Allsnow Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Beautiful afternoon and evening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 It’s easy to beat guidance on days like these when we get clear skies and downslope flow with dewpoints in the 20s. Central Park SUNNY 66 25 21 W13G23 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 White forsythia are now coming into bloom at the New York Botanical Garden. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 1 hour ago, MANDA said: 3.7 above....do I hear 4.0.... Has been rising as the month progresses as have most of the previous months. Where March finishes will depend on how "chilly" and for how long it lasts next week. I think a 4.0 or a little higher finish is quite possible. Beautiful day today....If not going to snow I'll take this over cool, damp and rainy anytime. A +4.0 or above anomaly is certainly plausible, especially if the long-range guidance continues to prove colder than what actually occurs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Noticed that this year-everything's going to be a couple weeks ahead of schedule this year With the recent “winters” we’ve had maybe we need a new schedule. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 12 hours ago, LibertyBell said: wow that sounds like some amazing memories. 1944 and 1948 were extremely hot at JFK and so was 1953 and 1954 and 1955 from what I've read and of course 1966. And they got to experience some amazing TCs too like the 1944 hurricane, Carol in 1954 and Donna in 1960! And in 1947 they got the HECS of record for that period, the day after Christmas! The original Boxing Day Blizzard! Heh, dad used to talk about 5 year old him stepping off the top step of the porch and sinking right up to his eyes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 7 hours ago, bluewave said: It’s easy to beat guidance on days like these when we get clear skies and downslope flow with dewpoints in the 20s. Central Park SUNNY 66 25 21 W13G23 JFK was warmer than LGA too wasn't it? The high at JFK was 66 while LGA only hit 63? In the summer, JFK could easily hit 100 in these conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 7 hours ago, bluewave said: It’s easy to beat guidance on days like these when we get clear skies and downslope flow with dewpoints in the 20s. Central Park SUNNY 66 25 21 W13G23 My favorite kind of wind and day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 8 hours ago, MANDA said: 3.7 above....do I hear 4.0.... Has been rising as the month progresses as have most of the previous months. Where March finishes will depend on how "chilly" and for how long it lasts next week. I think a 4.0 or a little higher finish is quite possible. Beautiful day today....If not going to snow I'll take this over cool, damp and rainy anytime. Yes and the allergies aren't bad yet either! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 9 hours ago, SACRUS said: 67 here , breezy but very nice out. 4PM: EWR: 68 JFK: 66 NYC: 66 LGA: 63 are these the highs for all these locations, Tony? I love the downsloping winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 10 hours ago, bluewave said: The core of the historic cold from the fall into the winter 76-77 was situated to our west around Ohio. That was their coldest fall combined with winter period. Also 3 of their top 5 of their coldest winters since the late 1800s occurred in the late 1970s. Most of the Arctic fronts around NYC during those winters were followed by W to NW flow. It’s probably why NYC didn’t get below -10 like they did in 1917-1918 which places in Ohio were able to surpass. The only times that NYC got below -10 were with NW to N flow down the Hudson Valley and an Arctic high over the Great Lakes. These late 70s into 94 Arctic outbreaks were accompanied by highs dropping further SW. The 1917-1918 and Feb 34 Arctic outbreaks had more NW to N flow down the Hudson Valley. Newark and Philly almost got down to -10 in the 1980s when they had more favorable flow that kept the best cold west of the Hudson. Time Series Summary for Cincinnati Area, OH (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Feb 28 Missing Count 1 1977-02-28 36.1 0 2 1918-02-28 37.8 0 3 1978-02-28 38.9 0 4 1963-02-28 39.7 0 5 1982-02-28 41.1 0 6 1936-02-29 41.2 0 7 1996-02-29 41.3 0 - 1970-02-28 41.3 0 8 1979-02-28 41.5 0 9 1994-02-28 41.6 0 10 1904-02-29 41.7 0 - 1893-02-28 41.7 0 Time Series Summary for Cincinnati Area, OH (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1977-1978 21.7 0 2 1976-1977 23.1 0 3 1917-1918 24.4 0 4 1962-1963 25.0 0 5 1978-1979 26.2 0 6 1935-1936 26.3 0 7 1904-1905 27.7 0 8 1981-1982 27.8 0 - 1903-1904 27.8 0 9 1919-1920 28.0 1 10 1969-1970 28.4 0 - 1963-1964 28.4 0 it could also be that UHI around NYC has become too extreme to allow for -10 temps anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 8 hours ago, nycwinter said: looking forward to next week normal mid march chilly weather.. at least it will be sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 4 hours ago, gravitylover said: Heh, dad used to talk about 5 year old him stepping off the top step of the porch and sinking right up to his eyes. too bad it didn't occur a day earlier, then it would have been the greatest Christmas ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: are these the highs for all these locations, Tony? I love the downsloping winds! highs 3/12 EWR: 68 JFK: 67 NYC: 66 LGA 65 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Down to 35 now to 38 and likely on the way to upper 60s todaymore clouds than yesterday. 70s tomorrow then clouds/showers could keep Fri below forecast. This weekend a split dry Sat / wet Sunday. 3/19 3/23 colder than normal before moderating back to normal/above also could turn wetter to close the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Records: Highs: EWR: 86 (1990) NYC: 85 (1990) LGA: 83 (1990) Lows: EWR: 18 (1948) NyC: 6 (1888) LGA: 19 (2014) Historical: 1907 - A storm produced a record 5.22 inches of rain in 24 hours at Cincinnati, OH. (12th-13th) (The Weather Channel) 1951 - The state of Iowa experienced a record snowstorm. The storm buried Iowa City under 27 inches of snow. (David Ludlum) 1953: An F4 tornado cut an 18-mile path through Haskell and Knox counties in Texas. 17 people were killed, and an eight-block area of Knox City was leveled. 1977 - Baltimore, MD, received an inch of rain in eight minutes. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1987 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada Range of California, and the Lake Tahoe area of Nevada. Mount Rose NV received 18 inches of new snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed from the Plateau Region to the Appalachians. Chadron NE, recently buried 33 inches of snow, was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 19 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Residents of the southern U.S. viewed a once in a life-time display of the Northern Lights. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the southwestern U.S. The record high of 88 degrees at Tucson AZ was their seventh in a row. In southwest Texas, the temperature at Sanderson soared from 46 degrees at 8 AM to 90 degrees at 11 AM. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from northwest Texas to Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska during the day, and into the night. Severe thunderstorms spawned 59 tornadoes, including twenty-six strong or violent tornadoes, and there were about two hundred reports of large hail or damaging winds. There were forty-eight tornadoes in Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa, and some of the tornadoes in those three states were the strongest of record for so early in the season, and for so far northwest in the United States. The most powerful tornado of the day was one which tore through the central Kansas community of Hesston. The tornado killed two persons, injured sixty others, and caused 22 million dollars along its 67-mile path. The tornado had a life span of two hours. Another tornado tracked 124 miles across southeastern Nebraska injuring eight persons and causing more than five million dollars damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 superstorm '1993 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: White forsythia are now coming into bloom at the New York Botanical Garden. Thanks for sharing, Don. I assume the blooms you have been photographing are ahead of schedule. Any idea by about how far ahead? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 10 minutes ago, SACRUS said: superstorm '1993 Long islanders, when I see this map all I can think is that Nassau/ Suffolk are overdone. I know that by me we were over to rain by at most 6”. I wouldn’t have thought that east of me would’ve been any better, but I maybe I’m misremembering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: it could also be that UHI around NYC has become too extreme to allow for -10 temps anymore. UHI isn’t a factor for record cold like that since NYC has needed strong CAA back to around 1900 when UHI became established. It’s that the air masses aren’t as cold anymore as they were as recently as the late 70s to early 90s. Newark had one of their coldest readings of all time as recently as the 1980s while UHI was well established. NYC has always needed northerly flow for the few times it got below -10°. UHI mostly means that on nights with calm winds and clear skies the surrounding areas will radiate much better. But the best Arctic outbreaks in NYC always need strong winds to transport the Arctic air from the north and west. That’s why there isn’t that much difference between NYC and nearby less urban stations when the winds stay strong. It’s on the nights when the winds are calm that we see the big disparity. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1934 -14 0 2 1985 -8 0 - 1933 -8 0 3 1982 -7 0 - 1943 -7 0 4 1936 -4 0 - 1935 -4 0 5 1994 -2 0 - 1977 -2 0 - 1963 -2 0 - 1961 -2 0 6 1984 -1 0 - 1981 -1 0 - 1980 -1 0 - 1979 -1 0 - 1976 -1 0 - 1942 -1 0 7 2016 0 0 - 2004 0 0 - 1957 0 0 - 1945 0 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Thanks for sharing, Don. I assume the blooms you have been photographing are ahead of schedule. Any idea by about how far ahead? Thanks. Some of the blooms are about two weeks ahead of schedule. Early blooms are fast becoming the norm: https://wapo.st/3Tnni3M 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 “New York City is 10 days early compared to a long-term average of 1991-2020.” https://www.usanpn.org/data/maps/spring 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 8 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Yes and the allergies aren't bad yet either! I have allergic rhinitis and it’s one of the most unpleasant things I’ve ever experienced. Nasal passages swollen shut, feels like I’m breathing through cocktail straws. Thankfully Nasacort works very well for this. I actually have it all year round but of course it’s always worse in the spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 8 hours ago, LibertyBell said: at least it will be sunny i do not like sunshine neither... 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Nice read on February 2024 and Winter 23-24 for NJ. That freakish snow event on 2/16 - 2/17 saved the winter for locations in the CNJ area. Take that event out and it would have been a true ratter. https://www.njweather.org/content/lost-winter-february-2024-winter-20232024-recaps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 I think there is one more shot of snow. All the tellies look good right now. The lag should bring us to next week. Of course interior areas will be more favored than mine but we should see colder conditions. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 47 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I think there is one more shot of snow. All the tellies look good right now. The lag should bring us to next week. Of course interior areas will be more favored than mine but we should see colder conditions. If you’re talking about interior areas of Northern New England then I agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Too bad the phase wasn’t a little further southeast allowing a benchmark track instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: Too bad the phase wasn’t a little further southeast allowing a benchmark track instead. Was sooo close. If the surface low track was about 75 miles more to the east it would have had crippling effects across the NYC metro area. It was bad as it was but could have been much worse with much more snow and drifting if track was displaced a bit to the east. The 60 hour 4 panel DIFAX prog is framed and hanging on my wall to this day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 Absolutely crazy storm. The entirety of the comma extending down past the Yucatán is just awe inspiring. Absolute beast. I mean just look at it: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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