SnoSki14 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 5 hours ago, Allsnow said: Next winter will be brutal down here. Should be better in NNE Who knows at this point. A high ACE Nina is actually a good winter signal here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 12 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, there have been many comments on the forum how this -PDO La Niña background state has been so much warmer especially during the winters than older -PDO La Niña years before 15-16. I think the record SST warming near Japan is going hand in hand with the warming in the MJO 4-7 areas. So both those features tend to promote an Aleutian ridge near the Dateline and a ridge near the Eastern US. Notice how even with such a strong El Niño this winter there was still that ridge south of the Aleutians instead of the much stronger Aleutian low typical for strong El Niños. Great post. There's been a lot of comments about the warmth in the last couple of winters being driven by the -PDO but I don't think so. Just a quick glance at the SST maps can tell you how atypical the current -PDO looks despite a deeply negative anomaly. I believe the period between 1998-2014 was the last time we had a true -PDO phase and it was quite reflective in the Pacific ssts. And we experienced several cold winters in that period especially from 2007-2015. Maybe a strong La Nina may shift those anomalies and also drive down Pacific SST's especially off the coast of Japan and in the WPAC. The warm Atlantic and +AMO don't help us either. A poleward Aleutian ridge if linked with Atlantic blocking can be beneficial for the east too. It may not be a super cold pattern as the EPO would be neutral, but it would be below normal overall. If I'm not mistaken, we saw that in December 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 12 hours ago, MJO812 said: AI is consistent Just more cold air we need I'm tracking this Yes!!! More rain!!! It’s over. Dead. Let it go. Try again in 9 months when it’s December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Nice pocket of MUCAPE with the system tonight. So heavy thunderstorms could be in the mix. While not technically meeting the definition, possible W to NW sting jet-like event from Sunday into Monday. Very steep low level lapse rates coupled with the LLJ strengthening behind the upper low. I would say we could see 24 hours or more of continuous gusts 45-50 mph in most locations. But there exists the potential for some 60 mph + gusts in spots which could include the higher elevations. So the wind chill factor will make it feel more like late winter rather than early spring. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Would think we see some wind advisories later today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: Yes!!! More rain!!! It’s over. Dead. Let it go. Try again in 9 months when it’s December Not sure what he's looking at. Canada is torched and the GFS is a torch outside of a day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Not sure what he's looking at. Canada is torched and the GFS is a torch outside of a day. Assuming the Al is even correct, you won’t see snow outside of interior, elevated northern New England. It’s not even remotely cold enough here. Late March, spring climo FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Assuming the Al is even correct, you won’t see snow outside of interior, elevated northern New England. It’s not even remotely cold enough here. Late March, spring climo FTW AI took away the storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: AI took away the storm I knew as soon as I saw JB hyping it, it was doomed. The guy is the kiss of death 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Waiting for the rain: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: I knew as soon as I saw JB hyping it, it was doomed. The guy is the kiss of death He's been terrible the last few years but this year is a new low....he just refuses to give up-part of which I get-he needs to keep people interested but this year is a dog similar to 01-02 and 11-12 if you look at it from a nationwide point of view. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: He's been terrible the last few years but this year is a new low....he just refuses to give up-part of which I get-he needs to keep people interested but this year is a dog similar to 01-02 and 11-12 if you look at it from a nationwide point of view. Early on, it was clear that he was going against the guidance when he called for a Modoki El Niño. No guidance showed a Modoki event. From last year: Forecast assumptions should be evidence-informed. Relying on evidence provides no guarantee of success given the limitations of long range guidance, but it gives one a better chance at verification. At the same time, one should have the courage to adjust the forecast when developments warrant adjustment rather than doubling down on one’s ideas. Further, one should avoid confirmation bias from only choosing guidance that agrees with one’s thinking, especially when such guidance is an outlier. Finally, the climate context matters. The shift in SSTAs, impact of ongoing marine heatwaves, smaller pool of deep cold, etc., render past analogs irrelevant unless they are adjusted. In the end, the winter guidance was very accurate for North America. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Early on, it was clear that he was going against the guidance when he called for a Modoki El Niño. No guidance showed a Modoki event. From last year: Forecast assumptions should be evidence-informed. Relying on evidence provides no guarantee of success given the limitations of long range guidance, but it gives one a better chance at verification. At the same time, one should have the courage to adjust the forecast when developments warrant adjustment rather than doubling down on one’s ideas. Further, one should avoid confirmation bias from only choosing guidance that agrees with one’s thinking, especially when such guidance is an outlier. Finally, the climate context matters. The shift in SSTAs, impact of ongoing marine heatwaves, smaller pool of deep cold, etc., render past analogs irrelevant unless they are adjusted. In the end, the winter guidance was very accurate for North America. Not only was he forecasting a Modoki Nino and using 57-58, 65-66, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs, he also said 76-77, 77-78 and 14-15 were analogs in the fall. Completely ludicrous and blatant wishcasting. Nothing, not one thing pointed to that at any point. It was delusional to suggest otherwise. He went completely off the rails AGAIN and simply found the coldest and snowiest El Niño/borderline El Niño winters for the east coast and said they were great analogs. In doing so he completely lost what very minimal credibility he still had left and made himself look like a total fool just to appease his east coast weenie base and get subscription money, likes, follows and retweets. It was utterly embarrassing but I don’t think he cared one bit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Not only was he forecasting a Modoki Nino and using 57-58, 65-66, 02-03 and 09-10 as his analogs, he also said 76-77, 77-78 and 14-15 were analogs in the fall. Completely ludicrous and blatant wishcasting. Nothing, not one thing pointed to that at any point. It was delusional to suggest otherwise. He went completely off the rails AGAIN and simply found the coldest and snowiest El Niño/borderline El Niño winters for the east coast and said they were great analogs. In doing so he completely lost what very minimal credibility he still had left and made himself look like a total fool just to appease his east coast weenie base and get subscription money, likes, follows and retweets. It was utterly embarrassing but I don’t think he cared one bit and just about all of those had colder base states and colder ocean temps-none of that works in today's much warmer climate.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 It's nasty out. Windy 42 with heavy mist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 43 and mist here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Wow. Leaf out underway here in queens for many bushes. Much further ahead than Suffolk. Very surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 11 minutes ago, psv88 said: Wow. Leaf out underway here in queens for many bushes. Much further ahead than Suffolk. Very surprised Not surprising. They don’t cool down much compared to suburbs. Trees outside my office in Great Neck have open buds already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Euro isn't far off from a big storm. JB is still on board. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 40 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro isn't far off from a big storm. JB is still on board. It’s 10 days out, you never know. A broken clock is right twice a day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Wow. Leaf out underway here in queens for many bushes. Much further ahead than Suffolk. Very surprised I saw this happening on the side of the road in Middle Island today and thought I was imagining things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 42 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: It’s 10 days out, you never know. A broken clock is right twice a day. a big storm yes, but it will be all rain for this forum. Story of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Wow. Leaf out underway here in queens for many bushes. Much further ahead than Suffolk. Very surprised It will suck if we get a frost or freeze when everything is out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: It will suck if we get a frost or freeze when everything is out... Most likely that is what will happen unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Rain, some of which will fall heavily, will continue into tomorrow morning. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely by the time the storm ends. Coastal flooding is likely at times of high tide. Winds could gust past 40 mph during the storm. A period of drier weather will follow the storm's departure. After a brisk days tomorrow and Monday, it will turn noticeably milder. The warmth will peak on Thursday and Friday with the temperature rising into the lower and middle 60s in the New York City area and lower and middle 70s from Philadelphia and southward. The generally mild conditions will persist through mid-month. Afterward, there is growing consensus on the guidance that a deep trough could develop. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no Arctic air masses are likely. As a result, any cold will likely not be severe for the season and the potential exists for it to last one to perhaps two weeks, much as occurred in February. Any sharper cold shots will likely have a short duration. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 15th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has increased. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around February 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +5.26 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.831 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (3.2° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Getting some pretty big gusts out here tonight, surprised there is no advisory in effect 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Just now, Intensewind002 said: Getting some pretty big gusts out here tonight, surprised there is no advisory in effect Yes wind strong from the SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 45mph gusts at JFK and FRG. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Just had a gust to 40mph here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Gusts as high as 46mph at ISP and 50mph at JFK so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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