March 2024

[NEG NAO]

20 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I was just taking a look at climo for NYC and combined 2 season snowfall total isn't even 10" 

Not representative of the NYC metro area at all . Areas to the southwest across north and central NJ have measured 18 - 24 inches this season. And most other areas in the metro have reached past 10 inches..........

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Not representative of the NYC metro area at all . Areas to the southwest across north and central NJ have measured 18 - 24 inches this season. And most other areas in the metro have reached past 10 inches..........

While LGA didn’t have the undermeasurement issues since they use professional contract observers, this was still the lowest 2 year snowfall on record for LGA. A 2 year average of only 7.0 and total of 13.9 was a new record low. Combined with consecutive winters above 40° this  was officially the least winter-like 2 year period on record.
 

 

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Missing Count
1	1972-1973	1.9	0
2	2022-2023	3.4	0
-	2001-2002	3.4	0
3	1941-1942	3.6	0
4	2019-2020	4.6	0
5	2011-2012	5.1	0
6	1997-1998	7.1	0
7	1979-1980	10.3	0
8	2023-2024	10.5	208
9	1988-1989	10.8	0
10	2007-2008	11.2	0
-	1996-1997	11.2	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001-2002	41.9	0
2	2015-2016	41.6	0
3	2022-2023	40.9	0
-	2016-2017	40.9	0
4	2011-2012	40.7	0
5	2023-2024	40.3	0

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While LGA didn’t have the under measurement issues since they use professional contract observers, this was still the lowest 2 year snowfall on record for LGA. A 2 year average of only 7.0 and total of 13.9 was a new record low.
 

IMO any airport is not an ideal environment for measuring snowfall or temperature - as for temperature why does Newark always come in much warmer especially in the summer with some of its readings ?

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO any airport is not an ideal environment for measuring snowfall or temperature - as for temperature why does Newark always come in much warmer especially in the summer with some of its readings ?

Airports are just as good if not better for measuring snowfall and temperatures than the neighborhoods that are nearby. The actual ASOS is away from the concrete on grassy strips like a backyard in the adjacent neighborhoods. Those local neighborhoods also have streets and driveways which are also made of concrete. We could make the case that our local airports probably aren’t the warmest spots in our area since they are located very close to the water which are subject to cooling sea breezes during the summer. There are places more inland of Newark with more 90° days. Newark only ranks 4th  in 90° days since 2010 due to the breezes off the bay since the ASOS is right on the water.

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	465
HARRISON	COOP	459
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	453
Newark Area	ThreadEx	439
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	439
CANOE BROOK	COOP	438
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	414
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	414

 

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Airports are just as good if not better for measuring snowfall and temperatures than the neighborhoods that are nearby. The actual ASOS is away from the concrete on grassy strips like a backyard in the adjacent neighborhoods. Those local neighborhoods also have streets and driveways which are also made of concrete. We could make the case that our local airports probably aren’t the warmest spots in our area since they are located very close to the water which are subject to cooling sea breezes during the summer. There are places more inland of Newark with more 90° days. Newark only ranks 4th  in 90° days since 2010 due to the breezes off the bay since the ASOS is right on the water.

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2022
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W	COOP	465
HARRISON	COOP	459
FREEHOLD-MARLBORO	COOP	453
Newark Area	ThreadEx	439
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	439
CANOE BROOK	COOP	438
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	414
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	414

 

If Central Park can’t get its act together with measuring snow, official measurements for NYC should be moved to LGA. It’s about centrally located in the 5 boroughs, not far from Manhattan. 

[dmillz25]

Central Park: 7.5”

Bed Stuy Brooklyn: 15.3”

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Central Park: 7.5”

Bed Stuy Brooklyn: 15.3”

Same here in Dyker Heights

14 inches

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO any airport is not an ideal environment for measuring snowfall or temperature - as for temperature why does Newark always come in much warmer especially in the summer with some of its readings ?

Newark is a heat island area.  While the airport not as much you would think, as it is away from the city, the blacktop and lack of trees do add to the warmth, even though the wether station is in a grassy area. 

[winterwx21]

We might actually get 6 dry days after Saturday's storm. Boy do we need a dry stretch. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Not representative of the NYC metro area at all . Areas to the southwest across north and central NJ have measured 18 - 24 inches this season. And most other areas in the metro have reached past 10 inches..........

19 inches here. Not bad considering how warm this winter was. We were very lucky. 

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Same here in Dyker Heights

14 inches

Nice! You beat me dude, 11 on the season down here, very lucky to have had accumulating snow on a few different days. Feels like a victory for how intensely warm and overarchingly mild this winter was though. Very happy that first Jan storm did a number on the northern Metro and that last Feb event deathbanded CNJ. Made an otherwise poor winter tolerable for many I’m sure. 

[the_other_guy]

I was just barbecuing for lunch. with the wind and the cloud cover and the temperature, I swear if you closed my eyes and spun me in a circle it felt like a shitty memorial day.

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I was just barbecuing for lunch. with the wind and the cloud cover and the temperature, I swear if you closed my eyes and spun me in a circle it felt like a shitty memorial day.

What's amazing is we have gusty N winds and temps are in the mid 50's LOLZ

[the_other_guy]

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

Not representative of the NYC metro area at all . Areas to the southwest across north and central NJ have measured 18 - 24 inches this season. And most other areas in the metro have reached past 10 inches..........

actually, I think it’s very representative.

If you want to haggle over an inch or two in Central Park, that’s fine. that little 30 mile swath just north of 195 is what’s not representative of the metro area this winter.

 

The metro area is literally melting from record warmth, record number of lack of freezing temperatures, and record low snowfall.

I can’t remember the last time I drove down to Queens to shovel my parents sidewalk. what was an annual occurrence or multi times throughout the year, it hasn’t happened in years. 
 

Maybe that pre-Christmas storm a few years back. 

 

I live north of the city, and I have palm annuals still going. Simply amazing. i’ve never seen anything like it and per our record book nobody else has either.

Central New Jersey between 195 and 78 for a few hours in one storm aside, we are in big, big trouble here.

 

 

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

IMO any airport is not an ideal environment for measuring snowfall or temperature - as for temperature why does Newark always come in much warmer especially in the summer with some of its readings ?

Damn, Forky just predicted a record number of EWR is running too high this summer the other day. And it’s already started. Best prediction yet.

[Intensewind002]

Picked up a final total of 2.14” in Lindenhurst, today isn’t too bad out, I guess, despite the wind and greyness.

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Damn, Forky just predicted a record number of EWR is running too high this summer the other day. And it’s already started. Best prediction yet.

it comes in hot because it’s low lying, swampy, industrialized land that is covered in cement and machinery, as far as I could see.

It was shit hole land that nobody wanted. That’s why an airport was made there 70 years ago.

if you had a kid, and they tried to set up a hot wheels, micro machine, matchbox, Thomas the train set up on a fixed size table, and every piece of that playset was put out: tanks, highways, bridges, tunnels, Seaport, airport, train lines, buildings, factories, stores, radio towers and an old church or two, that is what EWR looks like on short final approach.

 

That’s why it’s always hotter than everywhere else. There’s not a blade of grass or a tree or an open space or a hill for miles in any direction.

 

[dWave]

15 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

You could plant begonias.

How is CPK doing with number of days below freezing? Has to be lowest ever. I wonder if it even happens again.

Earliest last freeze possible?

 

Just Epic how many records broken this winter!

I saw a lanternfly on Sunday, which I thought was way to early. It wasn't the little baby ones either. 40 degree winters will do that I guess. There's little sustained freezing temps, at least in urban areas. Back to back winters too.

[Santa Claus]

29 minutes ago, dWave said:

I saw a lanternfly on Sunday, which I thought was way to early. It wasn't the little baby ones either. 40 degree winters will do that I guess. There's little sustained freezing temps, at least in urban areas. Back to back winters too.

bro what.  no way

[STORMANLI]

2.46"

[donsutherland1]

Drier air moved into the region today in the wake of yesterday's soaking, but the clouds lingered throughout much of the day. Tomorrow will feature abundant sunshine and pleasantly mild readings in the 50s.

However, the respite from rainfall will be brief. Another storm will likely bring rain to the region during the weekend. The potential exists for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall. A period of drier weather should follow.

An extended period of warmer than normal weather continues. The generally mild conditions could persist through mid-month. Afterward, there is emerging consensus on the guidance that a deep trough could develop. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no Arctic air masses are likely. As a result, any cold will likely not be severe for the season and the potential exists for it to be fairly short-lived (1 to perhaps 2 weeks in duration), much as occurred in February.

No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 10th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has increased. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around February 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was -7.71 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.578 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.0° (3.2° above normal).

 

[TJW014]

So, I had planned snowshoeing Balsam Lake Mountain in the Catskills on Monday morning... This should be fun...

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

So, I had planned snowshoeing Balsam Lake Mountain in the Catskills on Monday morning... This should be fun...

Just awful this year for winter sports

[MANDA]

Thought this was interesting.  La Nina seems to be coming on rather quickly as the Nino collapses.  Will be interesting to watch this over the next weeks and months.  That is some rapid cooling over a very short period of time.  Latest EURO suggesting quite a busy Atlantic hurricane season.

Possible naming frenzy but impacts to be be determined.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Thought this was interesting.  La Nina seems to be coming on rather quickly as the Nino collapses.  Will be interesting to watch this over the next weeks and months.  That is some rapid cooling over a very short period of time.  Latest EURO suggesting quite a busy Atlantic hurricane season.

Possible naming frenzy but impacts to be be determined.

Yay Perma-Nina. The Nina hangover pattern never really went away this winter from the last one, we have a very -PDO and boiling equatorial WPAC, and now we have an official probably mod-strong Nina for next winter. Hopefully we get a high ACE and it’s an East based Nina or we’re in big trouble next winter too. 

[gravitylover]

35 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

So, I had planned snowshoeing Balsam Lake Mountain in the Catskills on Monday morning... This should be fun...

Bring the snowshoes anyway, you might need them to get through the muddy sections.

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yay Perma-Nina.

 

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yay Perma-Nina. The Nina hangover pattern never really went away this winter from the last one, we have a very -PDO and boiling equatorial WPAC, and now we have an official probably mod-strong Nina for next winter. Hopefully we get a high ACE and it’s an East based Nina or we’re in big trouble next winter too. 

I've seen 98-99 as a possible analog...yuck

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I've seen 98-99 as a possible analog...yuck

Don’t think we can dispute the pendulum is slamming back the other direction after our big snow 2000-18 period. Until the Pacific meaningfully changes out of this crap SST orientation the odds are strongly against us. 

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yay Perma-Nina. The Nina hangover pattern never really went away this winter from the last one, we have a very -PDO and boiling equatorial WPAC, and now we have an official probably mod-strong Nina for next winter. Hopefully we get a high ACE and it’s an East based Nina or we’re in big trouble next winter too. 

This is a much warmer version of the -PDO for us defined more by the record marine heatwave near Japan than the cold ring off of California. 
 

 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

This is a much warmer version of the -PDO for us defined more by the record marine heatwave near Japan than the cold ring off of California. 
 

 

Yep it’s crazy, and it must be driving these roaring Pacific Jet patterns that inundate us with warmth. In this era maybe the only way that changes is a competing marine heatwave somewhere else.