March 2024

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Was sooo close.   If the surface low track was about 75 miles more to the east it would have had crippling effects across the NYC metro area.  It was bad as it was but could have been much worse with much more snow and drifting if track was displaced a bit to the east.

 

The 60 hour 4 panel DIFAX prog is framed and hanging on my wall to this day.

I would still rate it a beast where I was living at the time. In Long Beach there was maybe 8” of snow that became icebergs when the water surged in all throughout town. Plus 60+ mph wind. 24” would’ve been much better but still a major impact. It’s the kind of storm you see once in a lifetime. I think in WV every 24 hour snow record was broken. 

[psv88]

60 today. Southerly winds keeping LI cooler 

[dmillz25]

62 here 

[winterwx21]

73 degrees here! Spectacular weather! Might be even a couple degrees warmer tomorrow. I'd love to have weather like this in late march when it's time to start the garden with cold tolerant vegetables, but it rarely works out that way. 

Still looks like a decent cold shot for the official start of spring. High temps probably mid-upper 40s next Tuesday-Wednesday, but it will be only a brief cold shot. 

[IrishRob17]

After a low of 32, made it to 73 for the high, 71 currently.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Absolutely crazy storm. The entirety of the comma extending down past the Yucatán is just awe inspiring. Absolute beast. 

I mean just look at it:

Cuba had a rare cold front passage lol

[ag3]

Another glorious day. High temp of 64.6 degrees.

[donsutherland1]

What a difference three days makes.

ECMWF Weekly Forecasts from March 10th:

3/18-25:

3/25-4/1:

From March 13th:

3/18-25:

3/25-4/1:

Scale:

[bluewave]

3 of the top 5 warmest first 2 weeks of March have occurred since the 15-16 super El Niño. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 14	Missing Count
1	2020-03-14	49.0	0
2	1977-03-14	48.5	0
3	2024-03-14	48.2	2
4	2016-03-14	47.9	0
5	2012-03-14	47.6	0

[donsutherland1]

A light sea breeze held readings in the lower 60s in New York City and 50s across parts of Long Island. Meanwhile the mercury rose into the 70s in Philadelphia to Washington, DC.

The warmth will peak tomorrow through Friday with the temperature rising into the middle and upper 60s in the New York City area and middle and perhaps upper 70s from Philadelphia and southward. The generally mild conditions will persist through mid-month.

There is good consensus on the guidance that a deep trough will likely develop just after mid-month. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no direct Arctic shots are likely. As a result, any cold will likely not be severe for the season and the potential exists for the cooler period to last one to perhaps two weeks, much as occurred in February. Any sharper cold shots will likely have a short duration. The closing days of the month could turn warmer.

No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 20th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has continued to increase. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.4°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.53°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was +4.26 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.048 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.8° (4.0° above normal).

 

[Roger Smith]

Those 1990 record highs on today's date are a real singularity, just at NYC the following changes occurred ...

before 03-13-1990 ... daily record 70F 1929

after 03-13-1990 .... daily record 85 F

 

before 03-13-1990 ... first 80F to 83F was 83F 03-20-1945 and first 84F was 03-21-1921

after 03-13-1990 .... daily record 85 F and also 82F 03-16-1990, both earlier than 1945 benchmark.

 

before 03-13-1990 ... 76F on 03-08-1987 was warmest temperature to 03-13 

after 03-13-1990 ... 78F 02-21-2017 and 77,79F 03-09/10-2016 also warmer than 1987 previous record to date.

before 03-08-1987 ... 75F 02-25-1930 and also 75F 02-24-1985 were warmest readings up to 03-13. 

 

before 03-13-1990 ... 86F 03-29-1945 was earliest 85+ reading

after 03-13-1990 ... 85F 03-13-1990 is so far only 85+ before 03-29 but 1998 also 86F on 03-31-1998.

--------

The 1990 warm spell extended into upstate NY and s ON, I recall an almost instant disappearance of a fairly significant snow pack at my location n.e. of Toronto, and TV weather from ROC giving details on new records in low 80s there also. 

This warm spell prompted a lot of discussion of the emerging theory of global warming. It's worth noting that it occurred only three months after a notably cold December (1989).  

 

 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

What a difference three days makes.

ECMWF Weekly Forecasts from March 10th:

3/18-25:

3/25-4/1:

From March 13th:

3/18-25:

3/25-4/1:

Scale:

Weeklies are so bad with the phantom cold in the East @brooklynwx99

[SnoSki14]

March will finish+4 on top of the highest normals. 

If March ever goes even -1 people will think the ice age has arrived 

[Roger Smith]

One of the oddest climate stats is that the first week of June, 1945 was colder than the last week of March 1945. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Too bad the phase wasn’t a little further southeast allowing a benchmark track instead.

 

 

"And coming up next, the forecast where we put the maps in motion.."  This brings me right back.  The 90's maps were a slightly polished upgrade over the maps of the 80s.

[donsutherland1]

With the continuing warmth, more and more blossoms are overspreading the New York Botanical Garden.

 

[donsutherland1]

New York City's worst snow seasons (warmth and lack of snowfall) through March 13th:

[Picard]

This is the earliest in my recent memory for things to start blooming
Our crocus has been in full bloom since the weekend, and the neighbors daffodils are all open.  There were already a couple of bees pollinating the flowers too.

[bluewave]

Looks like only scattered showers with the frontal passages over the next week or so. This will translate into below average rainfall with no very heavy rainfalls of several inches  expected. Then we shift back to a wetter pattern later in the month as it’s been tough to sustain any drier intervals since last summer.

 

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, Picard said:

This is the earliest in my recent memory for things to start blooming
Our crocus has been in full bloom since the weekend, and the neighbors daffodils are all open.  There were already a couple of bees pollinating the flowers too.

Pretty much the same here.  Daffodils are 95% in bloom, at least on the south side of the house.  Shady locations are lagging behind but still ahead of schedule.  Never have seen so much bird activity so early, that started almost 2 weeks ago.

[TJW014]

Starting off at 37 this morning. Forecast here is 72. 2 miles to my east, 52. Sea breeze doing sea breeze things.

[Dark Star]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like only scattered showers with the frontal passages over the next week or so. This will translate into below average rainfall with no very heavy rainfalls of several inches  expected. Then we shift back to a wetter pattern later in the month as it’s been tough to sustain any drier intervals since last summer.

 

I suppose wetter than normal is better than drier than normal, as longer as there is no excessive flooding?

[Dark Star]

35 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Pretty much the same here.  Daffodils are 95% in bloom, at least on the south side of the house.  Shady locations are lagging behind but still ahead of schedule.  Never have seen so much bird activity so early, that started almost 2 weeks ago.

Saw a flock of robins last month...

[Brian5671]

37 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Pretty much the same here.  Daffodils are 95% in bloom, at least on the south side of the house.  Shady locations are lagging behind but still ahead of schedule.  Never have seen so much bird activity so early, that started almost 2 weeks ago.

It feels like full on spring here this week...

[MANDA]

1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

Saw a flock of robins last month...

Same here about two weeks ago.  More than I have seen at any time of the year.  Lots of bird activity.

[JerseyWx]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It feels like full on spring here this week...

And yet next week my forecast highs are in the 40's with lows in the 20's.  I see all these t-shirt people and wonder if they think it's summer from here on out.

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I suppose wetter than normal is better than drier than normal, as longer as there is no excessive flooding?

NYC only needs another 2.00” of rain for a top 10 wettest March. So a rainy period later in the month can push NYC into the top 10. 

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

And yet next week my forecast highs are in the 40's with lows in the 20's.  I see all these t-shirt people and wonder if they think it's summer from here on out.

Looks like we get an EPO dip next week but then right back to the torch after that...

[donsutherland1]

On seasonal forecasts:

A shrinking cold pool renders old analogs from a colder climate increasingly less relevant. The shrinking pool of cold air has been documented in the literature.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/28/9/jcli-d-14-00496.1.xml

Climate change needs to be considered in seasonal forecasting. Otherwise, one will wind up with a cold bias in an increasingly warm world.

https://x.com/ZLabe/status/1768240905331372274?s=20

[gravitylover]

26 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I suppose wetter than normal is better than drier than normal, as longer as there is no excessive flooding?

Not at this point it isn't. All it takes is a couple of tenths for my basement walls to start seeping again. When it rains an inch or more I suck 100s of gallons out with a shop vac over the next couple of days. We usually put a car in front of the house to make it easier to deal with the driveway but I can't because the mud is tenacious and I've been stuck several times now. The backyard is spongy and the garden is too wet to plant anything. #bringbackthedrought for a month or two