LibertyBell Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 12 minutes ago, batmansascientist said: For only the 6th time since records were being kept, Central Park will finish in top 10 for both monthly temperature and monthly precipitation in the same month. Previous times: * January 1937 (8th Temp: 40.2, 10th Prec: 5.97") * November 2006 (8th Temp: 51.9, 9th Prec: 7.34") * March 2010 (6th Temp: 48.2, 1st Prec: 10.69") * April 2023 (2nd Temp: 57.6, 6th Prec: 7.70") * December 2023 (2nd Temp: 44.6, 9th Prec: 6.66" ) * March 2024 (9th/10th Temp - TBD, Currently 5th for all of March Prch: Currently: 8.24") I don't know if this falls under coincidence or trend, but 6 times in 150 years, followed by it happening 3x in 12 months is really astounding. - Over 30% Of all top 10 temp months have occurred since 2010 (38/120) = Over 25% (28/108) of all months in the last 9 years (April 2015 - March 2024) are now one of the top 10 temperatures for it's respective month. can't blame it on el nino either since last year had a la nina. I didn't realize April 2023 was so wet-- I only remember the two day heatwave we had with the temperatures in the low 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 33 minutes ago, bluewave said: I am hoping the EPS idea of the pattern drying out during the eclipse week is correct. But a daily forecast that far out will always be low skill. ah so maybe that front and low the GFS had yesterday might move out quicker than anticipated and allow clearing by Monday the 8th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Parts of the area could go over 12.00 on the month with this event and a bunch over 10.00. Data for March 1, 2024 through March 27, 2024Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 10.93 CT SALEM 3.6 SE CoCoRaHS 10.83 NY HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.51 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 10.46 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.34 CT STRATFORD 0.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.23 NY DEER PARK 1.0 NE CoCoRaHS 10.18 CT FAIRFIELD 1.5 NE CoCoRaHS 10.12 CT NORWICH 5.2 SE CoCoRaHS 10.05 NY ST. JAMES COOP 9.93 CT GUILFORD CENTER 2.7 WSW CoCoRaHS 9.93 CT STRATFORD 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 9.90 NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 9.89 CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 9.83 NY NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.82 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 9.80 NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 9.79 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 9.76 CT GUILFORD COOP 9.63 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 9.63 NY MANHASSET HILLS 0.2 NNE CoCoRaHS 9.59 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 9.56 NY ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 9.52 NY MALVERNE 0.5 SE CoCoRaHS 9.46 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 9.34 CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.31 NY CENTERPORT COOP 9.29 CT MIDDLEFIELD 1.4 W CoCoRaHS 9.27 CT MYSTIC 3.4 NW CoCoRaHS 9.24 NY CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 9.22 CT KILLINGWORTH 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.21 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 9.20 NY SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 9.20 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 9.20 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 9.14 CT NORWALK 1.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 9.12 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 9.11 CT ESSEX VILLAGE 0.9 S CoCoRaHS 9.11 NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 9.10 Chris, what would JFK need to get to 10.0 and 12.0? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmansascientist Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: can't blame it on el nino either since last year had a la nina. I didn't realize April 2023 was so wet-- I only remember the two day heatwave we had with the temperatures in the low 90s. Rained 4.8" on the 29th and 30th. It's one of those things, it was all in big bunches and right at the end, so it was mostly a dry month (From April 1 - April 21 there were only 2 days of measurable rain and it totaled .4"). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nam is west with lots of rain for the area All day long too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 2 hours ago, bluewave said: It least some of the higher elevations were able to reach average snowfall with the recent storm. Did you notice that all that all the accumulating snow was well north of us? Even in this so-called colder pattern, the snow didn't even make it into Boston. It was in the upper midwest to northern new england. This is what shows me that March is truly a spring month. We can really only count on snow in January and February. Any other month is a coinflip, even in a colder pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: All day long too Ends early Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Just now, Stormlover74 said: All day long too I'm just going to say it before anyone else can lol. In January or February this could have been a 36 hour snowstorm. But for some reason in winter our storms move much more quickly and never last this long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Just now, Allsnow said: Ends early Friday morning Would have been a 36 hour snowstorm in winter. But in winter these storms always move faster than light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 2 minutes ago, batmansascientist said: Rained 4.8" on the 29th and 30th. It's one of those things, it was all in big bunches and right at the end, so it was mostly a dry month (From April 1 - April 21 there were only 2 days of measurable rain and it totaled .4"). Good point-- this is how you can get a very hot summer with lots of rain too-- 1983 and 2011 were great examples of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: BUST Yep no surprise that the models were wrong with that east trend that they had for a little while. Another super soaker tomorrow, ugh. I assume opening day for the Mets will be moved to Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 In the end go west you'll rarely be wrong 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 44 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Where was this in Janaury? 1) Only 19% of Januaries 1981-2023 had -NAO (sub -0.25). -NAOs were three times more frequent in Jan during 1955-80 (58%)! 2) This 19% of Jans with -NAO 1981-2023 contrasts with 35% of Aprils during the same years. 3) Actually though, the GEFS chart shows a forecasted -NAO in April similar to that of early to mid Jan. Jan 15-21 near the end of that -NAO was the coldest week of the winter along with two snows. NAO monthlies: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: 1) Only 19% of Januaries 1981-2023 had -NAO (sub -0.25). -NAOs were three times more frequent in Jan during 1955-80 (58%)! 2) This 19% of Jans with -NAO 1981-2023 contrasts to 35% of Aprils. 3) Actually though, the GEFS chart shows a forecasted -NAO in April similar to that of early to mid Jan. Jan 15-21 was the coldest week of the winter along with two snows. Check out May too, it's probably even higher than April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Check out May too, it's probably even higher than April. Indeed, 47% of Mays 1981-2023 had sub -0.25 NAO. Also, 47% of Junes and 44% of Julys. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: Indeed, 47% of Mays 1981-2023 had sub -0.25 NAO. Also, 47% of Junes and 44% of Julys. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table So, -NAO aren't becoming less common, they are only becoming less common in winter and early spring. Somewhere around 50% is what should be expected with how the index is constructed, so rather than assuming they are getting more common in late spring and summer, they are probably becoming less common in winter and early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 The NAM snow is fun to look at but won’t happen at least near the city. Maybe far northern areas in the hills. The RGEM 12z which hasn’t been sniffing glue went west a little also but no snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: So, -NAO aren't becoming less common, they are only becoming less common in winter and early spring. Somewhere around 50% is what should be expected with how the index is constructed, so rather than assuming they are getting more common in late spring and summer, they are probably becoming less common in winter and early spring. 1. Accommodating for calling -0.24 to +0.24 neutral, I estimate 42% of all months to be expected to be -NAO. 2. In addition to becoming much less common during winter since 1981, they actually have become more common in summer since 2007. @bluewave has posted about a theory that the increased frequency in summer is related to AGW/CC (I think related to increased melting of ice but not sure). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: In the end go west you'll rarely be wrong Not surprising given the continuing record WAR and SE Ridge patterns since the 15-16 super El Niño. Near to record 500mb heights for Canadian Maritimes 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Where was this in Janaury? On every run of the ECMWF weeklies in the extended range 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: On every run of the ECMWF weeklies in the extended range This is true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 54 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: In the end go west you'll rarely be wrong Models seem to tick E 48hrs prior then the next day, 24hrs in, move back W. Has been a common occurrence of late. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 40 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: On every run of the ECMWF weeklies in the extended range Hopefully the weeklies are banned next winter-the last 2-3 yrs they have shown the "big pattern" in the LR only to bust horribly. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Hopefully the weeklies are banned next winter-the last 2-3 yrs they have shown the "big pattern" in the LR only to bust horribly. I wish I had a dollar for every time they showed a +PNA/-EPO/-WPO/-AO/-NAO/50-50 Low pattern in the long range since 2016 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: 0.001% chance of that happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Just now, snowman19 said: 0.001% chance of that happening Yep 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 Huge batch of rain sw of phl will be moving in late this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: 0.001% chance of that happening Good give you credit where it’s due, you did good this winter. Congrats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 57 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Huge batch of rain sw of phl will be moving in late this afternoon Some thunderstorms earlier in that batch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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