March 2024

[Volcanic Winter]

My wife and I are planning our Iceland trip next year, we’re going to go the day after Xmas through New Years. Celebrating 15 years together (crazy, we met very young for this day and age). Gonna plan out a few awesome winter hikes and really make the most of it, and being in Reykjavik around the holidays is magical. 

If winter won’t come to you, go to winter. IB4 front loaded Niña Boxing Day redux hitting as our plane takes off from EWR 

[BxEngine]

Visibility on the hudson roughly 73’. 

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You know things are bad (especially for the ski resorts) when these are the overnight obs from the top of Mt. Washington last night…

NW 39	60.00	Mostly Cloudy and Windy	BKN030 BKN100	37	36	38	36	93%	23	NA	NA	NA
06	05:53	NW 41	60.00	Mostly Cloudy and Windy	FEW030 BKN100	37	36			93%	23	NA	NA	NA
06	04:55	NW 41	60.00	Partly Cloudy and Windy	SCT120	37	36			93%	23	NA	NA	NA
06	03:58	N 44	0.06	Fog and Windy	VV001	36	36			100%	21	NA	NA	NA
06	02:57	N 46	0.06	Fog and Windy	VV001	37	37			100%	22	NA	NA	NA
06	01:57	N 46	0.06	Fog and Windy	VV001	37	37			100%	22	NA	NA	NA
06	00:47	N 36	0.06	Fog and Windy	VV002	37	37	39	37	100%	23	NA	NA	NA			0.40
05	23:56	NW 23	0.06	Light Rain Fog and Breezy	VV002	37	37			100%	26	NA	NA	NA

 

No cold air even on north winds--pathetic

[Stormlover74]

Lol at least this isn't snow

 

[Brian5671]

24 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

My wife and I are planning our Iceland trip next year, we’re going to go the day after Xmas through New Years. Celebrating 15 years together (crazy, we met very young for this day and age). Gonna plan out a few awesome winter hikes and really make the most of it, and being in Reykjavik around the holidays is magical. 

If winter won’t come to you, go to winter. IB4 front loaded Niña Boxing Day redux hitting as our plane takes off from EWR 

I was there early December a couple of years ago with some guys for all of our 50th b-days-was incredible

[bluewave]

Much above average temperatures continuing well into March. While it looks like the highest departures remain west, a 70° day or two can always sneak in with enough sun and SW flow. This may be something that pops up in the short term when the finer details are known. Models trying to show some closer to average temperatures in around 15 days. But the very warm Gulf Stream appears to be keeping the region from getting too cold even if more of a trough develops.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Lol at least this isn't snow

 

Radar looks good for us imo 

 

Not that we need more rain 

[forkyfork]

31 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Radar looks good for us imo 

 

Not that we need more rain 

now the hrrr is inching wetter

[Allsnow]

40 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

now the hrrr is inching wetter

Yup. Lots of moisture over Delmarva moving north. 

[MJO812]

49 and raining here

[forkyfork]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Lots of moisture over Delmarva moving north. 

always a last minute west risk with atlantic ridging like this

[The 4 Seasons]

I was just taking a look at climo for NYC and combined 2 season snowfall total isn't even 10" 

[bluewave]

Many stations from Newark to Boston had their lowest 2 year snowfall totals and averages on record. It’s a bit of a surprise this took so long to achieve with how warm the winters have been getting. Very little we can do when record warmth combines with a very hostile Pacific. Plus we did this with a La Niña last winter and El Niño this year. The SSWs and Atlantic blocking intervals this winter we’re no match for the warm MJO action. Same for the near record -AO in December 2022 and strong blocking pattern last March. The Pacific has just become to powerful a force in terms of flooding North America with warmth and producing unfavorable storm tracks. 
 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Heavy rain here

47

[snowman19]

Many stations from Newark to Boston had their lowest 2 year snowfall totals and averages on record. It’s a bit of a surprise this took so long to achieve with how warm the winters have been getting. Very little we can do when record warmth combines with a very hostile Pacific. Plus we did this with a La Niña last winter and El Niño this year. The SSWs and Atlantic blocking intervals this winter we’re no match for the warm MJO action. Same for the near record -AO in December 2022 and strong blocking pattern last March. The Pacific has just become to powerful a force in terms of flooding North America with warmth and producing unfavorable storm tracks. 
 

 
 

 

In an absolutely shocking development:

[Roger Smith]

I wonder what we would be saying if it were 1888 ... the calendar that year was running a day behind ours, so it was Tuesday, March 6. Weather map: 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=1888&maand=3&dag=6&uur=1800&var=1&map=2&model=noaa

NYC weather data for date: 

high 23 low 10, dry, (probably partly cloudy, NW wind 25-35)

The ground was likely bare and partly frozen, as it had snowed very little in Feb 1888 and was mild with rain at times. ... more recently, on weekend of 3rd-4th, it was in the low 40s and a small amount of rain fell, and on the previous day (5th), 0.3" snow with water content of .01" ...

Let's say there was modern technology including weather models and the internet. I can imagine a post like this:

Brr, that northwest wind is cutting today. Not as cold as late January but considering the sun angle it's very chilly. Nothing like '72 of course. But that was in the old climate. 

Well, the snow drought of late winter '88 continues after a relatively good start in January, this winter is now underperforming, but it looks to be turning even colder next week and models continue to advertise a good chance of a nor'easter around Sunday or Monday. You can see signs of that storm developing slowly over the deserts of the southwest in the Arizona territory. It's going to turn a bit milder on the weekend so the question is, would our snowstorm begin as rain and how long would that continue until the storm was deep enough to pull in very cold air that the models are showing to our west by late Saturday (10th)? 

Euro showing a very powerful low off Cape Cod by 06z 13th (Monday night) in the 28.60" (970) range. GFS is a bit further south and weaker. GEM still going with the rain to snow scenario and a coastal track, but still looks fairly good for here in second part of event. ICON is off the scale as usual, but you know those Westphalians. At this point I would say 10" and possibly a bit more, up to 20" outside the city. It should be fun, if it happens. Can't wait to see what the NAM says about it on Thursday.

------

(anyway, I could continue a daily post like this one, or if people get interested in "participating" as if in real time, we could start a Blizzard of 1888 in real time thread. Ideas? reactions? should silver be the currency?) 

(keep in mind, if you answer in kind, 1888 calendar one day off 2024, weekend is March 10-11). 

[MJO812]

Heavy rain here

47

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

In an absolutely shocking development:

 

 

 

 

It’s good to see AI versions of these models coming out. The hope is that they can correct the day 11-15 cold bias of all the major models. It will be interesting to see if AI can be used to correct  the long range tendency for models to underestimate the warmer MJO forcing. That’s a big part of why the week 2 and beyond forecasts have been up to 5° too cold in spots going back to late November.  

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s good to see AI versions of these models coming out. The hope is that they can correct the day 11-15 cold bias of all the major models. It will be interesting to see if AI can be used to correct  the long range tendency for models to underestimate the warmer MJO forcing. That’s a big part of why the week 2 and beyond forecasts have been up to 5° too cold in spots going back to late November.  

 

The severe cold and high latitude blocking bias the models have had since November has been mind blowing. Totally astonishing. Bust after bust after bust for the last 5 months in a row. Hard to believe actually. The busted digital snow fantasies in the long range have been equally as bad

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Long Island about to get smoked

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The severe cold and high latitude blocking bias the models have had since November has been mind blowing. Totally astonishing. Bust after bust after bust for the last 5 months in a row. Hard to believe actually. The busted digital snow fantasies in the long range have been equally as bad

My guess is that the long range model error is the inability of the models to resolve the MJO. So this introduces a significant cold bias. Convection keeps reloading in the warm phases. The stock El Niño seasonal default doesn’t normally include so much MJO 4-7 action. In the old days, the MJO was weak or inactive in these phases during stronger El Niño’s. So the record WPAC warm pool is competing with the typical El Niño warm pool. The long range models must not be able to give reliable long range forecasts  when there are other marine heatwaves competing with the El Niño. All forecasts beyond a week or two have been defaulting to the stock El Niño seasonal forecasts issued in November with that big Southeast El Nino trough which didn’t verify this winter. WPAC forcing promotes more of a ridge in these areas.

[donsutherland1]

A storm will dump a general 1"-2" of rain through tonight into early tomorrow. The rain could fall heavily at times creating ponding on roadways and possible flooding along streams. Locally higher rainfall amounts are possible. Yet another storm will likely bring rain to the region during the weekend.

An extended period of warmer than normal weather continues. The generally mild conditions could persist through mid-month. Afterward, there is emerging consensus on the guidance that a deep trough could develop. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no Arctic air masses are likely. As a result, any cold will likely not be severe for the season and the potential exists for it to be fairly short-lived, much as occurred in February.

No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 10th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has increased. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around February 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was -3.54 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.511 today.

 

[ag3]

Already have .94” in the rain gauge. 
 

[Allsnow]

8 hours ago, forkyfork said:

now the hrrr is inching wetter

 

8 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Lots of moisture over Delmarva moving north. 

 

[psv88]

Already up to 0.82 and pouring. Yay rain. 

[Intensewind002]

1.03 here after 1.20 earlier this week, roads have filled up in the low spots but nothing serious

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

 

 

1.10 here so far, but it's tapering off now (will add a little more later tonight). More heavy rain to the south and east, but you can see it's heading for Long Island. The models were correct to have the heavier amounts to the east, but still a good soaking here. About what was expected with a little over an inch. 

[psv88]

1.27 and still pouring. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Long Island about to get smoked

The saddest thing is that it’s only early March and yet there’s not even the opportunity to think “maybe this next storm could be snow,”. It might as well be June.  It’s like the very concept of snow has been memory-holed, a month earlier than usual.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Winters over isn’t it. No march snow