March 2024

[Eduardo]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

That was the only winter that I experienced which could be compared to the little ice age before the global temperatures took off like a rocket after 1980. Walking to the school bus stop was quite an experience. It was the last time NYC had a top 10 coldest winter averaging in the 20s. 

I would love to have this kind of cold return, even if it were dry.  Much preferable to the winter warmth to which we have become accustomed.

[snywx]

51 for a peak gust here

[Sn0waddict]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah it has underperformed here all day

Seems like it has picked up here now that the sun is out.

[jm1220]

JFK gusted to 53 last hour and LGA gusted to 58. I wouldn’t say it’s underperforming. I’d say here it’s gusting to 45 or higher at times. If anything maybe Upton should’ve gone with high wind warnings. 

[Picard]

Washout to sub-20% humidity in some places this afternoon.
Loving the deep blue skies.  It would be a perfect early spring day if not for the gusty winds.

[Snowshack]

2 hours ago, Eduardo said:

I would love to have this kind of cold return, even if it were dry.  Much preferable to the winter warmth to which we have become accustomed.

Hard to imagine NYC under 30 for a winter again.  Burlington Vt didn’t even average under 30 degrees this year.  

[donsutherland1]

The wind, which gusted past 50 mph in much of the region today will gradually diminish overnight. Afterward, it will seem as if the calendar had been turned forward into April.

It will turn noticeably milder starting tomorrow. The warmth will peak during Wednesday through Friday with the temperature rising into the lower and middle 60s in the New York City area and lower and middle 70s from Philadelphia and southward. The generally mild conditions will persist through mid-month.

There is growing consensus on the guidance that a deep trough could develop just after mid-month. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no direct Arctic shots are likely. As a result, any cold will likely not be severe for the season and the potential exists for the cooler period to last one to perhaps two weeks, much as occurred in February. Any sharper cold shots will likely have a short duration. The closing days of the month could turn warmer.

No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 15th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has increased. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.4°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.53°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was -3.16 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.287 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.2° (3.4° above normal).

 

[MJO812]

Gfs is trying to give us some hope

[forkyfork]

we just got high winds from a march cold front and tonight's temps are going to be above normal 

[Snowguy66]

No DT threw in the towel weeks ago

Yes, I remember. He said he wasn’t optimistic. But how many times did he hype up the upcoming pattern? Not just this year but every year. The dude is quick to criticize someone else’s forecast, or outlook. to the point of being outright rude. I think he’s a schmuck and a total you know what. I remember when I first heard about him. I thought he really knew his stuff and seemed to be accurate but boy I was mistaken. I don’t know of too many meteorologist, who have been as wrong as he has over the years. Thank God he doesn’t post on here anymore.


.

[wishcast_hater]

22 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

Yes, I remember. He said he wasn’t optimistic. But how many times did he hype up the upcoming pattern? Not just this year but every year. The dude is quick to criticize someone else’s forecast, or outlook. to the point of being outright rude. I think he’s a schmuck and a total you know what. I remember when I first heard about him. I thought he really knew his stuff and seemed to be accurate but boy I was mistaken. I don’t know of too many meteorologist, who have been as wrong as he has over the years. Thank God he doesn’t post on here anymore.


.

I never watched him before this year but I thought he was level headed and explained things rather well.  After hearing everyone always criticizing him I paid close attention to his comments and never found him making bold or outlandish predictions.  He had high hopes after the first week of January for the pattern change like most of us but he never pulled a JB promising cold and snow when there was no evidence for it.

[bkviking]

4 hours ago, lee59 said:

I was living in Connecticut at the time. You could look out at Long Island Sound and see nothing but ice.

This was Port Jefferson Harbor , March 7 , 2015. The last great freeze. People were still walking out on this ice field as of March 1, 2015. I have pictures of that. 

[Dan76]

I have pictures of 76-77 of ice around Meadowbrook  bridge and state boat channel,but god knows where they are.

[donsutherland1]

Is an old story set to play out yet again?

ECMWF Weeklies for March 18-25 from March 10:

ECMWF Weeklies for March 18-25 from March 11:

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah I can’t even imagine, that does appear to have been a close facsimile of a LIA winter. If a similar pattern regime were to happen today, how modified do you think the airmass would be? Would think it’d still be significantly colder than any recent winter just not to the level of 76-77. 

I do think we’re more than due for a winter with a colder pattern locking into the east, but perhaps the Pac temp regimes are unsupportive of such a thing happening, and who knows when that will change. 

I’’m at the bargaining stage. Just give me one extended, relative “cold” winter compared to this post 2016 hothouse phase and I’ll be satisfied. 

The NYC 3 coldest winters since the 28.4°in 76-77 were 93-94, 02-03, and 14-15. They were around 3° warmer than 76-77 at just under 32.0°.  But we saw the big jump in winter temperatures since 14-15. So NYC may have warmed too much even see another winter like those below 32.0°. Our coldest winter since then was only around 36.0°.  

The one consolation of all the warmth over the last 9 winters is NYC hasn’t seen any winter DJF average as far above the baseline as 31-32 was yet. 15-16 started out on a pace to surpass the 31-32 magnitude above the baseline but it slowed down. So if we eventually see that much of a NYC winter departure in the coming years, then it would mean NYC would get its first 43.5° winter.

 

 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, bkviking said:

This was Port Jefferson Harbor , March 7 , 2015. The last great freeze. People were still walking out on this ice field as of March 1, 2015. I have pictures of that. 

That was epic. Wading River looked like Alaska. Then came Dec 2015 and the rest is history

[bluewave]

Nice improvements from the 0z runs. We now have a shot at 3 days reaching 70° in the warmer spots from Wednesday into Friday. Looks like the backdoor stays just north of NYC into Friday. But sections just NE may get into onshore flow. 
 

[TJW014]

Winds decoupled last night, and managed to drop down to 34 degrees. Gonna make a run for the mid-60s today, maybe a little cooler along the shore, but WNW flow should prevent the marine layer from blowing in

[Volcanic Winter]

I’m not well versed in African climatology but this seems a little extreme to me for March:

https://watchers.news/2024/03/12/thousands-of-high-temperature-records-broken-across-africa/

[bluewave]

Same old pattern longer range as it’s now only a brief cool down days 6-10 before we warm up again. Models continue to struggle with these week 2 forecasts which have been running too cold all winter. The underestimation of the Southeast ridge or WAR has been going on since 15-16.

New run

 

Old run

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Same old pattern longer range as it’s now only a brief cool down days 6-10 before we warm up again. Models continue to struggle with these week 2 forecasts which have been running too cold all winter. The underestimation of the Southeast ridge or WAR has been going on since 15-16.

New run

 

Old run

Something has to be done 

How can we trust the long range anymore? 

[snowman19]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Something has to be done 

How can we trust the long range anymore? 

The problem is also the people who are still falling for this after the last 5 months in a row. Cold and snow and blocking fail in the long range over and over again. This has literally been going on since November. Shame on them

[donsutherland1]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Same old pattern longer range as it’s now only a brief cool down days 6-10 before we warm up again. Models continue to struggle with these week 2 forecasts which have been running too cold all winter. The underestimation of the Southeast ridge or WAR has been going on since 15-16.

New run

 

Old run

The CFSv2 also shows less cold air for Week 2:

March 10:

March 11:

[SACRUS]

 

38 tp 46 already and a nice dry/warm stretch ahead.    Records appear safe (missed by a day with today lowest record highs of the next few days).   Clouds showers by Fri could keep it below 70. This weekend looks good Sat / perhaps more rain Sun. Cool down 3/19 - 3/23 or 3/24.  

 

 

[LibertyBell]

On 3/5/2024 at 7:13 AM, bluewave said:

Hopefully the models are correct and we can sneak in another 70° day next week after all the rain through the coming weekend. 
 

It's going to happen this week

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

38 tp 46 already and a nice dry/warm stretch ahead.    Records appear safe (missed by a day with today lowest record highs of the next few days).   Clouds showers by Fri could keep it below 70. This weekend looks good Sat / perhaps more rain Sun. Cool down 3/19 - 3/23 or 3/24.  

 

 

cool and dry? 40s and sunshine next week is fine by me.

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 73 (2012)
NYC: 71 (2012)
LGA: 69 (2021)


Lows:

EWR: 13 (1934)
NYC: 8 (1888)
LGA: 15 (1984)


Historical:

1888 - A blizzard paralyzed southeastern New York State and western New England. The storm produced 58 inches of snow at Saratoga NY, and 50 inches at Middletown CT. The blizzard was followed by record cold temperatures, and the cold and snow claimed 400 lives. New York City received 20.9 inches of snow, Albany NY reported 46.7 inches. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1928: The St. Frances dam near Santa Paula, California, burst before midnight, sending 138,000 acres of water rushing down the San Francisquito Canyon, killing 450 people. The dam was designed and built between 1924 and 1926 by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, then named the Bureau of Water Works and Supply.

1954 - A blizzard raged from eastern Wyoming into the Black Hills of western South Dakota, while a severe ice storm was in progress from northeastern Nebraska to central Iowa. The ice storm isolated 153 towns in Iowa. Dust from the Great Plains caused brown snow, and hail and muddy rain over parts of Wisconsin and Michigan. (11th-13th) (The Weather Channel)

1967 - A tremendous four day storm raged across California. Winds of 90 mph closed mountain passes, heavy rains flooded the lowlands, and in sixty hours Squaw Valley CA was buried under 96 inches (eight feet) of snow. (David Ludlum)

 

1976: A massive tornado outbreak spawned tornadoes in the Great Lakes and Midwest, including 9 in northern Indiana and extreme southern Michigan. A tornado missed President Ford's motorcade by a quarter-mile near O'Hare. The next morning, he got out of his vehicle to view the damage. 

1987 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S., with gale force winds along the Middle Atlantic Coast. A storm in the Pacific Northwest produced rain and gale force winds. Crescent City CA received 2.27 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A powerful storm produced high winds and heavy snow in the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region. Winds gusting to 70 mph produced snow drifts six feet high in Minnesota, and sent twelve foot waves on Lake Superior over the breakwalls of the ship canal at Duluth MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - An early season heat wave continued in the southwestern and central U.S. Nineteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Wichita Falls TX, which six days earlier reported a record low of 8 above, reported a record high of 95 degrees. Childress TX was the first spot in the country in 1989 to hit the century mark. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast, with afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s. Seventy-six cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Downtown Baltimore MD was the hot spot in the nation with a record high of 95 degrees, which smashed their previous record for the date by nineteen degrees. Other record highs included 89 degrees at Washington D.C. and 90 degrees at Raleigh NC. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1993: An incredible blizzard known as "The Superstorm" struck the eastern United States on this date through the 15th. The storm was described as the most costly non-tropical storm ever to hit the U.S., doing an estimated $6 billion in damage. The storm was as strong as a hurricane regarding winds and low pressure. The pressure dropped to an incredible 28.35 inches of mercury or 960 millibars when then the storm was located over the Chesapeake Bay. Boston, Massachusetts, recorded a wind gust to 81 mph, the most substantial wind they had recorded since Hurricane Edna in 1954. Also, as the storm was intensifying over the Gulf of Mexico, a wind gust to 99 mph was recorded by an offshore oil rig. It dumped incredible amounts of snow from Alabama to New England. The snow amounts were significant everywhere, but for places like Birmingham, Alabama, the 17 inches recorded brought the city to a standstill for three days. Mount Leconte, North Carolina, recorded 60 inches of snow. Practically every weather station in West Virginia established a new 24-hour snowfall record during the event. Syracuse, New York was buried under 43 inches of snow. The storm killed 220 people, and another 48 lost at sea. The storm also brought a 12-foot storm surge and 15 tornadoes to Florida, where 51 people were killed. Air travel was brought to a halt as every major airport from Atlanta north was closed during the height of the storm. During the late evening into the early morning hours of the 13th, a vicious squall line swept through Florida and spawned 11 tornadoes resulting in five fatalities. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 110 mph at Alligator Point and 109 mph at Dry Tortugas. Exceptionally high tides occurred along the western Florida coast. A 13-foot storm surge occurred in Taylor County, Florida, resulting in 10 deaths with 57 residences destroyed. A 5 to 8-foot storm surge moved ashore in Dixie County. Over 500 homes were destroyed, with major damage to another 700 structures. Click HERE for more information from the University of Illinois.
 

2006 - High school senior Matt Suter survives being blown 1,307 feet by a tornado. (The exact distance is determined by NWS GPS.) The twister rips open his grandmother's mobile home and tosses Suter into the night, launching him over a barbed wire fence and eventually depositing him on the soft grass in an open field. He suffers only a head wound from being hit by a lamp. The Weather Doctor's Diary

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The problem is also the people who are still falling for this after the last 5 months in a row. Cold and snow and blocking fail in the long range over and over again. This has literally been going on since November. Shame on them

why doesn't someone correct these models?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

 

EWR: 73 (2012)
NYC: 71 (2012)
LGA: 69 (2021)


Lows:

EWR: 13 (1934)
NYC: 8 (1888)
LGA: 15 (1984)


Historical:

1888 - A blizzard paralyzed southeastern New York State and western New England. The storm produced 58 inches of snow at Saratoga NY, and 50 inches at Middletown CT. The blizzard was followed by record cold temperatures, and the cold and snow claimed 400 lives. New York City received 20.9 inches of snow, Albany NY reported 46.7 inches. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1928: The St. Frances dam near Santa Paula, California, burst before midnight, sending 138,000 acres of water rushing down the San Francisquito Canyon, killing 450 people. The dam was designed and built between 1924 and 1926 by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, then named the Bureau of Water Works and Supply.

1954 - A blizzard raged from eastern Wyoming into the Black Hills of western South Dakota, while a severe ice storm was in progress from northeastern Nebraska to central Iowa. The ice storm isolated 153 towns in Iowa. Dust from the Great Plains caused brown snow, and hail and muddy rain over parts of Wisconsin and Michigan. (11th-13th) (The Weather Channel)

1967 - A tremendous four day storm raged across California. Winds of 90 mph closed mountain passes, heavy rains flooded the lowlands, and in sixty hours Squaw Valley CA was buried under 96 inches (eight feet) of snow. (David Ludlum)

 

1976: A massive tornado outbreak spawned tornadoes in the Great Lakes and Midwest, including 9 in northern Indiana and extreme southern Michigan. A tornado missed President Ford's motorcade by a quarter-mile near O'Hare. The next morning, he got out of his vehicle to view the damage. 

1987 - Unseasonably cold weather prevailed in the southeastern U.S., with gale force winds along the Middle Atlantic Coast. A storm in the Pacific Northwest produced rain and gale force winds. Crescent City CA received 2.27 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A powerful storm produced high winds and heavy snow in the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region. Winds gusting to 70 mph produced snow drifts six feet high in Minnesota, and sent twelve foot waves on Lake Superior over the breakwalls of the ship canal at Duluth MN. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - An early season heat wave continued in the southwestern and central U.S. Nineteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Wichita Falls TX, which six days earlier reported a record low of 8 above, reported a record high of 95 degrees. Childress TX was the first spot in the country in 1989 to hit the century mark. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast, with afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s. Seventy-six cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Downtown Baltimore MD was the hot spot in the nation with a record high of 95 degrees, which smashed their previous record for the date by nineteen degrees. Other record highs included 89 degrees at Washington D.C. and 90 degrees at Raleigh NC. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1993: An incredible blizzard known as "The Superstorm" struck the eastern United States on this date through the 15th. The storm was described as the most costly non-tropical storm ever to hit the U.S., doing an estimated $6 billion in damage. The storm was as strong as a hurricane regarding winds and low pressure. The pressure dropped to an incredible 28.35 inches of mercury or 960 millibars when then the storm was located over the Chesapeake Bay. Boston, Massachusetts, recorded a wind gust to 81 mph, the most substantial wind they had recorded since Hurricane Edna in 1954. Also, as the storm was intensifying over the Gulf of Mexico, a wind gust to 99 mph was recorded by an offshore oil rig. It dumped incredible amounts of snow from Alabama to New England. The snow amounts were significant everywhere, but for places like Birmingham, Alabama, the 17 inches recorded brought the city to a standstill for three days. Mount Leconte, North Carolina, recorded 60 inches of snow. Practically every weather station in West Virginia established a new 24-hour snowfall record during the event. Syracuse, New York was buried under 43 inches of snow. The storm killed 220 people, and another 48 lost at sea. The storm also brought a 12-foot storm surge and 15 tornadoes to Florida, where 51 people were killed. Air travel was brought to a halt as every major airport from Atlanta north was closed during the height of the storm. During the late evening into the early morning hours of the 13th, a vicious squall line swept through Florida and spawned 11 tornadoes resulting in five fatalities. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 110 mph at Alligator Point and 109 mph at Dry Tortugas. Exceptionally high tides occurred along the western Florida coast. A 13-foot storm surge occurred in Taylor County, Florida, resulting in 10 deaths with 57 residences destroyed. A 5 to 8-foot storm surge moved ashore in Dixie County. Over 500 homes were destroyed, with major damage to another 700 structures. Click HERE for more information from the University of Illinois.
 

2006 - High school senior Matt Suter survives being blown 1,307 feet by a tornado. (The exact distance is determined by NWS GPS.) The twister rips open his grandmother's mobile home and tosses Suter into the night, launching him over a barbed wire fence and eventually depositing him on the soft grass in an open field. He suffers only a head wound from being hit by a lamp. The Weather Doctor's Diary

I remember both of these historical occurrences really well!  It's crazy they both occurred on the same date, 3 years apart!

 

1990 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed from the Southern and Central Plains to the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast, with afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s. Seventy-six cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Downtown Baltimore MD was the hot spot in the nation with a record high of 95 degrees, which smashed their previous record for the date by nineteen degrees. Other record highs included 89 degrees at Washington D.C. and 90 degrees at Raleigh NC. (The National Weather Summary)

 

1993: An incredible blizzard known as "The Superstorm" struck the eastern United States on this date through the 15th. The storm was described as the most costly non-tropical storm ever to hit the U.S., doing an estimated $6 billion in damage. The storm was as strong as a hurricane regarding winds and low pressure. The pressure dropped to an incredible 28.35 inches of mercury or 960 millibars when then the storm was located over the Chesapeake Bay. Boston, Massachusetts, recorded a wind gust to 81 mph, the most substantial wind they had recorded since Hurricane Edna in 1954. Also, as the storm was intensifying over the Gulf of Mexico, a wind gust to 99 mph was recorded by an offshore oil rig. It dumped incredible amounts of snow from Alabama to New England. The snow amounts were significant everywhere, but for places like Birmingham, Alabama, the 17 inches recorded brought the city to a standstill for three days. Mount Leconte, North Carolina, recorded 60 inches of snow. Practically every weather station in West Virginia established a new 24-hour snowfall record during the event. Syracuse, New York was buried under 43 inches of snow. The storm killed 220 people, and another 48 lost at sea. The storm also brought a 12-foot storm surge and 15 tornadoes to Florida, where 51 people were killed. Air travel was brought to a halt as every major airport from Atlanta north was closed during the height of the storm. During the late evening into the early morning hours of the 13th, a vicious squall line swept through Florida and spawned 11 tornadoes resulting in five fatalities. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 110 mph at Alligator Point and 109 mph at Dry Tortugas. Exceptionally high tides occurred along the western Florida coast. A 13-foot storm surge occurred in Taylor County, Florida, resulting in 10 deaths with 57 residences destroyed. A 5 to 8-foot storm surge moved ashore in Dixie County. Over 500 homes were destroyed, with major damage to another 700 structures. Click HERE for more information from the University of Illinois.

[LibertyBell]

On 3/4/2024 at 6:04 PM, gravitylover said:

Cold without snow is a waste...

My parents grew up in Far Rockaway and Belle Harbor from the mid 40's until they went to O'side in 1970 with a short stint in Brooklyn in the late 60s. They talked about the whole neighborhood spending the night on the beach many times in the 50s. My mom went to the beach or her neighbors cabana and and my dad's house was a few up from the beach so they put mattresses out on the 2nd floor porches. Those same 2nd floor porches were where they'd watch the ocean come up the street during big storms a few times a year, was probably a few times in the decade but, ya know. 

wow that sounds like some amazing memories.  1944 and 1948 were extremely hot at JFK and so was 1953 and 1954 and 1955 from what I've read and of course 1966.  And they got to experience some amazing TCs too like the 1944 hurricane, Carol in 1954 and Donna in 1960!

And in 1947 they got the HECS of record for that period, the day after Christmas!  The original Boxing Day Blizzard!