Brian5671 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: 29 here and rain this weekend The story of the winter amazing how nothing worked out....hopefully better luck next year but I wouldn't count on it until we see some PAC changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: amazing how nothing worked out....hopefully better luck next year but I wouldn't count on it until we see some PAC changes Agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Dropped all the way to 21F early this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 What a wet pattern. We were lucky to have not much the last 2 weeks to dry out a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Low temp of 24 here. Horrible that we're looking at another big soaker on Saturday. I'm looking forward to Monday. Starting the vegetable garden that day and it looks like nice weather. Forecast is mid 50s, but with lots of sunshine I wouldn't be surprised if it's an overperformer with temps getting close to 60. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Can’t wait for the warm muggies and thunderstorms 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: What a wet pattern. We were lucky to have not much the last 2 weeks to dry out a bit. It dried out the top layer maybe, but water tables still high and definitely concerned about rivers tomorrow. We need a dry pattern that lasts for several months, and when it does rain it's not big soakers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 1 minute ago, JerseyWx said: It dried out the top layer maybe, but water tables still high and definitely concerned about rivers tomorrow. We need a dry pattern that lasts for several months, and when it does rain it's not big soakers. Yeah agree on all counts...after the last soaker we can water bubbling up out of the ground here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Can’t wait for the warm muggies and thunderstorms Me too. Right now I'm sick and tired of these big soaking rainstorms, but during the summer I'll be right here you you and Stormlover rooting hard for our area to be hit by thunderstorms. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 29 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Me too. Right now I'm sick and tired of these big soaking rainstorms, but during the summer I'll be right here you you and Stormlover rooting hard for our area to be hit by thunderstorms. I'll be in somerset/Franklin for the first part of summer while our kitchen is being renovated so of course plainfield will get nailed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I'll be in somerset/Franklin for the first part of summer while our kitchen is being renovated so of course plainfield will get nailed Look out “Queen City” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I’ll take 3-4” of rain while watching March madness. Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 ^ Imagine if that was going to be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 10 minutes ago, RedSky said: ^ Imagine if that was going to be snow Yes that would be much more fun to watch the games lol. But this gives me an excuse to be inside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 I didn’t believe they would make it at the beginning of March… But Belleayre made it and they are thriving on 3/22 with snow on way tonight. March is funny like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Looks like NYC only got down to 29°so it avoided the hard freeze some of the colder guidance was calling for. The GFS actually did better again that some of the other guidance which had mid 20s. So hopefully there won’t be much damage to the early blooms. Yeah, I got down to 28. Trees etc in bloom look unscaved. Many of the cherry blossoms were past peak anyway, and the later blooming varieties haven't opened yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 The blossoms here mostly look fine even though we got down to 24 last night. Guess they can be pretty hardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 51 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I didn’t believe they would make it at the beginning of March… But Belleayre made it and they are thriving on 3/22 with snow on way tonight. March is funny like that! VT/NH/ME look ok but have to wonder how many go other than season pass holders at this point... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 1 hour ago, dWave said: Yeah, I got down to 28. Trees etc in bloom look unscaved. Many of the cherry blossoms were past peak anyway, and the later blooming varieties haven't opened yet. The really damaging freeze around the region was last May when some spots in Upstate NY got down into the low 20s. https://www.wamc.org/2023-09-19/a-late-may-frost-caused-some-ny-farms-to-lose-most-of-their-apples The evening of May 17 Critz turned on a large frost fan which helps mix warmer air from above with cooler air at ground level to try and prevent frost forming on the flowering trees. Then the temperature dipped down to 23 degrees. "32 is okay," Critz said. "30, 29, you start having a little damage maybe 10 percent. You can go down to like 27 you'd be like 50% damage, but usually there's enough blossoms even if you lose 50% of them, you're still going to bear a good crop. Then it went down to 23 and just killed everything." The apples he does have, have a frost ring around them. These apples will be pressed to make sweet cider and hard cider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: The really damaging freeze around the region was last May when some spots in Upstate NY got down into the low 20s. https://www.wamc.org/2023-09-19/a-late-may-frost-caused-some-ny-farms-to-lose-most-of-their-apples The evening of May 17 Critz turned on a large frost fan which helps mix warmer air from above with cooler air at ground level to try and prevent frost forming on the flowering trees. Then the temperature dipped down to 23 degrees. "32 is okay," Critz said. "30, 29, you start having a little damage maybe 10 percent. You can go down to like 27 you'd be like 50% damage, but usually there's enough blossoms even if you lose 50% of them, you're still going to bear a good crop. Then it went down to 23 and just killed everything." The apples he does have, have a frost ring around them. These apples will be pressed to make sweet cider and hard cider. Last year or the year before GA had a very damaging freeze for the peach crop after a freeze hit right after our new normal much warmer than average “winter” started the growing season early. Maybe this will be a more frequent occurrence in this new climate normal with the growing season starting earlier and earlier but still prone to cold snaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 HRRR coming in very wet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 14 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Last year or the year before GA had a very damaging freeze for the peach crop after a freeze hit right after our new normal much warmer than average “winter” started the growing season early. Maybe this will be a more frequent occurrence in this new climate normal with the growing season starting earlier and earlier but still prone to cold snaps. If history is correct we will probably have another shot at a freeze in early April. However the MJO is moving back into the warm phases by then so maybe we get lucky and miss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 26 here last night. Looks like northern New England ski areas pick up a nice 1-2 feet of snow this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Last year or the year before GA had a very damaging freeze for the peach crop after a freeze hit right after our new normal much warmer than average “winter” started the growing season early. Maybe this will be a more frequent occurrence in this new climate normal with the growing season starting earlier and earlier but still prone to cold snaps. The worst hard freeze that I ever had in my garden back on the LI South Shore was in November 2017. We had just come off the warmest October on record with numerous days in the 70s and 80s. The 70s persisted into the first week of November. This allowed my garden to have one of my latest fall blooms. All the impatiens were really blooming strong like it was still mid-summer into November. My Encore Azaleas had a unusually good fall bloom also. So when we had 3 consecutive near record lows in the mid 20s around November 10th all the Impatiens and the Azalea blooms quickly shriveled up. The Azalea never came back the next spring so I had to replace it with some beautiful fountain grass which was much lower maintenance. That fall was a preview of the following winter into spring with the period of Arctic cold after Christmas coexisting with the historic February 80° warmth. So a continuation of the short Arctic outbreak pattern surrounded by much more impressive and longer lasting warmth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 A significant rainstorm will drench the region tomorrow. Much of the region will set daily rainfall records for March 23rd, as a storm brings a windswept 2.00"-4.00" of rain with locally higher amounts to the region. Significant coastal flooding at high tide, along with beach erosion is likely. Following the rainstorm, March 2024 will rank among the 10 wettest Marches on record in New York City. In addition, 66% of the top 10 wettest months will have occurred since 2000, even as the 2000s account for just 16% of months in New York City's climate record. Top 10 wettest and warmest months are both disproportionately represented by the 2000s. Milder air will also begin to return during the weekend. The closing days of March could turn warmer. However, the kind of warmth that occurred earlier in March is unlikely. It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around March 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.42°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is now fading. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +7.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.698 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 48.1° (5.4° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: HRRR coming in very wet RGEM continues to nail MBY but some of the hi res models especially are worst over the usual suspect NJ/Hudson Valley areas. I'll be perfectly fine with getting relatively spared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 All 2.0" Mar daily precip events for NYC (incl snow for several) 2-day totals inserted into ranks if not same rank as event _ 2d totals do not count Feb or Apr (2.34" Feb 29 - Mar 1 1896 included 2.26" Feb 29; 2.32" Mar 31 - Apr 1 1997 in table 2.07" 1d) Rank __ Precip ____ Date _______ snow ___ 2d totals if any additional _ 01 ___ 4.25 ______ 03-25-1876 (0.5" snow incl) __ 4.31" 2d (.06" 03-26) rank 1 for 2d _ 02 ___ 3.85 ______ 03-13-2010 _ _ _ _ (4.10" 13-14 2010 _ 3.85+0.25) rank 2 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ (4.03" 29-30 2010 _ 1.58+2.45) rank 3 for 2d - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (3.68" 12-13 1953 _ 1.07+2.61) rank 4 for 2d - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1.40" additional 03-15-1953, 5.08" 4d new_ 03 _ 3.66 ____ 03-23-2024 _ _ _ _ ranks 5 for 2d _ ranks below add 1 now (no edit) _ 03 ___ 3.44 ______ 03-22-1977 _ _ _ _ no added 2d __ rank 5 for 2d - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (3.37" 18-19 1983 _ 3.10+0.27) rank 6 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ (3.25" 2d 03-21/22-1980 2.21"+1.04" rank 7 for 2d - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (3.23" 10-11 1901 _ 0.29+2.94) rank 8 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ (3.11" 2d 03-01/02-1914 (2.95+0.16) rank 9 for 2d _ 04 ___ 3.10 ______ 03-18-1983 _ _ _ _ (3.37" 2d (0.27" 03-19)) rank 6 for 2d - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (3.07" 6-7 1967 _ 1.20+1.87) rank 10 for 2d _ 05 ___ 2.98 ______ 03-28-2005 _ _ _ _ (3.02" 2d, incl .04" 03-29) rank 11 for 2d _ 06 ___ 2.95 ______ 03-01-1914 (13.5" snow*) -- 3.11" 2d (0.16" 2nd) rank 9 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-27/28-1932 2.93" (0.55+2.38) rank 12 for 2d _ 07 ___ 2.94 ______ 03-11-1901 _ _ _ _ _(3.23" 2d, incl 0.29" 03-10) rank 8 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ (2.80" 24-25 1969 (1.17+1.63) rank 13 for 2d _ 08 ___ 2.63 ______ 03-06-1979 _ _ _ _ (2.77" 2d, incl 0.14" 03-05) rank 14 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-29/30-1951 2.66" (0.53+2.13) rank 15 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-03/04-1906 2.64" (0.39+2.25) rank 16 for 2d _ 09 ___ 2.61 ______ 03-13-1953 ______ (+1.07" 03-12, 3.68" 2d) rank 4 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-28/29-1984 2.60" (0.57+2.03) rank 17 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-01/02-2007 2.55" (0.14+2.41) rank 18 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-03/04-1991 2.54" (2.17+0.37) rank 19 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-13/14-1993 2.52" (2.37+0.15) rank 20 for 2d _ 10 ___ 2.45 ______ 03-30-2010 _ _ _ _ 2d 4.03" 29-30 2010 _ 1.58+2.45 rank 3 for 2d _ 11 ___ 2.41 _______ 03-02-2007 _ _ _ _ 2d 2.55" (incl 0.14" 03-01-2007) rank 18 for 2d _ 12 ___ 2.38 ______ 03-28-1932 _ _ _ _ 2d 2.93" (incl 0.55" 03-27-1932) rank 12 for 2d _ 13 ___ 2.37 ______ 03-13-1993 _10.2" snow _ 2d 2.52" (incl 0.15" 03-14) _0.4" snow 03-14 rank 19 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 2.40" 03-13/14-1984 2.31+0.09) rank 21 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 2.37" 03-29/30-2001 0.21+2.16) rank 22 for 2d _ 14 ___ 2.36 ______ 03-01-1987 _ _ _ _ (added .03" on Feb 28, trace 03-02-1987) rank 23 for 2d^ _ 15 ___ 2.33 ______ 03-12-1962 _ _ _ _ no added 2d __ rank t24 for 2d (ties 03-20/21-1871 0.36+1.97) _ 16 ___ 2.31 ______ 03-13-1984 _ _ _ _ 2d 2.40" (incl 0.09" 03-14) rank 21 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-15/16-2007^ 2.35" (0.32+2.03) rank 26 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-08/09-1998 2.32" (0.50+1.82) rank 27 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-21/22-2001 2.31" (1.03+1.28) rank 28 for 2d _t17 ___ 2.25 ______ 03-25-1872 (Tr snow) _ no added 2d _ rank 29 for 2d _t17 ___ 2.25 ______ 03-03-1906 _ _ _ _ 2.64" 2d (0.39" 2nd) rank 16 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.24" 2d 03-01/02-2018 (0.38+1.86) rank 30 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.23" 2d 03-19/20-1881 (2.19+.04) rank 31 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2d 03-26/27-1909 2.20" (1.42+0.78) rank t32 for 2d _ 19 ___ 2.21 ______ 03-21-1980 _ _ _ _ 3.25" 2d (2.21+1.04" 22nd) rank 7 for 2d _ 20 ___ 2.20 _____ 03-31-1934 (added only .06" April 1st) rank t32 for 2d _ 21 ___ 2.19 ______ 03-19-1881 _ _ _ _ 2.23" 2d (.04" 03-20) rank 31 for 2d _ 22 ___ 2.17 ______ 03-03-1991 _ _ _ _ 2.54" 2d (.37" 03-04-1991) rank 18 for 2d _ 23 ___ 2.16 ______ 03-30-2001 _ _ _ _ 2.37" 2d (.21" 03-29) rank 22 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.16" 2d 03-28/29-2014 (1.81+0.35) rank 34 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.15" 2d 03-27/28-1919 (1.79+0.36, incl 1.4" snow) rank t35 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 2.15" 2d 03-05/06-1920 (1.81+0.34, total 2.7" snow) rank t35 for 2d _ 24 ___ 2.13 ______03-30-1951 _ _ _ _ 2.66" 2d (.53" 03-29) rank 15 for 2d _ 25 ___ 2.12 ______ 03-25-1909 _ _ _ 2.13" 2d (.01" 03-24) rank 37 for 2d _ 26 ___ 2.07 ______ 03-31-1997 (0.25" fell Apr 1, not counted as 2d) rank 38 for 2d _ 27 ___ 2.05 _____ 03-24-1989 _ _ _ _ no added 2d ___ rank 39 for 2d _t28 ___ 2.03 _____ 03-29-1984 (incl 1.8" snow) _ 2.60" 2d (0.57"+2.03") rank 17 for 2d _t28 ___ 2.03 _____ 03-16-2007 (incl 5.5" snow, sleet also) _ 2d 2.35" incl .23" 03-15 rank 26 for 2d - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2.10" 2d 03-11/12-1888 (19.5" snow) rank t40 for 2d - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2.10" 2d 03-06/07-2011 (2.01"+.09") rank t40 for 2d - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2.04" 2d 03-12/13-1944 (0.11"+1.93") rank 42 for 2d - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2.03" 2d 03-12/13-1912 (unk sleet, snow) 1.79"+0.24" rank 43 for 2d - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - (1.81" also 03-15-1912, 4d 3.83") _ 30 ___ 2.02 _____ 03-31-1980 (added only .01" Apr 1st) __ rank 44 for 2d _ 31 ___ 2.01 ______ 03-06-2011 (2d total 2.10" as .09" on 03-07-2011, also 1.98" 03-10/11-2011. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ (2.01" 7-8 1941 (0.23" + 1.78") (18.1" sn) _ rank 45 for 2d) _ 32 ___ 2.00 _____ 03-21-1974 _ _ _ _ no added 2d ___ rank 46 for 2d _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ (2.00" 11-12 1936 (1.51" + 0.49") _ rank 47 for 2d) __________________________________________________ * +1.0" snow for 14.5" total (2nd), very low pressure near 950 So 32 days exceeded or tied 2.00" and 47 events ran up 2.00" over two days (a few did not get any additional rainfall or very little). It's a frequency of about once every five years for daily, once every four years for 2d events. For 32 daily events, and 47 2d events (15 not qualifying for daily 2.0"), 31-year equal periods scored as follows: A 1869-1899 _ 3 (+2) __ 5 B 1900-1930 _ 4 (+4) __8 C 1931-1961 _ 4 (+3) __ 7 D 1962-1992 _12 (+2) _ 14 E 1993-2023 _ 9 (+4) _ 13 F 2024-2054 _ 1 Since about 1977 a general increase in frequency occurs, 1940s and 1950s into 1960s score very low. A list in order of occurrence in groups as counted above: List of 2.0" precip events in order of occurrence (all events listed 2d totals, underlined are 15/47 not including a 2.0" daily value) A 1871_2.33" ... 1872_2.25" ... 1876_4.31" ... 1881_2.23" ...1888_2.10" B 1901_3.23" ... 1906_2.64" ... 1909_2.13" ... 1912_2.03" ... 1913_2.20" ... 1914_3.11" ... 1919_2.15" ... 1920_2.15" C 1932_2.93" ... 1934_ 2.20" ... 1936_2.00" ... 1941_2.01" ... 1944_2.04" ... 1951_2.66" ... 1953_3.37" ... D 1962_2.33" ... 1967_3.07" ... 1969_2.80" ... 1974_2.00" ... 1977_3.44" ... 1979_2.77" ... 1980_3.25", 2.02" ... 1983_3.37", ... 1984_2.40", 2.60" ... 1987_2.36" ... 1989_2.05" ... 1991_2.54" ... E 1993_2.52" ... 1997_2.07" ... 1998_2.32" ... 2001_2.31", 2.37" ... 2005_3.02" ... 2007_2.55", 2.35" ... 2010_4.10", 4.03" ... 2011_2.10" ... 2014_2.31" ... 2018_2.24" (F 2024_3.66") Note 47 events in 42 years as 5 (1980, 1984, 2001, 2007, 2010) recorded two events. now 48 events in 43 years. 155/42 = 3.7 (year return period for events, increasing probability of two in one year) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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