March 2024

[MJO812]

I do like the NAO and AO going negative  .

 

The problem is that there is no cold air in Canada.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, HailMan06 said:

Yeah it’s going to be another bad Canadian wildfire season.

why werent there these wildfires back when we were much drier?

2002 was extremely dry-- much more than we are now and yet there were no wildfires?

The grass was parched yellow all summer....

[LibertyBell]

34 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Beautiful morning. 53 and sunny 

song birds chirping all morning

[LibertyBell]

22 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Crazy temp gradient along the coast.  40 at Sagamore Yacht Club and it's 52/53 at my stations, 4-5 miles inland from Yacht Club.

I wonder what the low was at KFOK

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I do like the NAO and AO going negative  .

 

The problem is that there is no cold air in Canada.

then you shouldnt like it, it just means dreary soggy weather.

the best weather is now!

[vegan_edible]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I can’t wait for the next can kick….late March and early April for the “cold” and snow. I have no doubt that one is coming…..

my bro we're gonna have the superstorm 1993 redux in june like have you seen the polar jet?

[cleetussnow]

36 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I do like the NAO and AO going negative  .

 

The problem is that there is no cold air in Canada.

Bro I am so done with this winter.  Tell you what - if there is a big LE event in Buffalo or the Tug next November or December, I'm going.  fugit.  

[snowman19]

52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I do like the NAO and AO going negative  .

 

The problem is that there is no cold air in Canada.

Yea because it’s flooded with PAC air and all the arctic is over in Eurasia. The blocks are just going to trap that air because the PAC stays in a garbage pattern. BIG problem. Marginal cold doesn’t cut it come mid-late March anymore. It’s time to declare this one dead. Let it go

[bluewave]

Guidance is confirming that the warmer and less snowy March pattern which began in 2020 will continue. March used to be a colder and snowier more winter-like month from 2013 to 2019. So March is much more like a an early spring month during the 2020s.

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mar	Season
Mean	42.8	42.8
2023	41.8	41.8
2022	42.4	42.4
2021	42.4	42.4
2020	44.8	44.8

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mar	Season
Mean	0.8	0.8
2023	1.6	1.6
2022	1.6	1.6
2021	T	T
2020	T	T

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mar	Season
Mean	11.3	11.3
2019	4.1	4.1
2018	31.9	31.9
2017	7.4	7.4
2016	3.2	3.2
2015	19.7	19.7
2014	5.4	5.4
2013	7.4	7.4

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mar	Season
Mean	38.4	38.4
2019	38.7	38.7
2018	38.0	38.0
2017	37.1	37.1
2016	45.5	45.5
2015	35.2	35.2
2014	35.8	35.8
2013	38.3	38.3

 

[LibertyBell]

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Guidance is confirming that the warmer and less snowy March pattern which began in 2020 will continue. March used to be a colder and snowier more winter-like month from 2013 to 2019. So March is much more like a an early spring month during the 2020s.

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mar	Season
Mean	42.8	42.8
2023	41.8	41.8
2022	42.4	42.4
2021	42.4	42.4
2020	44.8	44.8

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mar	Season
Mean	0.8	0.8
2023	1.6	1.6
2022	1.6	1.6
2021	T	T
2020	T	T

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mar	Season
Mean	11.3	11.3
2019	4.1	4.1
2018	31.9	31.9
2017	7.4	7.4
2016	3.2	3.2
2015	19.7	19.7
2014	5.4	5.4
2013	7.4	7.4

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mar	Season
Mean	38.4	38.4
2019	38.7	38.7
2018	38.0	38.0
2017	37.1	37.1
2016	45.5	45.5
2015	35.2	35.2
2014	35.8	35.8
2013	38.3	38.3

 

the heat of March 2016 really stands out wow

 

[snowman19]

The PAC pattern stays God awful as far as the eye can see. ++EPO/++WPO and nothing but Pacific maritime air in Canada and the CONUS right through mid-March and beyond. Even if a -NAO/-AO develop, it won’t help, just traps PAC air underneath 

[JustinRP37]

It is odd how so many people seem giddy with the warmth. Do I like warm weather? Sure do, but not on February 27th. People telling MJO to move etc, umm this isn’t our normal weather either, so quite acting like 60s by late February is normal and a good thing. 

[JustinRP37]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

why werent there these wildfires back when we were much drier?

2002 was extremely dry-- much more than we are now and yet there were no wildfires?

The grass was parched yellow all summer....

We may have been dry, but they weren’t and they still had snow cover during winter. We are in a positive feedback loop with fires now, less snow cover in Canada leads to more fire. 

[donsutherland1]

36 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

It is odd how so many people seem giddy with the warmth. Do I like warm weather? Sure do, but not on February 27th. People telling MJO to move etc, umm this isn’t our normal weather either, so quite acting like 60s by late February is normal and a good thing. 

I agree. This warmth is both abnormal and unsettling. Today, Wausau’s high temperature demolished the all-time February record by 9F (5C). February records go back to 1896. 

That outcome was made 3 times more likely by climate change.

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

We may have been dry, but they weren’t and they still had snow cover during winter. We are in a positive feedback loop with fires now, less snow cover in Canada leads to more fire. 

we already have wildfires going on in Texas with temps in the 90s and a state of emergency and the smoke from those fires has made it up to us now as was noted in the evening news broadcasts.

 

[LibertyBell]

Back in 2020, I saw something I'll never forget.  I was in the Poconos for Presidents Day weekend in February and on Monday I was packing up the car to drive home and it was an extremely warm day just like today (maybe even warmer than today), crystal clear sky, no winds, very warm, etc.  For some reason I looked straight up at the zenith of the sky and saw a very strange sight-- a small spherical rainbow that was completely reversed in a clear blue sky (wth......)  in a normal rainbow red is the color on top and blue is at the bottom, but in this case, blue was on top and red was on the bottom, and it was directly overhead and there wasn't a single cloud in the sky.  So very strange and yet it was a sign....

Driving on I-80 on the way home passing through the Delaware Water Gap in western NJ I saw my first wildfire-- a fire was burning on the side of the mountain right next to the highway and just above it.  It was both a scary and an exciting sight to see my first wildfire-- just like it was when I experienced my first earthquake back in August 2011. I remember I checked the news as soon as I got back here and read that there had been an 80 acre fire.  What I had seen was the beginning of it.  This was the earliest I had ever heard of a wildfire in our area and 2019-2020 had very little snow (the most memorable snow that year was in May lol) and now I'm wondering if seeing that tiny spherical reversed rainbow in a completely clear sky was some sort of sign that there would be a wildfire there that very strange day.

[SnoSki14]

13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. This warmth is both abnormal and unsettling. Today, Wausau’s high temperature demolished the all-time February record by 9F (5C). February records go back to 1896. 

That outcome was made 3 times more likely by climate change.

I fear how bad this summer will be globally plus the likely hyperactive hurricane season 

[snowman19]

@bluewave So much for that mid-late March “pattern change”. The PAC is not going to change at all, +WPO/+EPO as expected. Another mirage in the never ending series of long range mirages since November…

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave So much for that mid-late March “pattern change”. The PAC is not going to change at all, +WPO/+EPO as expected. Another mirage in the never ending series of long range mirages since November…

This winter is a great example of the limitations of long range computer model forecasts beyond the 360 hr EPS and other models. All the EPS forecasts beyond 15 days defaulted to its seasonal forecast of -EPO -AO. My guess is this was based solely on the models simple structure of being able to detect the El Niño and not the long range MJO. Notice how the closer in we got to the late February into March period the more amplified the forcing became from the IO into WPAC. This has been the pattern all winter. Longer range models tried to weaken the convection in these areas only to see the stronger convection once within 2 weeks. I was discussing the record marine heatwave potential since last summer that I believed would occur once the -IOD rapidly reversed in December. This is why I had the warmer risks to the forecasts as the primary issue that I saw for the long range this winter. The EPS even had a cold bias for its first two weeks. 

[Dark Star]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave So much for that mid-late March “pattern change”. The PAC is not going to change at all, +WPO/+EPO as expected. Another mirage in the never ending series of long range mirages since November…

I was EXTREMELY skeptical of the brief cool down this February for the very same reasons...

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

@bluewave So much for that mid-late March “pattern change”. The PAC is not going to change at all, +WPO/+EPO as expected. Another mirage in the never ending series of long range mirages since November…

Warm/snowless winters rarely suddenly flip to cold/snow in Feb or March.   There was alot of reason to be skeptical.

[Brian5671]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This winter is a great example of the limitations of long range computer model forecasts beyond the 360 hr EPS and other models. All the EPS forecasts beyond 15 days defaulted to its seasonal forecast of -EPO -AO. My guess is this was based solely on the models simple structure of being able to detect the El Niño and not the long range MJO. Notice how the closer in we got to the late February into March period the more amplified the forcing became from the IO into WPAC. This has been the pattern all winter. Longer range models tried to weaken the convection in these areas only to see the stronger convection once within 2 weeks. I was discussing the record marine heatwave potential since last summer that I believed would occur once the -IOD rapidly reversed in December. This is why I had the warmer risks to the forecasts as the primary issue that I saw for the long range this winter. The EPS even had a cold bias for its first two weeks. 

I was wondering if those ultra long range models were simply defaulting to climo/El Nino which seems to be the case

[jm1220]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I was wondering if those ultra long range models were simply defaulting to climo/El Nino which seems to be the case

When the Pacific pattern/SST stays garbage, our outcome will be garbage. 72-73 was the last strong Nino with -PDO and that’s essentially what we got. We did a little better since we lucked out mid Feb. But overall torch among islands of brief cold, and well below normal snow. 

[donsutherland1]

Should NYC fail to see any additional measurable snow through March 10th, which appears likely right now, the odds would be tilted decidedly in favor of an unprecedented second consecutive season with less than 10" of snow. Winter 2023-24 will finish with a mean temperature of 40.5°. Of the 9 winters with a mean temperature of 39° or above, 7 (78%) saw less than 2.5" of snow from March 11 to the end of snow season (mean snowfall: 1.5"). Of the 13 winters with a mean temperature of 38° or above , 9 (64%) saw less than 2.5" of snow from March 11 to the end of snow season (mean snowfall: 2.4"). The subset of very warm winters (38° or above) that lacked snowfall through March 10 (less than 10") had mean snowfall of just 0.9" from March 11 to the end of snow season. Five of those six winters (83%) had less than 2.5". The lone exception was 1997-1998. The sample sizes are small highlighting the historic rarity of the kind of winter the region is experiencing.

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Should NYC fail to see any additional measurable snow through March 10th, which appears likely right now, the odds would be tilted decidedly in favor of an unprecedented second consecutive season with less than 10" of snow. Winter 2023-24 will finish with a mean temperature of 40.5°. Of the 9 winters with a mean temperature of 39° or above, 7 (78%) saw less than 2.5" of snow from March 11 to the end of snow season (mean snowfall: 1.5"). Of the 13 winters with a mean temperature of 38° or above , 9 (64%) saw less than 2.5" of snow from March 11 to the end of snow season (mean snowfall: 2.4"). The subset of very warm winters (38° or above) that lacked snowfall through March 10 (less than 10") had mean snowfall of just 0.9" from March 11 to the end of snow season. Five of those six winters (83%) had less than 2.5". The lone exception was 1997-1998. The sample sizes are small highlighting the historic rarity of the kind of winter the region is experiencing.

Hi Don, 

What does the latest "Winter Futility Chart" look like with just 1.5 days to go before meteorological winter is finished?

[snowman19]

35 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

When the Pacific pattern/SST stays garbage, our outcome will be garbage. 72-73 was the last strong Nino with -PDO and that’s essentially what we got. We did a little better since we lucked out mid Feb. But overall torch among islands of brief cold, and well below normal snow. 

This winter will be most remembered for long range cold and snow fantasies on the weeklies, on the 11-15 day ensembles and failed SSW attempts. Looking back on it, there were red flags all over the place back in November….the east-leaning super El Niño, the ++IOD, the blazing hot WPAC SSTs, strong -PDO, cold GOA, roaring PAC jet/jet extensions, the MJO wave trains, arctic cold locked on the other side of the globe in Eurasia, the record low snow and ice cover, very high solar activity, *possible* Hunga Tonga volcanic effects on the stratosphere, ++AMO; no semblance of a “tripole” in the Atlantic SSTs, AGW (big factor). The only thing we had going for us was the -QBO, which was not anywhere near enough of a factor to override the other bad stuff. There were also proven studies from Joe D’Aleo that a -QBO/El Nino combo leads to below normal snowfall along the east coast, I-95 corridor 

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This winter will be most remembered for long range cold and snow fantasies on the weeklies, on the 11-15 day ensembles and failed SSW attempts. Looking back on it, there were red flags all over the place back in November….the east-leaning super El Niño, the ++IOD, the blazing hot WPAC SSTs, strong -PDO, cold GOA, roaring PAC jet/jet extensions, the MJO wave trains, arctic cold locked on the other side of the globe in Eurasia, the record low snow and ice cover, very high solar activity, *possible* Hunga Tonga volcanic effects on the stratosphere, ++AMO; no semblance of a “tripole” in the Atlantic SSTs, AGW (big factor). The only thing we had going for us was the -QBO, which was not anywhere near enough of a factor to override the other bad stuff. There were also proven studies from Joe D’Aleo that a -QBO/El Nino combo leads to below normal snowfall along the east coast, I-95 corridor 

Just to add, the arctic air staying locked in Eurasia ended up being one of the biggest red flags….that has been a staple in some of our worst winters of all time 

[Brian5671]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

This winter will be most remembered for long range cold and snow fantasies on the weeklies, on the 11-15 day ensembles and failed SSW attempts. Looking back on it, there were red flags all over the place back in November….the east-leaning super El Niño, the ++IOD, the blazing hot WPAC SSTs, strong -PDO, cold GOA, roaring PAC jet/jet extensions, the MJO wave trains, arctic cold locked on the other side of the globe in Eurasia, the record low snow and ice cover, very high solar activity, *possible* Hunga Tonga volcanic effects on the stratosphere, ++AMO; no semblance of a “tripole” in the Atlantic SSTs, AGW (big factor). The only thing we had going for us was the -QBO, which was not anywhere near enough of a factor to override the other bad stuff. There were also proven studies from Joe D’Aleo that a -QBO/El Nino combo leads to below normal snowfall along the east coast, I-95 corridor 

The December pac jet extension was the first issue-this delayed the pattern change to mid Jan.  There was also very limited snow cover anywhere in North America by the end of Dec.  When the cold and some snow did finally arrive, it was of short duration (and centered to our west) and even before it started models were showing warmth coming  right back.   At that point it was somewhat clear that it was an isle of cold in a sea of warmth, but the usual twitter suspects went with a big longer lasting pattern change which really never materialized....yess we had some colder days mid Feb and we absolutely lucked out with 2 moderate snow storms with some spot picking up 20 inches b/w the 2.    Really lucky there...usually this type of winter is a shutout or close to it.

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The December pac jet extension was the first issue-this delayed the pattern change to mid Jan.  There was also very limited snow cover anywhere in North America by the end of Dec.  When the cold and some snow did finally arrive, it was of short duration (and centered to our west) and even before it started models were showing warmth coming  right back.   At that point it was somewhat clear that it was an isle of cold in a sea of warmth, but the usual twitter suspects went with a big longer lasting pattern change which really never materialized....yess we had some colder days mid Feb and we absolutely lucked out with 2 moderate snow storms with some spot picking up 20 inches b/w the 2.    Really lucky there...usually this type of winter is a shutout or close to it.

December during Nino is usually bad here. When big Arctic outbreaks started dumping into the Plains in Jan and we kept getting the SE ridge, that to me was the big red flag because then is when we’re supposed to flip more favorable. Instead the pattern went to typical Nina which is lousy for us late in winter. 

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

December during Nino is usually bad here. When big Arctic outbreaks started dumping into the Plains in Jan and we kept getting the SE ridge, that to me was the big red flag because then is when we’re supposed to flip more favorable. Instead the pattern went to typical Nina which is lousy for us late in winter. 

if it snows during December in an el nino you know it's going to be a good winter like 2002-03