March 2024

[weathermedic]

1.32 inches so far at my station here in southern Brooklyn.

 

[donsutherland1]

Periods of rain will continue through the night. The rain will depart from the region from west to east tomorrow. Rainfall will total a general 0.50"-1.50".

Afterward, the sun could break out and the temperature will likely soar into the upper 50s and lower 60s in the New York City area. Middle 60s are likely from Washington, DC into southern New Jersey.

An extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal weather is now underway. March will likely see generally unseasonable warmth through the first 7-10 days of the month. The generally mild conditions could persist through mid-month.

As has often been the case in recent months, the most impressive warmth in absolute temperatures and relative to normal will likely occur north and west of New York City. New York City will likely finish the first week of the month with an anomaly near 10° above normal despite frequent wet weather.

No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 10th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City has increased.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.65°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was +4.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.091 today.

 

[lee59]

1.50 inches of rain here, now down to drizzle. Wind howling out of the SE, gusting over 30mph.

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, Fresh cold air said:

I hate the beach and never go except to see it after a snowstorm.  And I live 2 blocks from the beach lol!  I would take a snow day over a beach day any day!

but sun over rain any day unless it's a drought

 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

but sun over rain any day unless it's a drought

 

It’s almost impossible to sustain any long term drought here because of how many ways we can get heavy rain. And the average precip has been increasing significantly in the last few decades. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

It’s almost impossible to sustain any long term drought here because of how many ways we can get heavy rain. And the average precip has been increasing significantly in the last few decades. 

Yes, it's really becoming like the Gulf coast around here.  And a huge increase in nuisance bugs and allergies.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Fresh cold air said:

Disagree with this though.....I prefer overcast days over sunny ones even if there is no precip.  Puts a lid on temps in the summer and allows me to drive westbound in the early evenings without putting the sun visor down.  My visors have too many papers stuffed in them so I cant lower them anyway lol!

It's interesting because sunlight makes most people happier, because sunlight increases dopamine levels and makes everyone happier.  If I'm hot I simply turn on the a/c, grab a nice cold drink, etc.

The driving issue is understandable, but say between 10 AM and and 4 PM is ideal for sunlight.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 1.47" of rain for the day here. Current temp 48

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Periods of rain will continue through the night. The rain will depart from the region from west to east tomorrow. Rainfall will total a general 0.50"-1.50".

Afterward, the sun could break out and the temperature will likely soar into the upper 50s and lower 60s in the New York City area. Middle 60s are likely from Washington, DC into southern New Jersey.

An extended period of warmer to much warmer than normal weather is now underway. March will likely see generally unseasonable warmth through the first 7-10 days of the month. The generally mild conditions could persist through mid-month.

As has often been the case in recent months, the most impressive warmth in absolute temperatures and relative to normal will likely occur north and west of New York City. New York City will likely finish the first week of the month with an anomaly near 10° above normal despite frequent wet weather.

No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 10th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City has increased.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.65°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was +4.02 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.091 today.

 

Its obvious that NYC snowfall measurements are questionable at best and more likely flawed - they have known about this for a long time here is an article from 2015

NWS adjusts curiously low snowfall totals at Central Park (nymetroweather.com)

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Its obvious that NYC snowfall measurements are questionable at best and more likely flawed - they have known about this for a long time here is an article from 2015

NWS adjusts curiously low snowfall totals at Central Park (nymetroweather.com)

Yes. This has been an issue. It’s unfortunate. The same applies to the foliage around the ASOS.

[weathermedic]

Quite foggy outside. Wonder why NWS didn’t put out a dense fog advisory for parts of the area. Or did they?

[Stormlover74]

8 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Quite foggy outside. Wonder why NWS didn’t put out a dense fog advisory for parts of the area. Or did they?

Just a hazardous weather outlook for central nj

[psv88]

1.75” today 

[MJO812]

Snow threat gone on gfs

O well onto Spring 

[NEG NAO]

51 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Snow threat gone on gfs

O well onto Spring 

Not for the interior plus the CMC is now suggesting it

[forkyfork]

all rainfall reports were between 1-2"

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=OKX

[snowman19]

Not for the interior plus the CMC is now suggesting it

Tropical tidbits “snow” maps at 10:1 ratios. Incorrect clown maps. Severely, laughably overdone, it even says “includes sleet”. That’s not even remotely close to reality, but you do you

[Allsnow]

Weather looks awful after today. Rain chances every other day 

 

 

[IrishRob17]

6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

all rainfall reports were between 1-2"

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=OKX

*All rainfall reports that Upton included. Less than an inch up here on the northern frontier, .61" IMBY 

[bluewave]

55 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Weather looks awful after today. Rain chances every other day 

 

 

Warm and super amped up MJO facing off against the strong -AO due to the final or major SSW is a very rainy pattern in the early spring. So a raging Pacific Jet undercutting the -AO block. Another case in recent times of the Pacific overpowering the Atlantic. 
 

 

 

[snowman19]

Warm and super amped up MJO facing off against the strong -AO due to the final or major SSW is a very rainy pattern in the early spring. So a raging Pacific Jet undercutting the -AO block. Another case in recent times of the Pacific overpowering the Atlantic. 
 



 
 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Weather looks awful after today. Rain chances every other day 

At least it'll be mild 

I think we're going to see a very active spring & summer. 

Lots of tropical threats 

[SACRUS]

 

49 and partly cloudy. Nicest/warmest day of the next 10 and looking likely for 7 of those 10 to be cloudy and wet. Rain totals 3 + inches after the 1.5 that fell yesterday making the drier aFeb brief pause in the overall wet - much wetter pattern.  Enough sun today gets mid upper 60s.  Next dry day with sun looks to be Friday 3/8.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 66 (1991)
NYC: 65 (1991)
LGA: 65 (1967)


Lows:

EWR: 9 (1950)
NYC: 11 (2003)
LGA: 10 (1950)


Historical:

 

1896: The temperature in downtown San Francisco, California, fell to 33 degrees, which was the lowest ever for the city in March. 

1966 - A tornado hit Jackson, MS, killing 54 persons. (David Ludlum)

1980 - A coastal storm produced 25 inches of snow at Elizabeth City, NC, and 30 inches at Cape Hatteras NC. At Miami FL the mercury dipped to 32 degrees. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1983 - The last of a series of storms to strike the California coast finally came to an end. Waves fifteen to twenty feet high pounded the coast for two days, and in a four day period up to 18 inches of rain drenched the Los Angeles and Santa Barbara area. On the morning of the first, thunderstorms spawned two tornadoes which moved through the Los Angeles area. (Storm Data)

1987 - A storm brought heavy rain and gale force winds to Washington and Oregon. Quillayute WA received 2.67 inches of rain in 24 hours, and winds gusted to 60 mph at Astoria OR. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A small but intense low pressure system roared across west central Mississippi at 90 mph early in the morning. A tornado in southern Mississippi picked up an automobile, carried it 150 feet, and tossed it through the brick wall of an unoccupied retirement home. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Wintry weather prevailed from the southern Rockies to the Upper Great Lakes. Neguanee MI received 19 inches of snow, and up to 24 inches of snow blanketed Colorado. Blizzard conditions were reported in Minnesota. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - An upper level weather disturbance produced snow in the Colorado Rockies, with eight inches reported at Winter Park, and a storm moving off the Pacific Ocean began to spread rain and snow across the western U.S. March continued to start off like a lamb elsewhere around the country. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1991: A significant ice storm coated parts of central and northwestern New York State with up to two inches of ice. The damage totaled $375 million. It was the most costly natural disaster ever in the state up until that time. Nearly half a million people were without power at the height of the storm, and many would not see their power restored until the 16th.

2003 - It was a day of temperature extremes. Miami reached a high temperature of 90 degrees, the earliest observed 90 degree temperature since March 5, 1964. Meanwhile Marquette, MI, dropped to 30 degrees below zero, the lowest temperature ever recorded in the city in March.

 

2016:  A deadly severe weather event affected the Southeastern United States on March 3, 2019. Over 6 hours, 41 tornadoes touched down across portions of Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina. The strongest was an EF4 tornado that devastated rural communities from Beauregard, Alabama, through Smiths Station, Alabama, to Talbotton, Georgia, killing 23 people and injuring at least 100 others. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Birmingham, Alabama.

 

[donsutherland1]

Week ahead numbers: A very mild and wet week lies ahead.

[SACRUS]

 

Record highs in sight today should we stay clear enough:

Already to 51 here

[Brian5671]

Overnight runs very wet for the next week-CMC the wettest but others are very wet as well

[snowman19]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Overnight runs very wet for the next week-CMC the wettest but others are very wet as well

It’s been an epic deluge for our area from October till now with very few breaks in between

[WX-PA]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

At least it'll be mild 

I think we're going to see a very active spring & summer. 

Lots of tropical threats 

Moving into a La Nina in the late Spring is going to make for an active Hurricane season. Analogs for Summer are hot. And we will see where  we are next fall and the strength of the La Nina. But I do thing we are through with snow especially for coastal sections.

[NEG NAO]

9 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Moving into a La Nina in the late Spring is going to make for an active Hurricane season. Analogs for Summer are hot. And we will see where  we are next fall and the strength of the La Nina. But I do thing we are through with snow especially for coastal sections.

Active hurricane season does not mean the east coast will be active - long range forecasting is a risky proposition at best - example - all the busted 23-24 winter season outlooks...