March 2024

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, nycwinter said:

since we have had a very warm march i am expecting a chillier april that how it usually works..

It depends, it might be chilly for the first week of April, but don't expect it for the rest of the month.

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Spring is mostly nicer SW of Philly where back door fronts are rare. Here and NE of us it’s often miserable because of them. Always dreadful to see the closed upper low develop east/NE of us and you know it’s drizzly stratus and 40s for days. 

hopefully that will stay in new england as it often does

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, ag3 said:

Another 70 degree day here.

When we are in a torch regime, always add 3-5 degrees to the modeled consensus high temp.

 

 

Yes, when the forecast from days out was for a high of 96 in the summer, I knew it was going to hit 100

 

72 at JFK!

[LibertyBell]

On 3/13/2024 at 7:54 AM, bluewave said:

UHI isn’t a factor for record cold like that since NYC has needed strong CAA back to around 1900 when UHI became established. It’s that the air masses aren’t as cold anymore as they were as recently as the late 70s to early 90s. Newark had one of their coldest readings of all time as recently as the 1980s while UHI was well established. NYC has always needed northerly flow for the few times it got below -10°. UHI mostly means that on nights with calm winds and clear skies the surrounding areas will radiate much better. But the best Arctic outbreaks in NYC always need strong winds to transport the Arctic air from the north and west. That’s why there isn’t that much difference between NYC and nearby less urban stations when the winds stay strong. It’s on the nights when the winds are calm that we see the big disparity. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1934	-14	0
2	1985	-8	0
-	1933	-8	0
3	1982	-7	0
-	1943	-7	0
4	1936	-4	0
-	1935	-4	0
5	1994	-2	0
-	1977	-2	0
-	1963	-2	0
-	1961	-2	0
6	1984	-1	0
-	1981	-1	0
-	1980	-1	0
-	1979	-1	0
-	1976	-1	0
-	1942	-1	0
7	2016	0	0
-	2004	0	0
-	1957	0	0
-	1945	0	0

It's so interesting that Newark's 2nd and 4th lowest temperatures on record are from the 80s-- and it's so close to Manhattan so why was there such a big disparity from Central Park on those nights?

Can you pull up Philly too-- didn't they hit -10 during the 80s, Chris?

Too bad we don't have Newark data from the 1917-18 winter, it would be interesting to find out what they bottomed out at in that historically cold winter.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's so interesting that Newark's 2nd and 4th lowest temperatures on record are from the 80s-- and it's so close to Manhattan so why was there such a big disparity from Central Park on those nights?

Can you pull up Philly too-- didn't they hit -10 during the 80s, Chris?

Too bad we don't have Newark data from the 1917-18 winter, it would be interesting to find out what they bottomed out at in that historically cold winter.

 

 

Newark had a temperature of -13 on December 30, 1917.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Newark had a temperature of -13 on December 30, 1917.

Thanks Don, looks like their records go back almost as far back as NYC's do!

[LibertyBell]

On 3/13/2024 at 11:01 AM, MJO812 said:

I think there is one more shot of snow. All the tellies look good right now. The lag should bring us to next week. 

 

Of course interior areas  will be more favored than mine but we should see colder conditions. 

the tellies look good for flurries in the Catskills lol

[LibertyBell]

On 3/13/2024 at 9:37 AM, Volcanic Winter said:

I have allergic rhinitis and it’s one of the most unpleasant things I’ve ever experienced. Nasal passages swollen shut, feels like I’m breathing through cocktail straws. Thankfully Nasacort works very well for this. I actually have it all year round but of course it’s always worse in the spring. 

Thanks!  Was yours worse early in the morning too? My pollen allergies go away after 11 am for some reason.

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, looks like their records go back almost as far back as NYC's do!

Newark's records go back to January 1893.

[donsutherland1]

Under variably cloudy skies and the lack of an onshore breeze, coastal sections saw the mercury rise to daily records. Daily record highs included:

Bridgeport: 72° (old record: 65°, 1990)
Islip: 73° (old record: 67°, 1990)
New Haven: 65° (old record: 61°, 2022)
New York City-JFK Airport: 72° (old record: 65°, 1986)
Westhampton: 69° (old record: 62°, 2014)

The generally mild conditions will persist through the coming weekend. However, temperatures will be somewhat cooler than on Thursday or today.

Afterward, it will turn cooler with highs only in the middle and upper 40s in New York City and near 50° in Philadelphia. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no direct Arctic shots are likely. As a result, the cold will likely not be severe for the season. Moderation will occur later in the week with the temperature returning to the lower 50s. The closing days of March could turn warm.

No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 20th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has continued to increase. It is now very likely that New York City will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.4°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.53°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was not available today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.121 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (4.7° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

Highs for today

NYC 73

JFK 72

ISP 73

I dont have LGA and EWR numbers.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

Under variably cloudy skies and the lack of an onshore breeze, coastal sections saw the mercury rise to daily records. Daily record highs included:

Bridgeport: 72° (old record: 65°, 1990)
Islip: 73° (old record: 67°, 1990)
New Haven: 65° (old record: 61°, 2022)
New York City-JFK Airport: 72° (old record: 65°, 1986)
Westhampton: 69° (old record: 62°, 2014)

The generally mild conditions will persist through the coming weekend. However, temperatures will be somewhat cooler than on Thursday or today.

Afterward, it will turn cooler with highs only in the middle and upper 40s in New York City and near 50° in Philadelphia. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no direct Arctic shots are likely. As a result, the cold will likely not be severe for the season. Moderation will occur later in the week with the temperature returning to the lower 50s. The closing days of March could turn warm.

No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 20th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has continued to increase. It is now very likely that New York City will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.4°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.53°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was +18.43 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.121 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (4.7° above normal).

 

Thanks Don, how come New Haven was so much cooler than Bridgeport (and even cooler than Westhampton?)

Also, I have the high for NYC at 73, what was the high at EWR and LGA?

Thanks!

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Highs for today

NYC 73

JFK 72

ISP 72

I dont have LGA and EWR numbers.

ISP hit 73. EWR was 75 and LGA was 72.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Don, how come New Haven was so much cooler than Bridgeport (and even cooler than Westhampton?)

Also, I have the high for NYC at 73, what was the high at EWR and LGA?

Thanks!

There was more of an easterly component to the breeze at New Haven.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

ISP hit 73. EWR was 75 and LGA was 72.

Thanks, Don, the strong westerly wind did it for us plus more sunshine than expected.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

no, winter is actually now two months long-- January and February.

 

Yeah, March was more like a winter month during the 2010s and now it’s a spring month in the 2020s. So it’s a challenge reaching normal seasonal snowfall when we don’t get much snow these days in December and March since they have become so warm. Very hard to get to normal when you are just relying on January and February. Plus the warmth has been encroaching on those months also reducing snowfall potential. So a continuation of our climate becoming more like what areas to our south in the Mid-Atlantic used to be like in the old days. 

[Cfa]

75 again today, I didn’t expect that.

[donsutherland1]

New York City saw the temperature average above 50F (10C) during March 1-15. The previous earliest 50F (10C) or above 15-day mean temperature occurred during March 3-17, 1977. 

[SACRUS]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City saw the temperature average above 50F (10C) during March 1-15. The previous earliest 50F (10C) or above 15-day mean temperature occurred during March 3-17, 1977. 

1990 must have been close

[donsutherland1]

38 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

1990 must have been close

The 15-day average reached 50 during March 7-21, 1990. March 1990 saw an early shot of very cold air with the low temperature reaching 13 on March 7th. Six of the first eight days had lows of 25 or below with three days having highs in the 30s, including 33 on March 6th.

[SnoSki14]

Very active and much colder 2nd half of March likely. MJO swinging to colder phases. 

[the_other_guy]

7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very active and much colder 2nd half of March likely. MJO swinging to colder phases. 

Isnt that wonderful…This fucking winter

[Brian5671]

7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very active and much colder 2nd half of March likely. MJO swinging to colder phases. 

Not really that cold- -5 in late March is 45-50.   It will feel like an ice age after the last few weeks though!

[uofmiami]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Not really that cold- -5 in late March is 45-50.   It will feel like an ice age after the last few weeks though!

Mid 50s overall. Onshore flow and gloom won’t make it better, that’s for sure. Especially compared to the recent weather we’ve had. 

[SACRUS]

 

Down to 40 from a high of 73 Friday 46 now.  Cooler than the last 3 days but still a warm low 60s today and Sunday.  Cooler 3/19 - 3/23.  Moderating but perhaps wetter beyond there.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR:  82 (1990)
NYC:  82 (1990)
LGA: 77 (1990)


Lows:

EWR: 17 (1992)
NYC: 13 (1911)
LGA:  19 (1992)


Historical:

 

1942 - Two tornadoes, 24 minutes apart, struck Baldwin, MS, resulting in 65 deaths. (David Ludlum)

1975 - A single storm brought 119 inches of snow to Crater Lake, O,R establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1986 - A small but rare tornado touched down perilously close to Disneyland in Anaheim CA. (Storm Data)

1987 - Softball size hail caused millions of dollars damage to automobiles at Del Rio TX. Three persons were injured when hailstones crashed through a shopping mall skylight. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

1988 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in the Central Rockies. Winds gusted to 80 mph at Centerville UT. Eighteen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date, including Tallahassee FL with a reading of 24 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A winter storm brought heavy snow and high winds to the southwestern U.S. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Lovelock NV, Salt Lake City UT, and Fort Carson CO. Snow fell at a rate of three inches per hour in the Lake Tahoe area of Nevada. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced large hail and damaging winds from northwest Florida to western South Carolina. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 75 mph at Floridatown FL. Sixteen cities across the northeastern quarter of the nation reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 78 degrees at Burlington VT smashed their previous record for the date by 23 degrees. New York City reported a record high of 82 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[MJO812]

8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very active and much colder 2nd half of March likely. MJO swinging to colder phases. 

Lovely

40s and 50s will feel great

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Not really that cold- -5 in late March is 45-50.   It will feel like an ice age after the last few weeks though!

Exactly. 40s and 50s are much colder than 70s

And I think the wetter scenarios win out. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Hopefully the Euro is correct and the recent drier pattern continues into next weekend. But the models have been all over the place with storm tracks. NYC only needs another 2.00” to make it a top 10 wettest March.

 

Persistence points to wet weather 

[psv88]

These clouds suck 

[MJO812]

More rain