March 2024

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Same old pattern of weakening heading into 8 before reloading again in the warmer phases.

Maybe some snow ? Doubt it though 

New England definitely has a chance

[TWCCraig]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

These clouds suck 

55 and sunny here on the south shore. Clouds built up along the sea breeze boundary to the north, akin to a summer day where the north shore would be getting storms right now

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

55 and sunny here on the south shore. Clouds built up along the sea breeze boundary to the north, akin to a summer day where the north shore would be getting storms right now

Yea it’s awful haha

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Same old pattern of weakening heading into 8 before reloading again in the warmer phases.

We need a change on the Pacific side

[Brian5671]

Cooler here but still nice by March standards 60 degrees and mostly sunny

[Rjay]

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need a change on the Pacific side

No we don't.  At this point we just need more 70s.

[donsutherland1]

On account of the warmest first 15 days of March and the earliest 15-day period with a 50°F (10°C) or above mean temperature on record in New York City, the New York Botanical Garden has exploded into bloom. Some photos:

[donsutherland1]

55 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Last few runs of the models actually corrected colder for later in the week. So even NYC could see another freeze by Thursday. Always a risk when we get these early season blooms. Funny how the models waited until we got closer to the start of astronomical spring to reverse the seasonal forecast bias.

New run

Old run

 

It will be interesting to see how things hold up should the newer guidance verify. I suspect that the Magnolias that aren’t in bloom might not bloom until April if the weather stays cooler. The Camelias could lose their blossoms. Most of the crocuses are already done blooming.

[donsutherland1]

Mild conditions will persist through tomorrow. Afterward, it will turn cooler with highs only in the middle and upper 40s in New York City and near 50° in Philadelphia. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no direct Arctic shots are likely. As a result, the cold will likely not be severe for the season. Moderation will likely occur later during the start of the following weekend with the temperature returning to the lower 50s. The closing days of March could turn warm.

No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 20th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has continued to increase. It is now very likely that New York City will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.4°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.53°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was +11.39 on March 15.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.121 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.7° (5.0° above normal).

 

[rclab]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It will be interesting to see how things hold up should the newer guidance verify. I suspect that the Magnolias that aren’t in bloom might not bloom until April if the weather stays cooler. The Camelias could lose their blossoms. Most of the crocuses are already done blooming.

Good evening Don. Magnificent photos from the Botanical Gardens. Below the first photo is of a Camilla I planted at my parents house over 55 years ago. The second is a bloom from a Camilla I planted in the postage stamp 40 years ago. My sister said the one at my parent’s house opened its first bloom near the end of February. Stay well, as always …

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good evening Don. Magnificent photos from the Botanical Gardens. Below the first photo is of a Camilla I planted at my parents house over 55 years ago. The second is a bloom from a Camilla I planted in the postage stamp 40 years ago. My sister said the one at my parent’s house opened its first bloom near the end of February. Stay well, as always …

 

 

 

Fantastic photos.

[snowman19]

17 hours ago, Rjay said:

No we don't.  At this point we just need more 70s.

We need the PAC to change for what? Lol winter’s done. We’re out of time, the clock ran out, game over. We’re already into meteorological spring, been in solar spring since February, daylight savings time in effect and astronomical spring starts Tuesday

[the_other_guy]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We need the PAC to change for what? Lol winter’s done. We’re out of time, the clock ran out, game over. We’re already into meteorological spring, been in solar spring since February, daylight savings time in effect and astronomical spring starts Tuesday

New York City second week of March.

 

Beyond that it’s spring snow when you’re lucky. wet slop

 

Until then you can have a wintery feel

 

this year we didn’t even have a winter feel side for a week or two in the middle of February and January.

 

I don’t know what these people are talking about winter in March. Ridiculous.

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We need the PAC to change for what? Lol winter’s done. We’re out of time, the clock ran out, game over. We’re already into meteorological spring, been in solar spring since February, daylight savings time in effect and astronomical spring starts Tuesday

I'm talking about for snowy winters. Keep up or don't post.

[Brian5671]

42 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

New York City second week of March.

 

Beyond that it’s spring snow when you’re lucky. wet slop

 

Until then you can have a wintery feel

 

this year we didn’t even have a winter feel side for a week or two in the middle of February and January.

 

I don’t know what these people are talking about winter in March. Ridiculous.

It has felt more like April or even May the last 2.5 weeks

[donsutherland1]

Week ahead numbers:

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We need the PAC to change for what? Lol winter’s done. We’re out of time, the clock ran out, game over. We’re already into meteorological spring, been in solar spring since February, daylight savings time in effect and astronomical spring starts Tuesday

So we got solar spring, met spring and real spring?  

[SACRUS]

 

Low of 48 now to 56.  Partly to mostly sunny and upper 50s /low 60s and the warmest for the next 7 - 9 days.  Colder 3/19 - 3/25. Moderating coincide with wetter period.  

 

 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

Low of 48 now to 56.  Partly to mostly sunny and upper 50s /low 60s and the warmest for the next 7 - 9 days.  Colder 3/19 - 3/25. Moderating coincide with wetter period.  

 

 

That’s yesterdays sat

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 78 (1990)
NYC: 75 (1945)
LGA: 74 (1945)


Lows:

EWR: 16 (1981)
NYC: 9 (1916)
LGA:  15 (1967)

 

Historical:

 

1892 - A winter storm in southwestern and central Tennessee produced 26 inches of snow at Riddleton, and 18.5 inches at Memphis. It was the deepest snow of record for those areas. (David Ludlum)

1906 - The temperature at Snake River, WY, dipped to 50 degrees below zero, a record for the U.S. for the month of March. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1952: The ban on using the word "tornado" issued in 1886 ended on this date. In the 1880s, John P. Finley of the U.S. Army Signal Corps, then handling weather forecasting for the U.S., developed generalized forecasts on days tornadoes were most likely. But in 1886, the Army ended Finley's program and banned the word "tornado" from forecasts because the harm done by a tornado prediction would eventually be greater than that which results from the tornado itself. The thinking was that people would be trampled in the panic if they heard a tornado was possible. The ban stayed in place after the Weather Bureau; now, the National Weather Service took over forecasting from the Army. A tornado that wrecked 52 large aircraft at Tinker Air Force Base, OK, on 3/20/1948, spurred Air Force meteorologists to begin working on ways to forecast tornadoes. The Weather Bureau also began looking for ways to improve tornado forecasting and established the Severe Local Storm Warning Center, which is now the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK. The ban on the word "tornado" fell on this date when the new center issued its first Tornado Watch.

1987 - A powerful spring storm produced severe thunderstorms over the Central Gulf Coast States, and heavy snow in the High Plains Region. A tornado caused three million dollars damage at Natchez MS, and six inches of rain in five hours caused five million dollars damage at Vicksburg MS. Cactus TX received 10 inches of snow. Western Kansas reported blizzard conditions. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A winter storm produced heavy snow from the northeast Texas panhandle to the Ozark area of Missouri and Arkansas. Up to fifteen inches of snow was reported in Oklahoma and Texas. Snowfall totals in the Ozark area ranged up to 14 inches, with unofficial reports as high as 22 inches around Harrison AR. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong northerly winds ushered snow and arctic cold into the north central U.S. Winds gusted to 58 mph at Sydney NE and Scottsbluff NE, Cadillac MI received 12 inches of snow, and International Falls MN reported a record low of 22 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Showers and thunderstorms associated with a slow moving cold front produced torrential rains across parts of the southeastern U.S. over a two day period. Flooding claimed the lives of at least 22 persons, including thirteen in Alabama. Up to 16 inches of rain deluged southern Alabama, with 10.63 inches reported at Mobile AL in 24 hours. The town of Elba AL was flooded with 6 to 12 feet of water causing more than 25 million dollars damage, and total flood damage across Alabama exceeded 100 million dollars. Twenty-six counties in the state were declared disaster areas. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1990: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a slow-moving cold front produced torrential rains across parts of the southeastern U.S. over two days. Flooding claimed the lives of at least 22 persons, including thirteen in Alabama. Up to 16 inches of rain deluged southern Alabama with 10.63 inches reported at Mobile AL in 24 hours. The town of Elba, AL, was flooded with 6 to 12 feet of water causing more than 25 million dollars damage, and total flood damage across Alabama exceeded 100 million dollars. Twenty-six counties in the state were declared disaster areas.

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

That’s yesterdays sat

 

 

tnks

 

[SACRUS]

 

Daylight (>12 hours)

12H:02M

 

Roughly equivalent to Sep 25th

[SACRUS]

 

10 years ago snow stayed just south of the metro areas.

 

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

10 years ago snow stayed just south of the metro areas.

 

2005 had some accumulation right?

[bluewave]

The Seattle forecast zones actually got to 80° before our area this March. 
 

 

[WX-PA]

49 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

10 years ago snow stayed just south of the metro areas.

 

Feb, March 1967 a very snowy time in the NYC metro. When I really started getting into weather and snow.

[SACRUS]

49 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

2005 had some accumulation right?

 

That was later in the month 3\23

[SnoSki14]

Looks like multiple freezes and even hard freezes likely just outside the city and immediate coast coming week.

Should put a damper on any early blooms and leafouts. 

[jm1220]

42 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks like multiple freezes and even hard freezes likely just outside the city and immediate coast coming week.

Should put a damper on any early blooms and leafouts. 

Yep, even in this climate we’re almost guaranteed another couple of freezes outside the city.