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March 2024


TriPol
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Nature tends to balance itself. For years we were dry and in a drought. That drought has ended and we have a surplus of rain, but little snow. Soon we will have a surplus of snow and we will have to wait until May for it all to finally melt.

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10 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Nature tends to balance itself. For years we were dry and in a drought. That drought has ended and we have a surplus of rain, but little snow. Soon we will have a surplus of snow and we will have to wait until May for it all to finally melt.

We haven’t been in a drought since the 60s?

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53 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

The saddest thing is that it’s only early March and yet there’s not even the opportunity to think “maybe this next storm could be snow,”. It might as well be June.  It’s like the very concept of snow has been memory-holed, a month earlier than usual.

You could plant begonias.

How is CPK doing with number of days below freezing? Has to be lowest ever. I wonder if it even happens again.

Earliest last freeze possible?

 

Just Epic how many records broken this winter!

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1 hour ago, Intensewind002 said:

Looks like another plume of heavy rain about to move through too, probably add another half an inch or so to our totals

Yep. Up to 1.80”. 

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9 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

You could plant begonias.

How is CPK doing with number of days below freezing? Has to be lowest ever. I wonder if it even happens again.

Earliest last freeze possible?

 

Just Epic how many records broken this winter!

Currently the lowest number of freezes by one day ahead of the previous record holder last winter. If NYC can hold onto 3-1 as the latest feeeze, it would be the 2nd earliest by a few days. 2020 was the last time NYC had a last freeze on March 1st.

2024-03-01 48 30 39.0 0.2

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Oct 1 to Apr 30
Missing Count
1 2024-04-30 36 55
2 2023-04-30 37 0
- 2012-04-30 37 0
3 2002-04-30 47 0
4 2020-04-30 48 0
- 2016-04-30 48 0
5 2017-04-30 49 0
- 1998-04-30 49 0


 

Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Last
Value
First
Value
Season Length
1942 02-28 (1942) 29 11-13 (1942) 31 257
2020 03-01 (2020) 25 10-31 (2020) 32 243
1962 03-09 (1962) 32 11-07 (1962) 31 242
1945 03-11 (1945) 32 11-21 (1945) 31 254
1953 03-11 (1953) 21 11-06 (1953) 30 239
1946 03-12 (1946) 28 11-23 (1946) 31 255
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16 hours ago, bluewave said:

It’s good to see AI versions of these models coming out. The hope is that they can correct the day 11-15 cold bias of all the major models. It will be interesting to see if AI can be used to correct  the long range tendency for models to underestimate the warmer MJO forcing. That’s a big part of why the week 2 and beyond forecasts have been up to 5° too cold in spots going back to late November.  

A62AC4F0-CDF6-4D3B-9ECA-EC55DF7A1BC3.png.76d5ae8e1d8800ba5afc1af6e695fa94.png

5B350FD5-51B5-4300-A6B8-3513F6810E58.png.990cdf8b70a52545774b02fe39e369dc.png

A59E9062-214D-4CB1-BCEB-842ABBCAD420.png.04d92df137407db243c0106cf9cf6725.png

 

@bluewave  Nice model bias charts!  Can you please provide the link for them?  Thanks.

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2.25" of rain yesterday (24 HR total). Nice to get a little bit of a break today and tomorrow, my backyard is a pond. One more round of rain Saturday, then a much needed dry out until the end of next week. 

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Could be some more beach erosion this weekend as the next storm coincides with the higher astronomical tides at the time of the new moon. But the period of onshore flow should be of shorter duration then some of the stronger recent erosion events. The offshore flow from Sunday into Monday should be more prolonged and stronger with gusts in excess of 50 mph possible as the low closes off near Maine. 
 

 

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Could be some more beach erosion this weekend as the next storm coincides with the higher astronomical tides at the time of the new moon. But the period of onshore flow should be of shorter duration then some of the stronger recent erosion events. The offshore flow from Sunday into Monday should be more prolonged and stronger with gusts in excess of 50 mph possible as the low closes off near Maine. 
 

 

Beaches have been f*cked up and down the east coast this past year. I regularly fish at Island Beach State Park, and we typically lose a little bit of beach in the winter and spring, but it builds back in the summer and fall. 

December and January were absolutely brutal. Some spots on the beach that typically are 50 yards wide, are now almost impassible at high tide. Sand is the softest I've ever seen it, and I've had to winch out stuck trucks and SUVs near constantly

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1 hour ago, TJW014 said:

Beaches have been f*cked up and down the east coast this past year. I regularly fish at Island Beach State Park, and we typically lose a little bit of beach in the winter and spring, but it builds back in the summer and fall. 

December and January were absolutely brutal. Some spots on the beach that typically are 50 yards wide, are now almost impassible at high tide. Sand is the softest I've ever seen it, and I've had to winch out stuck trucks and SUVs near constantly

This rough pattern for the beaches looks to continue right into the fall. Record Atlantic SSTs plus a developing La Niña. So we could be looking at a high number of named storms and ACE. Even if the strongest landfall impacts are down around the SE and Gulf, the beaches aren’t ready for a big hurricane swell season. Closer landfalls would be even worse since many spots are in such bad shape. Not to mention the flooding from rainfall should high amounts of tropical moisture stream into our region like we saw a few summers ago.

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47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This rough pattern for the beaches looks to continue right into the fall. Record Atlantic SSTs plus a developing La Niña. So we could be looking at a high number of named storms and ACE. Even if the strongest landfall impacts are down around the SE and Gulf, the beaches aren’t ready for a big hurricane swell season. Closer landfalls would be even worse since many spots are in such bad shape. Not to mention the flooding from rainfall should high amounts of tropical moisture filter into our region like we saw a few summers ago.

Maybe it is my ignorance, but what is ACE?

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7 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Maybe it is my ignorance, but what is ACE?

It’s the accumulated cyclone energy. The early seasonal forecasts indicate we have a shot at 160+. But the predominant storm tracks will be the most important for the actual impacts. 
 

Accumulated Cyclone Energy - Atlantic hide
Season ACE TS HU MH Classification
1933 258.57 20 11 6 Extremely active
2005 245.3 28 15 7 Extremely active
1893 231.1475 12 10 5 Extremely active
1926 229.5575 11 8 6 Extremely active
1995 227.1025 19 11 5 Extremely active
2004 226.88 15 9 6 Extremely active
2017 224.8775 17 10 6 Extremely active
1950 211.2825 16 11 6 Extremely active
1961 188.9 12 8 5 Extremely active
1998 181.7675 14 10 3 Extremely active
1887 181.26 19 11 2 Extremely active
1878 180.85 12 10 2 Extremely active
2020 180.3725 30 14 7 Extremely active
2003 176.84 16 7 3 Extremely active
1999 176.5275 12 8 5 Extremely active
1932 169.6625 15 6 4 Extremely active
1996 166.1825 13 9 6 Extremely active
1886 166.165 12 10 4 Extremely active
1969 165.7375 18 12 3 Extremely active
2010 165.4825 19 12 5 Extremely active
1906 162.88 11 6 3 Extremely active
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