March 2024

[SACRUS]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Extremely steep lapse rates and some CAPE should allow for gusts over 40 and small hail with the convection later today. 

 

 

 

Continue with our winds overperforming .  

[Brian5671]

23 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The 1979-1993 snow drought period isn’t even in the ballpark of being anywhere near comparable to the climate now. We actually had true arctic cold back then, the oceans weren’t completely torched, Canadian snowcover and arctic sea ice were normal to well above normal at times and the atmospheric circulations were completely different as were the solar cycles

Alot of +NAO and poor storm tracks doomed us in the 80's.   You'd have bitter cold and suppressed then a cutter to the lakes right after....

[JetsPens87]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The 1979-1993 snow drought period isn’t even in the ballpark of being anywhere near comparable to the climate now. We actually had true arctic cold back then, the oceans weren’t completely torched, Canadian snowcover and arctic sea ice were normal to well above normal at times and the atmospheric circulations were completely different as were the solar cycles

I'd venture quite a few of those years had either N or BN precipitation and the lack of snow may have been more a function of that.

It's more evident that the recent snow drought is a function of well AN temperatures.

I don't have the data to back this so it's just speculation but it's clear that the scorched earth is a huge implication in recent history.

[snowman19]

12 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

I'd venture quite a few of those years had either N or BN precipitation and the lack of snow may have been more a function of that.

It's more evident that the recent snow drought is a function of well AN temperatures.

I don't have the data to back this so it's just speculation but it's clear that the scorched earth is a huge implication in recent history.

A lot of that period had to do with the very strong -AMO cycle we were in which resulted in ++NAO winters as @bluewave just wrote

[MJO812]

Great pattern ahead to be in the midwest and Caribou.

So lucky 

[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Great pattern ahead to be in the midwest and Caribou.

So lucky 

MSP is well below average in snow so it’s much needed there as well as ME also well below average. They’re far enough north that they can do well in late March and April. Unless it’s a miracle season like 2018 we’re shut out this far south. And with the likely Nina next winter they’ll probably more than make up for this awful one. 

[Dark Star]

33 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A lot of that period had to do with the very strong -AMO cycle we were in which resulted in ++NAO winters as @bluewave just wrote

Much of the time we would be below normal to normal temperatures.  Then, we would get a cutter, warm up for the storm, and then cool back down.  Rinse, repeat...

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Much of the time we would be below normal to normal temperatures.  Then, we would get a cutter, warm up for the storm, and then cool back down.  Rinse, repeat...

I remember being too young to fully understand but it would be 10 or 15 degrees and I couldn't understand why the forecast was for rain the next morning...LOL

[Wxoutlooksblog]

54 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

I'd venture quite a few of those years had either N or BN precipitation and the lack of snow may have been more a function of that.

It's more evident that the recent snow drought is a function of well AN temperatures.

I don't have the data to back this so it's just speculation but it's clear that the scorched earth is a huge implication in recent history.

I think they are both valid points. There were more seasons with close to normal or below normal precipitation back then and the ocean temperatures were generally cooler. With climate change we are getting generally stronger storms with more moisture. 1979-1993 it was rare you'd see a model ever crank out 2.00" precip during an event. Now it's a regular thing.

WX/PT

[NCPOW]

What are the expected precip chances and totals today? I’m hoping to get some pre emergent on the lawn before a possible washout this weekend. 

[Brian5671]

18 minutes ago, NCPOW said:

What are the expected precip chances and totals today? I’m hoping to get some pre emergent on the lawn before a possible washout this weekend. 

I think it's a bit early for pre-emergent-I'd wait another week.   But on your question we're looking at light amounts maybe .10 or .20

-

[NCPOW]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I think it's a bit early for pre-emergent-I'd wait another week.   But on your question we're looking at light amounts maybe .10 or .20

-

Yeah it may be a little early. Soil temps hit 55 last week, but are back down to 45. They will probably drop in the next few days before going back up next week. I don’t have my sprinklers set up yet, so I’m trying to time the application with the rain. I’d rather be a little early than late not knowing the rain chances next weekend and beyond. But also don’t want the application to get washed out this weekend.

[Allsnow]

20’s Friday morning? 

2-4 of rain Saturday? 

 

Ewwww

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, NCPOW said:

What are the expected precip chances and totals today? I’m hoping to get some pre emergent on the lawn before a possible washout this weekend. 

 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

I think it's a bit early for pre-emergent-I'd wait another week.   But on your question we're looking at light amounts maybe .10 or .20

-

If you do apply this early you'll need another application to cover you for the entire growing season. 39 and drizzle here, blah and 20s are a lock up here in he coming days. 

[Brian5671]

35 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

20’s Friday morning? 

2-4 of rain Saturday? 

 

Ewwww

GFS CMC and EURO are all similar

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

20’s Friday morning? 

2-4 of rain Saturday? 

 

Ewwww

Yet another deluge on Saturday. Like we need it

[Tatamy]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Extremely steep lapse rates and some CAPE should allow for gusts over 40 and small hail with the convection later today. 

 

Real variable weather around today.  I had rain mixed with snow this morning however with temps up into the 40s just some rain showers now.  Up in the Poconos this afternoon near MPO there have been snow squalls with a fresh inch of snow on the ground currently.  You have to be up over 1600’ to see that.

[jm1220]

 at some of the model trends for this weekend. Good thing the rain’s desperately needed and there’s plenty of sand left to be eroded on the beaches! 

[bluewave]

59 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

 at some of the model trends for this weekend. Good thing the rain’s desperately needed and there’s plenty of sand left to be eroded on the beaches! 

NYC is on track to make it to the top 10 wettest Marches. Some really hot summers followed years with this much March precipitation. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Mar
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	2010	10.69	0
2	1983	10.54	0
3	1980	10.41	0
4	1876	8.79	0
5	1953	8.76	0
6	1912	7.70	0
7	2001	7.48	0
8	1977	7.41	0
9	1993	6.64	0
10	1913	6.47	0
11	1994	6.33	0
12	1984	6.30	0
13	2011	6.19	0
14	1933	6.08	0
15	1944	5.98	0
16	1967	5.97	0
17	1919	5.96	0
18	1942	5.91	0
19	1932	5.82	0
20	1881	5.81	0
21	1899	5.77	0
22	1974	5.76	0
23	1951	5.62	0
24	1877	5.56	0
25	1871	5.54	0
26	1922	5.52	0
27	1890	5.50	0
28	1901	5.47	0
29	1936	5.45	0
30	2007	5.35	0
31	1896	5.28	0
32	2017	5.25	0
33	1872	5.24	0
34	1997	5.18	0
35	2018	5.17	0
36	1991	5.16	0
37	1998	5.08	0
38	1956	5.03	0
39	1906	5.01	0
40	2005	4.96	0
41	1989	4.93	0
-	1987	4.93	0
43	1902	4.84	0
44	1931	4.83	0
45	1968	4.79	0
46	1939	4.78	0
47	1920	4.75	0
48	1914	4.74	0
49	1940	4.73	0
50	2015	4.72	0
51	1880	4.66	0
52	1888	4.62	0
-	1884	4.62	0
54	1869	4.61	0
55	2024	4.57	12

[Brian5671]

28 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

 at some of the model trends for this weekend. Good thing the rain’s desperately needed and there’s plenty of sand left to be eroded on the beaches! 

Euro looks fun

[Rtd208]

12z EPS is very wet for the weekend.

[Roger Smith]

In 1915 a record 10.2" of snow April 3-4 was followed by two record highs later in April (25th 91F, 27th 92F). 1938 and 1942 also saw significant early April snowfalls and very warm highs later in the month. 1917 went the other way, setting a record high on 1st (83F) and 6.4" snow on 9th. 

[MJO812]

Rain here again

[Rtd208]

Thunder here. Wow

[donsutherland1]

A strong cold front is crossing the region. Already, the temperatures is falling from New York City westward.

The low temperature will likely approach or reach freezing tomorrow and Friday morning in New York City. Readings in the 20s are likely well outside New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia.

A storm will likely bring a windswept 1.00"-3.00" of rain with locally higher amounts during the weekend. Significant coastal flooding at high tide and beach erosion are likely.

Milder air will also begin to return during the weekend. The closing days of March could turn warm.

It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around March 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.42°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is now fading. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was +3.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.827 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 48.0° (5.3° above normal).

 

[psv88]

56 today. Helluva way to run a cool down

[jm1220]

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A strong cold front is crossing the region. Already, the temperatures is falling from New York City westward.

The low temperature will likely approach or reach freezing tomorrow and Friday morning in New York City. Readings in the 20s are likely well outside New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia.

A storm will likely bring a windswept 1.00"-3.00" of rain with locally higher amounts during the weekend. Significant coastal flooding at high tide and beach erosion are likely.

Milder air will also begin to return during the weekend. The closing days of March could turn warm.

It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around March 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.42°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is now fading. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was +3.25 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.827 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 48.0° (5.3° above normal).

 

I wonder if Boston has ever finished with 2 winters in a row under 15"? I think last winter they had just under 13" and this winter under 10" as well. It's just as bad there/even worse based on averages. 

[bkviking]

Pretty heavy rain in Port Jeff with nice wind gusts. Nice blob of red on radar out here. Down to 46° from 56° 2 hours ago. 

[BxEngine]

10 minute ice squall. That was interesting.

[snywx]

This is wild right now

33 w/ heavy snow falling 

coating on all surfaces