myself out... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 57 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I don't get why people are giving you weenies . There is cold air around on all the models. It's a possibility if we get a phase. Don't do it to yourself. But I like the idea of a powerful system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 2 hours ago, JetsPens87 said: It either phases or it acts as a kicker. Really no in between IMO. I'm not leaning one way or the other yet. The two streams eventually phase on the EPS by the time it gets east of New England and becomes a potent 50/50 low. A sooner phase like the UK /CMC will just mean heavier rain totals than a later one further east of New England. Either way it looks like more rain for us later in the week. That low creates the wave break and Greenland block then the follow up systems behind are more opportunities for rain into April. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 7 hours ago, NEG NAO said: look what the Euro -AIFS cooked up for early next week Give it up. Winter’s over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Recent freezes and yesterday's massive rainstorm decimated the early Magnolia blossoms, stripped the Japanese Apricot trees of all their blossoms, and brought down many of the early cherry blossoms at the New York Botanical Garden. Nevertheless, nature continues to advance deeper into spring. The variety and number of blossoms continues to increase. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: I don't get why people are giving you weenies . There is cold air around on all the models. It's a possibility if we get a phase. It’s not turning into an I-95 snowstorm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 Just now, donsutherland1 said: Recent freezes and yesterday's massive rainstorm decimated the early Magnolia blossoms, stripped the Japanese Apricot trees of all their blossoms, and brought down many of the early cherry blossoms at the New York Botanical Garden. Nevertheless, nature continues to advance deeper into spring. The variety and number of blossoms continues to increase. Despite the freezes lately most of the buds appear to be intact here, so no real damage yet as I can tell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 This morning the temperature fell to 31° in New York City. It is possible that this morning will wind up becoming New York City's last freeze of the 2023-24 season. The normal last freeze occurs on March 29th. Moderation lies ahead, even as additional rain is likely late in the week. The closing days of March could turn warmer with widespread readings in the upper 50s. It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around March 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.42°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is now fading. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was -0.43 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.282 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 48.0° (5.3° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Give it up. Winter’s over I'd laugh if it does magically turn into a snow event...just to spite you. And it certainly can snow in late March & April but we're missing a key ingredient. A strong, cold high to our north. That's a must for snows this late for us. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 47 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'd laugh if it does magically turn into a snow event...just to spite you. And it certainly can snow in late March & April but we're missing a key ingredient. A strong, cold high to our north. That's a must for snows this late for us. Hes acting like it never snows in late March. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 On 3/17/2024 at 8:52 AM, donsutherland1 said: Week ahead numbers: March 18-24, 2024 was generally cool and very wet in the Middle Atlantic and Southern New England areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: Hes acting like it never snows in late March. You’ll still be wishcasting snow on Memorial Day weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 There's some high rainfall potential if things line up for later this week. Possibly another 2"+ storm but could be more if NW trends occur Case in point models are dumping 5-7" amounts towards Carolinas and Virginia. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: You’ll still be wishcasting snow on Memorial Day weekend I know my limits lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 Last month at this time 8% of the country had snow cover, as of yesterday 48% of the country had snow cover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 8 minutes ago, lee59 said: Last month at this time 8% of the country had snow cover, as of yesterday 48% of the country had snow cover. Approaching the middle of the pack for late March but lower than the record highs were seeing at this time last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: You’ll still be wishcasting snow on Memorial Day weekend Tell us you wouldn't enjoy a snowstorm at the end of May? Of course you would. I'll wishcast that storm right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Approaching the middle of the pack for late March but lower than the record highs were seeing at this time last year. Msp did well this past week… I know we were talking about the potential before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 25 Share Posted March 25 9 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Tell us you wouldn't enjoy a snowstorm at the end of May? Of course you would. I'll wishcast that storm right now This blocking pattern going into April looks legit. MJO 8-1 is teaming up with a wave break for Greenland blocking. While the higher elevations are always favored for April snows, this is the type of pattern that could produce a trace that doesn’t accumulate much closer to the coast. I guess it would be like what happened in May 2020. Late season blocks have been becoming more common in recent years. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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