March 2024

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

So much for the weekend snowstorm fantasies lol

Nobody thought this lol 

[SnoSki14]

Yeah there's huge rainmaker potential here. The amounts offshore are pretty ridiculous. 

A perfectly timed cutoff would bring 6"+ amounts to us. 

Luckily its been dry lately so we should be fine unless we see 3"+ amounts. 

[Brian5671]

28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah there's huge rainmaker potential here. The amounts offshore are pretty ridiculous. 

A perfectly timed cutoff would bring 6"+ amounts to us. 

Luckily its been dry lately so we should be fine unless we see 3"+ amounts. 

12Z CMC with a bump west (This includes a bit more from a 2nd system next week)

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah there's huge rainmaker potential here. The amounts offshore are pretty ridiculous. 

A perfectly timed cutoff would bring 6"+ amounts to us. 

Luckily its been dry lately so we should be fine unless we see 3"+ amounts. 

Dry? Not here. I'm at ~5" for the month. My basement was a half inch deep last weekend with that nearly 2". Any time it rains more than a half inch or so the water just seeps through the walls from about 3' off the floor and up through the floor drain. The ground is still saturated, creeks are still high and most local ponds and NYC reservoirs are still totally full and the overflow dams are still running strong.  

[Brian5671]

42 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Dry? Not here. I'm at ~5" for the month. My basement was a half inch deep last weekend with that nearly 2". Any time it rains more than a half inch or so the water just seeps through the walls from about 3' off the floor and up through the floor drain. The ground is still saturated, creeks are still high and most local ponds and NYC reservoirs are still totally full and the overflow dams are still running strong.  

We've gone about 10 days or so here since the last big rainer-at least the water has stopped coming out of the ground lol.    Dry air last 2 days really helping-dewpoint 15-20 degrees

[Big Jims Videos]

Gonna go from talking about enhanced fire danger Thursday (it could be a red flag day perhaps over central and southern Jersey) to flood potential in 24 hours.   

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nobody thought this lol 

Yea…..oook lol

[SnoSki14]

37 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yea…..oook lol

JB doesn't count 

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

We've gone about 10 days or so here since the last big rainer-at least the water has stopped coming out of the ground lol.    Dry air last 2 days really helping-dewpoint 15-20 degrees

Yeah the surface has dried out nicely but a foot down is a different story. It is really nice that my yard isn't squishy anymore. 

[TJW014]

41 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

Gonna go from talking about enhanced fire danger Thursday (it could be a red flag day perhaps over central and southern Jersey) to flood potential in 24 hours.   

This is also worth monitoring. The somewhat positive aspect is that the winds are expected to be most powerful immediately following the frontal passage overnight on Wednesday/Thursday. It will remain pretty at daybreak, but the wind should diminish somewhat by the afternoon when the relative humidity begins to decrease significantly."

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Yeah the surface has dried out nicely but a foot down is a different story. It is really nice that my yard isn't squishy anymore. 

yeah...water table is very high here

[snowman19]

@Bluewave @donsutherland1 Here is why all the stratospheric and SSWE hype failed all winter long. There is no denying that we are in the midst of major climate change/AGW anymore. We have to start rethinking the way we forecast long range winter outlooks
 

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Bluewave @donsutherland1 Here is why all the stratospheric and SSWE hype failed all winter long. There is no denying that we are in the midst of major climate change/AGW anymore. We have to start rethinking the way we forecast long range winter outlooks
 

Yes. That's a vital point.

The widespread marine heatwaves (largely driven by climate change) distorted the impact of a strong El Niño event. Hence, the strong event didn't register as might previously have been expected on such measures as the MEI and RONI. The pool of deep cold air in the Northern Hemisphere was again limited in expanse and magnitude translating into shorter and less severe cold air outbreaks than might otherwise have occurred.

One simply cannot forecast consistently without considering the climate context. Old analogs are irrelevant, because they have been drawn from a climate that no longer exists. Consistent forecasting success requires awareness of the impacts of climate change and the need for flexibility in considering developments that were not common in the past colder climate. Atmospheric circulations have changed, which reduces the predictive value of teleconnections. A reduced supply of cold air makes cold periods less severe and shorter in duration absent a "stuck" pattern as occurred over Scandinavia (while North America was stuck in a persistent warm pattern).

Forecasting frameworks need to be adapted to the reality of the warmer climate. Rigid old ways of thinking coupled with cognitive biases e.g., confirmation bias seeking cold outcomes (already less common), greatly increase the risk of error.

At a seasonal level, even as overall forecasting skill is low due to the timeframe involves, one can't assume a near 50-50 split between warm and cold seasons. Instead, the split may now be nearing 2-to-1 in favor of warm ones. That means one must seek a greater degree of evidence to support a cold forecast than had been the case in the past.

The good news on the seasonal forecasting front is that the climate models have done a good job in recent years, especially for North America. ENSO + warmer climate + seasonal models all indicated widespread continental warmth in North America for the preceding winter. That's what happened with the warmth overperforming. Both Canada and the United States experienced their warmest winters on record.

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures will rebound tomorrow, but a somewhat stronger shot of colder air will begin to arrive later tomorrow and tomorrow night. The low temperature will likely approach or reach freezing on Thursday morning and/or Friday morning in New York City. Readings in the 20s are likely well outside New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia.

A potential storm will need to be monitored for the weekend. Details still remain somewhat uncertain. If the storm tracks close to the coast or just inland, it could bring a high-impact heavy windswept rain to the region. If it passes farther offshore, it could produce a gusty breeze and some showers or periods of rain. Coastal flooding at high tide is likely under either scenario, but the former scenario could be a damaging one. The former scenario appears more likely than that latter one.

Milder air will also begin to return during the weekend. The closing days of March could turn warm.

No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 20th. It is very likely that New York City's Central Park will finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.1°C for the week centered around March 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.88°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.42°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is now fading. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was +5.26 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.847 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 48.0° (5.3° above normal).

 

[bluewave]

44 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Bluewave @donsutherland1 Here is why all the stratospheric and SSWE hype failed all winter long. There is no denying that we are in the midst of major climate change/AGW anymore. We have to start rethinking the way we forecast long range winter outlooks
 

Yeah, it would be interesting to see specifically which aspect of the warming in the system lead to this outcome. Notice the extreme volatility of the AO between positive and negative. Maybe the IO to WPAC MJO driven Rossby wave train competing with the El Niño was interfering with the coupling. So every drop of the -AO was answered by and quick increase. 

 

[WX-PA]

43 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Bluewave @donsutherland1 Here is why all the stratospheric and SSWE hype failed all winter long. There is no denying that we are in the midst of major climate change/AGW anymore. We have to start rethinking the way we forecast long range winter outlooks
 

Lol..the late 80's and 90's were warm and snowless..2 good winters in 14 years. We are going through the same thing now after the great winters of 2002-2016, weather changes..that's how you get averages with climate.Climate might be changing and warming but it doesn't mean that's it for snow and cold which I think you were implying.

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Lol..the late 80's and 90's were warm and snowless..2 good winters in 14 years. We are going through the same thing now after the great winters of 2002-2016, weather changes..that's how you get averages with climate.Climate might be changing and warming but it doesn't mean that's it for snow and cold which I think you were implying.

Ok

[donsutherland1]

23 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Lol..the late 80's and 90's were warm and snowless..2 good winters in 14 years. We are going through the same thing now after the great winters of 2002-2016, weather changes..that's how you get averages with climate.Climate might be changing and warming but it doesn't mean that's it for snow and cold which I think you were implying.

Although there will continue to be snowy winters, what has been disappearing are winters with a combination of very cold weather and excessive snowfall. In contrast, the very warm/very low snowfall winters have been increasing in frequency.

Note: Winter 2023-24 is based on snowfall through March 19th. Should no additional snow be measured in NYC, Winter 2023-24 would rank 4th in terms of winter warmth and lack of seasonal snowfall.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, WX-PA said:

Lol..the late 80's and 90's were warm and snowless..2 good winters in 14 years. We are going through the same thing now after the great winters of 2002-2016, weather changes..that's how you get averages with climate.Climate might be changing and warming but it doesn't mean that's it for snow and cold which I think you were implying.

That’s what we call a strawman argument. 

[wishcast_hater]

That’s what we call a strawman argument. 

I think you need to revisit the definition in regards to his post.


.

[ForestHillWx]

Snowing out this way. 

[donsutherland1]

Flurries.

[NorthShoreWx]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Although there will continue to be snowy winters, what has been disappearing are winters with a combination of very cold weather and excessive snowfall. In contrast, the very warm/very low snowfall winters have been increasing in frequency.

Note: Winter 2023-24 is based on snowfall through March 19th. Should no additional snow be measured in NYC, Winter 2023-24 would rank 4th in terms of winter warmth and lack of seasonal snowfall.

Without doing any actual digging, it looks like snowfall is weighted more heavily than cold in the right column.

[bluewave]

12 hours ago, WX-PA said:

Lol..the late 80's and 90's were warm and snowless..2 good winters in 14 years. We are going through the same thing now after the great winters of 2002-2016, weather changes..that's how you get averages with climate.Climate might be changing and warming but it doesn't mean that's it for snow and cold which I think you were implying.

The 1980s and 1990s were no comparison to the warmth and lack of snow during the 2020s so far. I will use LGA stats to compare since NYC has been consistently undermeasuring snowfall. While we are only half way through the 2020s, we would need a significant cool down and snowfall increase next 5 years to avoid the warmest and least snowiest decade on record.

If global and local temperatures continue rising at the same rate, then we will eventually have a whole decade with the average snowfall under 10” and the average winter temperature over 40.0°. 
 

LGA 2020s so far snowfall average….15.8”….DJF ave temp…39.2°

………1990s………..27.1”………………………….36.7°

………1980s………..21.0”…………………………34.5°

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Without doing any actual digging, it looks like snowfall is weighted more heavily than cold in the right column.

Seasonal snowfall and winter temperatures are normalized and both variables are weighted equally. 

1995-96 saw seasonal snowfall that was around 3 sigma above the historic mean while the Winter 1995-96 mean temperature was less than 0.5 sigma below the historic mean. The cold has really disappeared. The last winter that was at least 1 standard deviation colder than the historic mean was 1977-78. 1977-78 was also the last such very cold winter with snowfall that was at least 1 standard deviation above the historic mean.

In contrast, very warm winters have increased dramatically. The last 3 winters and 4 of the last 5  winters have been at least 1 sigma warmer than the historic mean. Beginning with 2011-12 through 2023-24, 7 winters were 1 sigma or more warmer than the historic mean (4 of those winters had snowfall that was at least 1 standard deviation below the historic mean).

[SACRUS]

 

36 to 43 partly/variable clouds.  Warmer day ahead of reinforcing colder front. Scattered showers later ahead of front, windy.  Colder 36hours period overnight tonight and into Fri AM.  The drier period ends this weekend with potential soaker >2 inches of rain with cut of low exiting the Carolinas.  Beyond there moderating / warmer with next shot of cooler to close the month, with ridging into the EC to open next month but it looks active with frequent rain chances.

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  82 (1945)
NYC:  83 (1945)
LGA:  82 (1945)

 

 

Lows:

EWR: 18 (1949)
NYC:  11 (1885)
LGA:  19  (1949)

 

Historical:

 

1924 - A late winter storm in Oklahoma produced nearly a foot of snow at Oklahoma City and at Tulsa. (David Ludlum)

1948 - The city of Juneau received 31 inches of snow in 24 hours, a record for the Alaska capitol. (20th-21st) (David Ludlum)

1984 - A severe three day winter storm came to an end over the Central Plains. The storm produced up to twenty inches of snow in Colorado, Nebraska and Kansas, and left a thick coat of ice from eastern Kansas across northwestern Missouri into Iowa. (Storm Data)

1987 - A storm produced blizzard conditions in Wyoming and eastern Nebraska, and severe thunderstorms in central Nebraska. Snowfall totals ranged up to 12 inches at Glenrock WY and Chadron NE. Thunderstorms in central Nebraska produced wind gusts to 69 mph at Valentine, and wind gusts to 76 mph at Bartley. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Squalls in the Great Lakes Region left up to eight inches of new snow on the ground in time for the official start of spring. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the western U.S. Seven cities reported new record high temperatures for the date, including Tucson AZ with a reading of 89 degrees. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in western Kansas to usher in the official start of the spring season. Thunderstorms produced severe weather from east Texas to Alabama and northwest Florida, with nearly fifty reports of large hail and damaging winds during the afternoon and evening hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - The northeastern U.S. was in the midst of a snowstorm as spring officially began at 4 19 PM. Snowfall totals in the Green Mountains of Vermont ranged up to thirty inches, and up to 15 inches of snow was reported in the Catskills and Adirondacks of eastern New York State. Totals in eastern Pennsylvania ranged up to 12 inches at Armenia Mountain. The storm resulted in one death, and forty-nine injuries. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1998: A deadly tornado outbreak occurred over portions of the southeastern United States on this day. Particularly hard hit were rural areas outside of Gainesville, Georgia, where at least 12 people were killed during the early morning hours. The entire outbreak killed 14 people and produced 12 tornadoes across three states.  The town of Stoneville, North Carolina, hard hit by the storms.

2005 - An F1 tornado hits South San Francisco. Trees are uprooted. At least twenty homes and twenty businesses are damaged, including the city's new fire station.

2006 - Grand Island, NE, receives 17.8 inches of snow in 24 hours, breaking the old local record for the most snowfall in a day by 4.8 inches. 29.7 inches in 48 hours also breaks a record.

[SACRUS]

 

[bluewave]

Extremely steep lapse rates and some CAPE should allow for gusts over 40 and small hail with the convection later today. 

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 1980s and 1990s were no comparison to the warmth and lack of snow during the 2020s so far. I will use LGA stats to compare since NYC has been consistently undermeasuring snowfall. While we are only half way through the 2020s, we would need a significant cool down and snowfall increase next 5 years to avoid the warmest and least snowiest decade on record.

If global and local temperatures continue rising at the same rate, then we will eventually have a whole decade with the average snowfall under 10” and the average winter temperature over 40.0°. 
 

LGA 2020s so far snowfall average….15.8”….DJF ave temp…39.2°

………1990s………..27.1”………………………….36.7°

………1980s………..21.0”…………………………34.5°

The 1979-1993 snow drought period isn’t even in the ballpark of being anywhere near comparable to the climate now. We actually had true arctic cold back then, the oceans weren’t completely torched, Canadian snowcover and arctic sea ice were normal to well above normal at times and the atmospheric circulations were completely different as were the solar cycles