Allsnow Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: even here 10 inches of rain and not even a T of snow... The warmer winters really starting to effect sne now. Boston hasn’t had a snowfall over 4 inches in 2 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 A generally dry weekend lies ahead, although a shower cannot be ruled out tomorrow night or early Sunday morning. Temperatures will top out in the upper 50s and perhaps lower 60s. It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.35°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is continuing to fade with the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly going negative for the first time since the week centered around January 25, 2023. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -11.97 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.636 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 48.0° (5.3° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: The warmer winters really starting to effect sne now. Boston hasn’t had a snowfall over 4 inches in 2 years Boston’s had a turn to bad luck since 2015 in general but the warmer conditions are teetering them over to sucky outcomes. If the storm last mid-March, 2/1/21 etc were 2-3 degrees colder, they’d be sitting on 25-30 more inches just from those 2 storms. The storms we had in mid Feb and our one widespread decent snow event 2/28/23 missed them to the south. The Jan 2016 blizzard just brushed them. I can’t see them ending below 10 inches this year, they’ll get some late snow event to get them over it. And I don’t think it takes a whole lot in this setup coming up for them to get slammed unlike us. Of course the 2-3 degrees too warm can happen and they get white rain again since they’d be relying on big dynamics to overcome onshore flow probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 7 hours ago, Roger Smith said: I would guess probably about 80-82 at location of JFK, if they could have taken the reading, it looks like a WSW flow which probably explains PVD getting to 90F. It had been very mild for weeks all over the country (and in southern Ontario) so there was probably no snow south of Lake Superior since early in the month. After a cold winter of 1944-45, the inferno was on in March. The original Morch if you will. Oftentimes following a cold winter, spring vegetation is late, but the green up was record early in 1945 and freezes in April and May pretty much destroyed most fruit crops in the midwest that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 7 hours ago, jm1220 said: Boston’s had a turn to bad luck since 2015 in general but the warmer conditions are teetering them over to sucky outcomes. If the storm last mid-March, 2/1/21 etc were 2-3 degrees colder, they’d be sitting on 25-30 more inches just from those 2 storms. The storms we had in mid Feb and our one widespread decent snow event 2/28/23 missed them to the south. The Jan 2016 blizzard just brushed them. I can’t see them ending below 10 inches this year, they’ll get some late snow event to get them over it. And I don’t think it takes a whole lot in this setup coming up for them to get slammed unlike us. Of course the 2-3 degrees too warm can happen and they get white rain again since they’d be relying on big dynamics to overcome onshore flow probably. I'm noticing the warmer ocean is really affecting Logan, while locations to the west and northwest of there have much higher snowfall totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 48, breezy and mostly sunny. Dry weekend but windy today and some clouds later. Dry and nice Easter - low 60s. Turning grey and wetter April 1 - April 9 with some - overall not a pleasant open. Moderates and warms after the 9th, perhaps a much warmer period 11-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Records: Highs: EWR: 86 (1998) NYC: 82 (1998) LGA: 79 (1998) JFK: 72 (1979) Lows: EWR: 22 (1970) NYC: 16 (1887) LGA: 23 (1970) JFK: 22 (1970) Historical: 1805: New York's City's Battery Park was strewn with 24-inch snow rollers, from a ferocious storm between the March 26th and March 28th. Snow rollers are natural snowballs that are formed when winds blow over a snow-covered surface. 1823 - A great Northeast storm with hurricane force winds raged from Pennsylvania to Maine. The storm was most severe over New Jersey with high tides, uprooted trees, and heavy snow inland. (David Ludlum) 1848: On six reported occasions, the water flow over the American Falls has been entirely blocked by ice and ceased to fall. But only once has this happened on the much larger Horseshoe Falls. 1899 - A storm which buried Ruby, CO, under 141 inches of snow came to an end. Ruby was an old abandoned mining town on the Elk Mountain Range in the Crested Butte area. (The Weather Channel) 1977 - Hartford, CT, hit 87 degrees to establish a record for the month of March. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A storm spread heavy snow across the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes Region. Cleveland OH received sixteen inches of snow in 24 hours, their second highest total of record. Winds gusting to 50 mph created 8 to 12 foot waves on Lake Huron. The storm also ushered unseasonably cold air into the south central and southeastern U.S., with nearly one hundred record lows reported in three days. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A winter-like storm developed in the Central Rockies. Snowfall totals in Utah ranged up to 15 inches at the Brian Head Ski Resort, and winds in Arizona gusted to 59 mph at Show Low. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing along and ahead of a slow moving cold front produced large hail and damaging winds at more than fifty locations across the southeast quarter of the nation, and spawned a tornado which injured eleven persons at Northhampton NC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Low pressure produced heavy snow in central Maine and northern New Hampshire, with up to eight inches reported in Maine. A slow moving Pacific storm system produced 18 to 36 inches of snow in the southwestern mountains of Colorado in three days. Heavier snowfall totals included 31 inches at Wolf Creek Pass and 27 inches at the Monarch Ski Area. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 6 hours ago, SACRUS said: 48, breezy and mostly sunny. Dry weekend but windy today and some clouds later. Dry and nice Easter - low 60s. Turning grey and wetter April 1 - April 9 with some - overall not a pleasant open. Moderates and warms after the 9th, perhaps a much warmer period 11-14. It's going to be cutting it close for the eclipse. I noticed the Euro is much cloudier for the entire path of totality (including up here in the NE) than the GFS is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Despite the brief cold shot and recent rains, nature continues to advance deeper into spring at the New York Botanical Garden. Not even the 3/30 12z GGEM has frightened nature into slowing down the unfurling of its blossoms. Four photos from today: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 A few showers are likely tonight into early tomorrow morning. Afterward, the clouds will give way to sunshine and temperatures will rise into the upper 50s and lower 60s. Some of the warmer spots could top out in the middle 60s. The week ahead looks to feature wet and unseasonably cool weather. Temperatures could be confined mainly to the 40s with occasional chilly rain. Central and upstate New York and central and northern New England could see accumulating snow. It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.35°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is continuing to fade with the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly going negative for the first time since the week centered around January 25, 2023. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -6.85 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.849 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 48.1° (5.4° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 13 hours ago, LibertyBell said: It's going to be cutting it close for the eclipse. I noticed the Euro is much cloudier for the entire path of totality (including up here in the NE) than the GFS is. If any of you remember the May 10, 1994 eclipse (my first solar eclipse experience ever) this is basically a carbon copy of that one, the only difference is that one was annular and this one is total. We were cloudy during that one too, but the clouds thinned out from time to time (the good thing about there being clouds was there was no need for eclipse glasses!) My memories of that eclipse: It was supposed to be raining and overcast all day but it stopped raining early and it stayed overcast, but because of the movement of the clouds, the clouds thinned out a little from time to time and it happened just in time for peak eclipse! Does this eclipse path for May 10, 1994 look familiar to you? And just like I remembered it, it reached peak eclipse here just after 1 PM (1:35 PM to be exact.) Looks like that one was 89% here just like this one will be (with that one you had to travel north to Albany to see annularity and for this one it's Syracuse for totality.) Is there a 30 year cycle for eclipses? It's amazing how wide a range this annular had, from Mexico to Texas to New York all the way across the Atlantic to Morocco and to Algeria! https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/solar/1994-may-10 This was back in May 1994 and here in New York the sun was about 90% covered and I was able to look at it through 10x50 binoculars without hurting my eyes because the cloud cover was rather dense at 1:30 in the afternoon and the sun was just barely visible through them as a small ring around a dark moon. I'll never forget that experience! I believe that was an annular eclipse but the annularity happened north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Happy Easter 50 and sunny ,becoming partly cloudy or perhaps mostly cloudy. Low 60s. April 1 - 9 wet/cool - cold. Moderating on the 9th warming in the 10 - 13 period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Records: Highs: EWR: 85 (1998) NYC: 86 (1998) LGA: 82 (1998) Lows: EWR: 22 (1964) NYC: 14 (1923) LGA: 24 (1964) Historical: 1890 - Saint Louis, MO, received 20 inches of snow in 24 hours. It was the worst snowstorm of record for the St Louis. (David Ludlum) 1942: 107 inches of rain fell during the month at Puu Kukui at Maui, Hawaii to set the U.S. record for rainfall in one month. The same place also holds the annual rainfall record for the United States with 578 inches in 1950. 1954 - The temperature at Rio Grande City, TX, hit 108 degrees, which for thirty years was a U.S. record for the month of March. (The Weather Channel) 1962 - A tornado struck the town of Milton, FL, killing 17 persons and injuring 100 others. It was the worst tornado disaster in Florida history. (David Ludlum) 1973 - A devastating tornado took a nearly continuous 75 mile path through north central Georgia causing more than 113 million dollars damage, the highest total of record for a natural disaster in the state. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - March went out like a lion in the northeastern U.S. A slow moving storm produced heavy snow in the Lower Great Lakes Region, and heavy rain in New England. Heavy rain and melting snow caused catastrophic flooding along rivers and streams in Maine and New Hampshire. Strong southerly winds ahead of the storm gusted to 62 mph at New York City, and reached 87 mph at Milton MA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - March went out like a lion in eastern Colorado. A winter-like storm produced 42 inches of snow at Lake Isabel, including 20 inches in six hours. Fort Collins reported 15 inches of snow in 24 hours. Winds gusted to 80 mph at Centerville UT. Albuquerque NM received 14 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced severe weather from North Carolina to Pennsylvania. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 76 mph at Cape Henry VA. While squalls blanketed northwest Pennsylvania with up to 9 inches of snow, thunderstorms in eastern Pennsylvania produced golf ball size hail at Avondale. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - The month of March went out just as it came in, like a lamb. Marquette MI, which started the month with a record high of 52 degrees, equalled their record for the date with a reading of 62 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 2010 - Jacksonville, Florida's, record streak of days with high temperatures below 80 degrees comes to an end at 105 days. It was also Jacksonville's first 80 degree reading of the year. The previous latest first 80 degree day was on March 14, 1978. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Daylight : 12H:40M roughly equivalent to Sep 11th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s2sailorlis Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 almost a foot precipitation for the month...yikes. Fairfield, CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 3 hours ago, SACRUS said: Daylight : 12H:40M roughly equivalent to Sep 11th Hey Tony, with last night's downpour did either LGA or JFK make it to 10.00" of rain for March? I know NYC couldn't have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Hey Tony, with last night's downpour did either LGA or JFK make it to 10.00" of rain for March? I know NYC couldn't have. No. None of them reached 10.00". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 10.71" precipitation in North Smithtown for March. This is our wettest month, eclipsing the 10.23" from this December. Kind of a wet winter (6.49" in January, a dry-ish 2.43" in February). 12 month rainfall (4/1/23 - 3/31/24) is 61.79" ! Note: I've only been tracking rainfall here since 1/1/2013 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 9.01” is my monthly total for March here in Lindenhurst, hopefully as we move deeper into april a drier pattern emerges. Happy Easter everyone! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Hey Tony, with last night's downpour did either LGA or JFK make it to 10.00" of rain for March? I know NYC couldn't have. Last nights downpour was 0.04" here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Last nights downpour was 0.04" here. It's funny, I heard it rain hard for maybe 10 minutes, and then everything went silent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: No. None of them reached 10.00". too bad, I guess that storm that trended further east at the end was what prevented it from happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 11.61” of rain in western Suffolk this month. Beautiful 60 now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 11 minutes ago, psv88 said: 11.61” of rain in western Suffolk this month. Beautiful 60 now. picture perfect day and the birds have been singing all day long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Hey Tony, with last night's downpour did either LGA or JFK make it to 10.00" of rain for March? I know NYC couldn't have. JFK: 9.87 LGA: 9.62 EWR: 7.99 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 minutes ago, SACRUS said: JFK: 9.87 LGA: 9.62 EWR: 7.99 Thanks, were any of those monthly records, Tony? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 March was the 8th warmest month on record in New York City. Just over 4 out of every 5 days saw above normal temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 March 2024 finished with a mean temperature of 48.1° in New York City. That ranked as the 8th warmest March on record. The 9.04" of precipitation ranked as the 4th highest on record. 2010 and 2024 are the only two years to rank in the Top 10 for both categories in March. In addition, with an average temperature of 42.5°, December 1, 2023 - March 31, 2024 was the 3rd warmest December-March period on record. All of the 6 warmest December-March periods have occurred since 2000. Five of them have occurred since 2010: 2011-2012 (1st), 2015-2016 (2nd), 2019-2020 (6th), 2022-2023 (4th), and 2023-2024 (3rd). This outcome is consistent with climate change that is producing ongoing warming. Specifically, periods of rain will develop overnight and continue tomorrow. Temperatures will likely top out in the lower 50s. Tuesday through Thursday will see additional rainfall with highs in the 40s. Central and upstate New York and central and northern New England could see accumulating snow during the week. The precipitation will add to the impressive totals that have accumulated since January 1st. January 1-March 31 precipitation includes: Albany: 11.89" (4th highest) Allentown: 13.79" (8th highest) Atlantic City: 18.22" (1st highest) Bangor: 13.41" (6th highest) Binghamton: 10.98" (3rd highest) Boston: 17.23" (8th highest) Bridgeport: 18.30" (2nd highest) Concord: 15.04" (6th highest) Hartford: 18.23" (2nd highest) Islip: 19.23" (4th highest) Manchester: 14.41" (9th highest) Mount Pocono: 18.08" (3rd highest) New York City-Central Park: 16.37" (4th highest) New York City-JFK Airport: 17.40" (1st highest) New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 17.29" (1st highest) Newark: 15.26" (7th highest) Philadelphia: 14.59" (7th highest) Portland: 19.59" (Tied 4th highest) Poughkeepsie: 12.72" (7th highest) Providence: 23.85" (2nd highest) Trenton: 15.20" (7th highest) White Plains: 16.20" (3rd highest) Wilmington, DE: 15.22" (5th highest) Worcester: 18.10" (3rd highest) It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around March 20. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.35°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is continuing to fade with the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly going negative for the first time since the week centered around January 25, 2023. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -10.29 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.419 today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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