March 2024

[LibertyBell]

On 3/6/2024 at 5:19 PM, bluewave said:

My guess is that the long range model error is the inability of the models to resolve the MJO. So this introduces a significant cold bias. Convection keeps reloading in the warm phases. The stock El Niño seasonal default doesn’t normally include so much MJO 4-7 action. In the old days, the MJO was weak or inactive in these phases during stronger El Niño’s. So the record WPAC warm pool is competing with the typical El Niño warm pool. The long range models must not be able to give reliable long range forecasts  when there are other marine heatwaves competing with the El Niño. All forecasts beyond a week or two have been defaulting to the stock El Niño seasonal forecasts issued in November with that big Southeast El Nino trough which didn’t verify this winter. WPAC forcing promotes more of a ridge in these areas.

I dont blame "weenies" I blame the people who designed these models, do they not know how to debug and correct these models? all programmers know how to debug...... they should theoretically be able to adjust the way they handle the MJO when they see these errors occurring.

 

 

[SnoSki14]

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Something has to be done 

How can we trust the long range anymore? 

Go warm and ridgey and you'll win 9 out of 10 times 

The climate is different, people need to accept it. 

I think we get hit hard this hurricane season. These SE ridges are bad news 

[Brian5671]

14 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is trying to give us some hope

It has a cold bias in the Long Range.   You should know this by now.   There is no cold or snow coming.  Winter is over and has been over since mid Feb.

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Something has to be done 

How can we trust the long range anymore? 

has hour 348 ever been reliable?

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’m not well versed in African climatology but this seems a little extreme to me for March:

https://watchers.news/2024/03/12/thousands-of-high-temperature-records-broken-across-africa/

It has been exceptional. One location in South Africa had a high of 117.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It has been exceptional. One location in South Africa had a high of 117.

It's not even summer yet lol.

Do you have any advance forecast for cloud conditions for the total solar eclipse on April 8th in the region of totality (I'm looking for the forecast for the area near Syracuse.)

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

38 tp 46 already and a nice dry/warm stretch ahead.    Records appear safe (missed by a day with today lowest record highs of the next few days).   Clouds showers by Fri could keep it below 70. This weekend looks good Sat / perhaps more rain Sun. Cool down 3/19 - 3/23 or 3/24.  

 

 

Tony any advance forecasts for cloud cover for Syracuse for the total solar eclipse on April 8th?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Same old pattern longer range as it’s now only a brief cool down days 6-10 before we warm up again. Models continue to struggle with these week 2 forecasts which have been running too cold all winter. The underestimation of the Southeast ridge or WAR has been going on since 15-16.

New run

 

Old run

Well, maybe they do better with cloud cover forecasts?  Do you have any advance thoughts on what the cloud coverage might be like for Syracuse on April 8th for the total solar eclipse, Chris?

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The wind, which gusted past 50 mph in much of the region today will gradually diminish overnight. Afterward, it will seem as if the calendar had been turned forward into April.

It will turn noticeably milder starting tomorrow. The warmth will peak during Wednesday through Friday with the temperature rising into the lower and middle 60s in the New York City area and lower and middle 70s from Philadelphia and southward. The generally mild conditions will persist through mid-month.

There is growing consensus on the guidance that a deep trough could develop just after mid-month. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no direct Arctic shots are likely. As a result, any cold will likely not be severe for the season and the potential exists for the cooler period to last one to perhaps two weeks, much as occurred in February. Any sharper cold shots will likely have a short duration. The closing days of the month could turn warmer.

No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 15th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has increased. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.4°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.53°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was -3.16 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.287 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.2° (3.4° above normal).

 

The cooler period will likely just be from March 19-25..... the best it will give us is our last freeze in the city and close in suburbs.

Hopefully cool and dry since it wont be cold enough for snow.

[TJW014]

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Well, maybe they do better with cloud cover forecasts?  Do you have any advance thoughts on what the cloud coverage might be like for Syracuse on April 8th for the total solar eclipse, Chris?

 

They can't even get the cloud cover right for the current day sometimes. Could be forecast with 99% sun and all it takes is one cloud to completely ruin the experience. Planning on hitting the northern ADKs that Sunday, camping over, then hiking up Lyon Mountain

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

They can't even get the cloud cover right for the current day sometimes. Could be forecast with 99% sun and all it takes is one cloud to completely ruin the experience. Planning on hitting the northern ADKs that Sunday, camping over, then hiking up Lyon Mountain

oh you're going to get an amazing view as long as the weather cooperates.

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I dont blame "weenies" I blame the people who designed these models, do they not know how to debug and correct these models? all programmers know how to debug...... they should theoretically be able to adjust the way they handle the MJO when they see these errors occurring.

 

 

The main story is that we are adding more heat to the system faster than our technology can keep up with. So most of the time the first indication of a change or shift in our climate comes after it has already been observed.  But with the introduction of AI, there is some hope that these longer range MJO forecasts will eventually be able to see stronger forcing and convection in the MJO 4-7 phases. While this has been an issue even during the La Ninas in recent years, the long range cold bias was more obvious this year since it was an El Niño. The paper below describes how this forecast error could be addressed with AI. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00478-0

Over the past half-century, there has been an increasing trend in the magnitude and duration of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) attributable to the significant warming trend in the Western Pacific (WP). The MJO, bridging weather and climate, influences global and regional climate through atmospheric teleconnections, and climate models can predict it for up to 4–5 weeks. In this study, we use deep learning (DL) methods to investigate the predictability of the MJO-related western Pacific precipitation on a multi-month time scale (5–9 weeks). We examine numerous potential predictors across the tropics, selected based on major MJO theories and mechanisms, to identify key factors for long-term MJO prediction. Our results show that DL-based useful potential predictability of the WP precipitation can be extended up to 6–7 weeks, with a correlation coefficient skill ranging from 0.60 to 0.65. Observational and heat map analysis suggest that cooling anomalies in the central Pacific play a crucial role in enhancing westerly anomalies over the Indian Ocean and warming in the WP, thereby strengthening the Walker circulation in the equatorial Pacific. In addition, the predictability of WP precipitation is higher in La Nina years than in El Nino or normal years, suggesting that mean cooling in the central Pacific may contribute to increased predictability of the MJO-related WP precipitation on the multi-month time scale. Additional model experiments using observed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the central Pacific confirmed that these anomalies contribute to enhanced MJO-related convective anomalies over the WP. The study highlights that DL is a valuable tool not only for improving MJO-related WP prediction but also for efficiently exploring potential mechanisms linked to long-term predictability.

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

It has a cold bias in the Long Range.   You should know this by now.   There is no cold or snow coming.  Winter is over and has been over since mid Feb.

We’ve seen these long range head fakes to cold time after time since Oct had these great monthly maps for winter just to get blown away by the rampaging Pacific jet. Until the Pacific SST orientation changes in a meaningful way particularly off Japan and Indonesia we’re probably staying screwed. This winter functioned for much of it like a Nina with a more active southern jet that made it more wet. We had maybe 10 days that ended up being favorable for snow out of the whole winter. 

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We’ve seen these long range head fakes to cold time after time since Oct had these great monthly maps for winter just to get blown away by the rampaging Pacific jet. Until the Pacific SST orientation changes in a meaningful way particularly off Japan and Indonesia we’re probably staying screwed. This winter functioned for much of it like a Nina with a more active southern jet that made it more wet. We had maybe 10 days that ended up being favorable for snow out of the whole winter. 

In some ways it was just a wetter version of 01-02 and 11-12 both of which featured incredible coast to coast warmth but very dry.   Locally we had a 10 day stretch of favorable cold/snow both those seasons and that was it.    March could feature a +7 departure given what little cold looks to develop.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

has hour 348 ever been reliable?

Even 200 hours out

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It's not even summer yet lol.

Do you have any advance forecast for cloud conditions for the total solar eclipse on April 8th in the region of totality (I'm looking for the forecast for the area near Syracuse.)

 

In South Africa, summer has ended.

Unfortunately, there's no skill whatsoever on cloud forecasts from this far out.

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Even 200 hours out

OP models beyond 144 hrs are generally worthless

[MJO812]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

OP models beyond 144 hrs are generally worthless

Agree

[Volcanic Winter]

The reality of the present situation is that those who still stand opposed and defiant to global warming will see their convictions tested by the sheer force of overwhelming reality. I suspect outright rejection will shift to the common “it’s just natural cycles, the earth’s always changing” fallacy that’s already increasing in prevalence as more people accept that the planet is warming. 
 

The problem with the latter argument is that there’s a kernel of truth to it, but proponents typically lack the knowledge to properly contextualize natural climate change with what’s been observed in the past hundred years. So I suspect that form of denialism will be the toughest to overcome, but it’ll eventually happen. The problem is simply that it needs to happen now, it’s already too late in the sense that massive warming is already “locked in.” 

I’ve never been an optimist about this, the reality for me has always been it’s going to get really bad before enough people globally are onboard that there’s any meaningful shift to carbon policy. Meaningful in the sense of substantive result. 

Gonna be interesting, to say the least. 

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The reality of the present situation is that those who still stand opposed and defiant to global warming will see their convictions tested by the sheer force of overwhelming reality. I suspect outright rejection will shift to the common “it’s just natural cycles, the earth’s always changing” fallacy that’s already increasing in prevalence as more people accept that the planet is warming. 
 

The problem with the latter argument is that there’s a kernel of truth to it, but proponents typically lack the knowledge to properly contextualize natural climate change with what’s been observed in the past hundred years. So I suspect that form of denialism will be the toughest to overcome, but it’ll eventually happen. The problem is simply that it needs to happen now, it’s already too late in the sense that massive warming is already “locked in.” 

I’ve never been an optimist about this, the reality for me has always been it’s going to get really bad before enough people globally are onboard that there’s any meaningful shift to carbon policy. Meaningful in the sense of substantive result. 

Gonna be interesting, to say the least. 

The earth has always changed but the planet has not been hospitable to human life through most of its existence.

Do we really want to return to the Mesozoic era? Or even worse, the Paleozoic?

 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Well, maybe they do better with cloud cover forecasts?  Do you have any advance thoughts on what the cloud coverage might be like for Syracuse on April 8th for the total solar eclipse, Chris?

 

For that area and time period, climatology suggest a 70-80% cloud cover.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The main story is that we are adding more heat to the system faster than our technology can keep up with. So most of the time the first indication of a change or shift in our climate comes after it has already been observed.  But with the introduction of AI, there is some hope that these longer range MJO forecasts will eventually be able to see stronger forcing and convection in the MJO 4-7 phases. While this has been an issue even during the La Ninas in recent years, the long range cold bias was more obvious this year since it was an El Niño. The paper below describes how this forecast error could be addressed with AI. 
 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00478-0

Over the past half-century, there has been an increasing trend in the magnitude and duration of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) attributable to the significant warming trend in the Western Pacific (WP). The MJO, bridging weather and climate, influences global and regional climate through atmospheric teleconnections, and climate models can predict it for up to 4–5 weeks. In this study, we use deep learning (DL) methods to investigate the predictability of the MJO-related western Pacific precipitation on a multi-month time scale (5–9 weeks). We examine numerous potential predictors across the tropics, selected based on major MJO theories and mechanisms, to identify key factors for long-term MJO prediction. Our results show that DL-based useful potential predictability of the WP precipitation can be extended up to 6–7 weeks, with a correlation coefficient skill ranging from 0.60 to 0.65. Observational and heat map analysis suggest that cooling anomalies in the central Pacific play a crucial role in enhancing westerly anomalies over the Indian Ocean and warming in the WP, thereby strengthening the Walker circulation in the equatorial Pacific. In addition, the predictability of WP precipitation is higher in La Nina years than in El Nino or normal years, suggesting that mean cooling in the central Pacific may contribute to increased predictability of the MJO-related WP precipitation on the multi-month time scale. Additional model experiments using observed sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the central Pacific confirmed that these anomalies contribute to enhanced MJO-related convective anomalies over the WP. The study highlights that DL is a valuable tool not only for improving MJO-related WP prediction but also for efficiently exploring potential mechanisms linked to long-term predictability.

 

Wow, AI can benefit us in multiple ways.

I look forward to the time when AI will replace all forms of government, or at least, assist them.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

For that area and time period, climatology suggest a 70-80% cloud cover.

Thanks, it's what I saw too.  Pretty much all of upstate NY is in the 60-80 percent cloud cover range.

[BucksCO_PA]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

The NYC 3 coldest winters since the 28.4°in 76-77 were 93-94, 02-03, and 14-15.

77-78 winter was colder than all 3 of those winters. 

If you extend that out thru March 1977-78 was actually colder than that same period during 1976-77. The 2014-15 DEC-MAR period is only a tick warmer than the 1976-77 DEC-MAR timeframe. 

The 2015 JAN-MAR period was the coldest since 1934

[SnoSki14]

The problem with climate change is that it's a slow process so by the time reality hits it'll already be too late.

However the recent acceleration could shift perspectives a bit. 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, BucksCO_PA said:

77-78 winter was colder than all 3 of those winters. 

If you extend that out thru March 1977-78 was actually colder than that same period during 1976-77. The 2014-15 DEC-MAR period is only a tick warmer than the 1976-77 DEC-MAR timeframe. 

The 2015 JAN-MAR period was the coldest since 1934

The JAN-MAR 15 period still finished above 30.0 in NYC at 30.9. So it was comparable to DJF 14-15 at 31.4.

Decembers have warmed too much since the 70s and 80s to allow a full winter to finish below 30.0° like 76-77 did. December 14 came in at 40.5° with 60s on Christmas Day. So the cold got started too late to compete against the really cold winters like 76-77.

The cold also ended too quickly in 15 to have a memorable spring MAM cold ranking. In fact May 15 was the 2nd warmest on record in NYC.

The cold was so impressive in 76-77 that it was the 7th coldest fall and winter on record. That kind of 6 month extended cold is no longer possible from the fall into winter. These days the early to sometimes mid fall is like another summer month. Temperatures in 1977 actually rebounded for a time in the early spring like a delayed thaw. Then the historic snowstorm occurred in May. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Feb 28	Missing Count
1	1869-02-28	34.7	122
2	1918-02-28	39.2	0
3	1881-02-28	39.9	0
4	1888-02-29	40.2	0
5	1872-02-29	40.7	2
6	1873-02-28	40.8	0
7	1977-02-28	41.1	0
8	1893-02-28	41.2	0
-	1884-02-29	41.2	0
9	1904-02-29	41.3	2
10	1905-02-28	41.4	0
-	1883-02-28	41.4	0

[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

77-78 winter was colder than all 3 of those winters. 

If you extend that out thru March 1977-78 was actually colder than that same period during 1976-77. The 2014-15 DEC-MAR period is only a tick warmer than the 1976-77 DEC-MAR timeframe. 

The 2015 JAN-MAR period was the coldest since 1934

Thats why 2014-2015 was such an awesome winter.... snow and cold.

1976-77 was a colossal bore, I am glad I was not aware enough to remember, cold without snow is a huge waste and energy burden and we had some huge energy problems in the 70s.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The JAN-MAR 15 period still finished above 30.0 in NYC at 30.9. So it was comparable to DJF 14-15 at 31.4.

Decembers have warmed too much since the 70s and 80s to allow a full winter to finish below 30.0° like 76-77 did. December 14 came in at 40.5° with 60s on Christmas Day. So the cold got started too late to compete against the really cold winters like 76-77.

The cold also ended too quickly in 15 to have a memorable spring MAM cold ranking. In fact May 15 was the 2nd warmest on record in NYC.

The cold was so impressive in 76-77 that it was the 7th coldest fall and winter on record. That kind of 6 month extended cold is no longer possible from the fall into winter. These days the early to sometimes mid fall is like another summer month. Temperatures in 1977 actually rebounded for a time in the early spring like a delayed thaw. Then the historic snowstorm occurred in May. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Feb 28	Missing Count
1	1869-02-28	34.7	122
2	1918-02-28	39.2	0
3	1881-02-28	39.9	0
4	1888-02-29	40.2	0
5	1872-02-29	40.7	2
6	1873-02-28	40.8	0
7	1977-02-28	41.1	0
8	1893-02-28	41.2	0
-	1884-02-29	41.2	0
9	1904-02-29	41.3	2
10	1905-02-28	41.4	0
-	1883-02-28	41.4	0

But if we were around and on here back then we would have hated the 76-77 winter, it was a waste of cold air.

2014-15 was MUCH better.

[Brian5671]

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The problem with climate change is that it's a slow process so by the time reality hits it'll already be too late.

However the recent acceleration could shift perspectives a bit. 

We've slowly gotten used to the warmth.   This type of winter climate the last 10 yrs is more like central Virginia

[Brian5671]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

But if we were around and on here back then we would have hated the 76-77 winter, it was a waste of cold air.

2014-15 was MUCH better.

76-77 was too cold for much snow-cold and dry