March 2024

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The JAN-MAR 15 period still finished above 30.0 in NYC at 30.9. So it was comparable to DJF 14-15 at 31.4.

Decembers have warmed too much since the 70s and 80s to allow a full winter to finish below 30.0° like 76-77 did. December 14 came in at 40.5° with 60s on Christmas Day. So the cold got started too late to compete against the really cold winters like 76-77.

The cold also ended too quickly in 15 to have a memorable spring MAM cold ranking. In fact May 15 was the 2nd warmest on record in NYC.

The cold was so impressive in 76-77 that it was the 7th coldest fall and winter on record. That kind of 6 month extended cold is no longer possible from the fall into winter. These days the early to sometimes mid fall is like another summer month. Temperatures in 1977 actually rebounded for a time in the early spring like a delayed thaw. Then the historic snowstorm occurred in May. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Feb 28	Missing Count
1	1869-02-28	34.7	122
2	1918-02-28	39.2	0
3	1881-02-28	39.9	0
4	1888-02-29	40.2	0
5	1872-02-29	40.7	2
6	1873-02-28	40.8	0
7	1977-02-28	41.1	0
8	1893-02-28	41.2	0
-	1884-02-29	41.2	0
9	1904-02-29	41.3	2
10	1905-02-28	41.4	0
-	1883-02-28	41.4	0

we had 90s in April in 1977 didn't we-- just like we had in 1976.

and the 1977 summer had a historic heatwave the likes of which we didn't see again until 1993.

[Brian5671]

43 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

For that area and time period, climatology suggest a 70-80% cloud cover.

Saving grace could be the warmer lakes this winter-perhaps that helps?

[bluewave]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

But if we were around and on here back then we would have hated the 76-77 winter, it was a waste of cold air.

2014-15 was MUCH better.

One of the first indications how cold 76-77 was going to be was NYC getting down to 50° at the end of August. Then the 29° in October. So a tie of the all-time monthly minimum in August and 2nd coldest in October. Then single digits during the first week of December. None of which has been able to be replicated since then. 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1986	50	0
-	1982	50	0
-	1976	50	0
-	1965	50	0
-	1885	50	0
2	1923	51	0
-	1912	51	0
-	1887	51	0
3	1940	52	0
-	1934	52	0
-	1895	52	0
-	1890	52	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1936	28	0
2	1976	29	0
-	1925	29	0
-	1887	29	0
-	1879	29	0
6	1940	30	0
-	1869	30	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 7	Missing Count
1	1875-12-07	8	0
2	1976-12-07	9	0
3	1926-12-07	10	0
-	1882-12-07	10	0

[ag3]

Pristine day.

Weather station up to 63.7 degrees.

[Roger Smith]

5 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’m not well versed in African climatology but this seems a little extreme to me for March:

https://watchers.news/2024/03/12/thousands-of-high-temperature-records-broken-across-africa/

You can see climate stats for Niamey, Niger on wikipedia (look at city, not country), April and may are warmest months and mean daily max around 40C, on average march and April see a reading of 43 C, all-time extremes around 46 C. So this was perhaps a bit earlier than when all-time records were set before (guessing mid-April). A somewhat wetter season begins in late may. march-April see averages of 8-9 hrs of sun a day. GFS current nowcast shows 582 dm thickness over most of regions quoted in report, on both sides of equator. Sun could be running a bit hot as there have been large flares in past few days.  

I guess they are usually around 38 C at this point but it looks like a "cool" day would be 32-34 C and a normal warm day would be 41-42 C. 

As to S Africa being very warm, it's like September in central plains states or south of your region for local climate, so this would be like 1931 with extremes being set in low 100sF.  

I noticed in the linked article no records under equatorial cloud band, just either side of it. 

[Brian5671]

63 here.  TORCH CITY

[MANDA]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

One of the first indications how cold 76-77 was going to be was NYC getting down to 50° at the end of August. Then the 29° in October. So a tie of the all-time monthly minimum in August and 2nd coldest in October. Then single digits during the first week of December. None of which has been able to be replicated since then. 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1986	50	0
-	1982	50	0
-	1976	50	0
-	1965	50	0
-	1885	50	0
2	1923	51	0
-	1912	51	0
-	1887	51	0
3	1940	52	0
-	1934	52	0
-	1895	52	0
-	1890	52	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1936	28	0
2	1976	29	0
-	1925	29	0
-	1887	29	0
-	1879	29	0
6	1940	30	0
-	1869	30	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 7	Missing Count
1	1875-12-07	8	0
2	1976-12-07	9	0
3	1926-12-07	10	0
-	1882-12-07	10	0

Amazing stats there.  I remember all 3 of those general events.  Especially the early December bitter cold.  As a young kid it seemed even more impressive than it actually was.  If memory serves there was 4-6" snow Christmas night into the early morning hours of the 26th.  Was supposed to be rain but storm tracked just far enough offshore for a 4-6" plastering.  Pattern seemed to flip and hold right after Hurricane Belle went through.

[snowman19]

21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

63 here.  TORCH CITY

61 here. Looks like Thursday gets into the 70’s with sun, warmest day we’ve had since November 

[Roger Smith]

Fall of 1976 was quite an outlier, I recall lakes in central Ontario (not Great Lakes) being frozen over before end of November, and usually that does not take place until well into January. There was very little wintry weather even up there, after mid-February. The whole season was displaced about 1.5 months early. Trees were in full leaf about a month earlier than average in April 1977 (as in 1976 also). 

[psv88]

60 here on the island 

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

One of the first indications how cold 76-77 was going to be was NYC getting down to 50° at the end of August. Then the 29° in October. So a tie of the all-time monthly minimum in August and 2nd coldest in October. Then single digits during the first week of December. None of which has been able to be replicated since then. 

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1986	50	0
-	1982	50	0
-	1976	50	0
-	1965	50	0
-	1885	50	0
2	1923	51	0
-	1912	51	0
-	1887	51	0
3	1940	52	0
-	1934	52	0
-	1895	52	0
-	1890	52	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Oct
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Lowest Min Temperature	Missing Count
1	1936	28	0
2	1976	29	0
-	1925	29	0
-	1887	29	0
-	1879	29	0
6	1940	30	0
-	1869	30	0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 7	Missing Count
1	1875-12-07	8	0
2	1976-12-07	9	0
3	1926-12-07	10	0
-	1882-12-07	10	0

Did we hit 50 for an overnight low somewhere in the mid 80s in August too?

The very first time I saw the Perseid meteor showers the sky conditions were the best they've ever been for them-- clear skies all three nights and very chilly weather, I remember it got down to 50.....it was in 1986 I think?

edit-- I saw it's topmost in your list!

That was my first ever Perseid meteor shower and the first time in my life I saw shooting stars and the weather was never this perfect any year after that! Just like early fall!

 

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Fall of 1976 was quite an outlier, I recall lakes in central Ontario (not Great Lakes) being frozen over before end of November, and usually that does not take place until well into January. There was very little wintry weather even up there, after mid-February. The whole season was displaced about 1.5 months early. Trees were in full leaf about a month earlier than average in April 1977 (as in 1976 also). 

any idea why this happened? was there a volcanic eruption that year?

[BucksCO_PA]

55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thats why 2014-2015 was such an awesome winter.... snow and cold.

1976-77 was a colossal bore, I am glad I was not aware enough to remember, cold without snow is a huge waste and energy burden and we had some huge energy problems in the 70s.

Locally here around the Philly area JAN 1977 was actually a top 10 snowiest month at that time. 21 of 31 days had at least 2" of snow cover. Problem was the rest of the season was useless snowfall wise.

Regardless given the current run of wretched winters I'd sign up for a redux in second.

[dmillz25]

65 here

[ILoveWinter]

40 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

61 here. Looks like Thursday gets into the 70’s with sun, warmest day we’ve had since November 

Bring it on, nothing worse than being too warm for snow but still too cold to enjoy anything.

[BucksCO_PA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The JAN-MAR 15 period still finished above 30.0 in NYC at 30.9. So it was comparable to DJF 14-15 at 31.4.

Decembers have warmed too much since the 70s and 80s to allow a full winter to finish below 30.0° like 76-77 did. December 14 came in at 40.5° with 60s on Christmas Day. So the cold got started too late to compete against the really cold winters like 76-77.

The cold also ended too quickly in 15 to have a memorable spring MAM cold ranking. In fact May 15 was the 2nd warmest on record in NYC.

The cold was so impressive in 76-77 that it was the 7th coldest fall and winter on record. That kind of 6 month extended cold is no longer possible from the fall into winter. These days the early to sometimes mid fall is like another summer month. Temperatures in 1977 actually rebounded for a time in the early spring like a delayed thaw. Then the historic snowstorm occurred in May. 
 

Overall the brutal 1977 winter ended rather abruptly in the NE & quickly transitioned to one of the warmest springs regionally on record. At the time it was the 3rd warmest & even in the face of the recent run of warmth it still remains the 7th warmest on record for the northeast. Pretty amazing that the monster 42" Buffalo snow cover that peaked in early FEB was gone by March 5th.

The May snow event is the ultimate late season fluke event especially for month that is still the 20th warmest May regionally. Boston was 92 degrees only a week after that event.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/regional/rankings/101/tavg/197705

 

[MJO812]

This weather stinks

 

Too warm

 

Bring on cold and snow all year

[WX-PA]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This weather stinks

 

Too warm

 

Bring on cold and snow all year

You need an ice age. Glaciers in Brooklyn.

[bluewave]

44 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

Overall the brutal 1977 winter ended rather abruptly in the NE & quickly transitioned to one of the warmest springs regionally on record. At the time it was the 3rd warmest & even in the face of the recent run of warmth it still remains the 7th warmest on record for the northeast. Pretty amazing that the monster 42" Buffalo snow cover that peaked in early FEB was gone by March 5th.

The May snow event is the ultimate late season fluke event especially for month that is still the 20th warmest May regionally. Boston was 92 degrees only a week after that event.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/regional/rankings/101/tavg/197705

 

The core of the historic cold from the fall into the winter 76-77  was situated to our west around Ohio. That was their coldest fall combined with winter period. Also 3 of their top 5 of their coldest winters since the late 1800s occurred in the late 1970s. Most of the Arctic fronts around NYC during those winters were followed by W to NW flow. It’s probably why NYC didn’t get below -10 like they did in 1917-1918 which places in Ohio were able to surpass. The only times that NYC got below -10 were with NW to N flow down the Hudson Valley and an Arctic high over the Great Lakes. These late 70s into 94 Arctic outbreaks were accompanied by highs dropping further SW. The 1917-1918 and Feb 34 Arctic outbreaks had more NW to N flow down the Hudson Valley. Newark and Philly almost got down to -10 in the 1980s when they had more favorable flow that kept the best cold west of the Hudson. 
 

Time Series Summary for Cincinnati Area, OH (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Feb 28	Missing Count
1	1977-02-28	36.1	0
2	1918-02-28	37.8	0
3	1978-02-28	38.9	0
4	1963-02-28	39.7	0
5	1982-02-28	41.1	0
6	1936-02-29	41.2	0
7	1996-02-29	41.3	0
-	1970-02-28	41.3	0
8	1979-02-28	41.5	0
9	1994-02-28	41.6	0
10	1904-02-29	41.7	0
-	1893-02-28	41.7	0

 

Time Series Summary for Cincinnati Area, OH (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	1977-1978	21.7	0
2	1976-1977	23.1	0
3	1917-1918	24.4	0
4	1962-1963	25.0	0
5	1978-1979	26.2	0
6	1935-1936	26.3	0
7	1904-1905	27.7	0
8	1981-1982	27.8	0
-	1903-1904	27.8	0
9	1919-1920	28.0	1
10	1969-1970	28.4	0
-	1963-1964	28.4	0

[ag3]

Up to 66 degrees here.

Above all forecasts.

 

Stunning weather. 10 out of 10.

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Up to 66 degrees here.

Above all forecasts.

 

Stunning weather. 10 out of 10.

66 here as well.  Let er rip rest of the month.   Hoping for +10 at this point.

[SACRUS]

67 here , breezy but very nice out.  

4PM:

EWR: 68
JFK: 66
NYC: 66
LGA: 63

[psv88]

65 in Suffolk. Excellent 

[psv88]

The grass is very green for March 12

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

The grass is very green for March 12

Noticed that this year-everything's going to be a couple weeks ahead of schedule this year

[donsutherland1]

Under brilliant sunshine, the temperature topped out in the middle 60s across parts of the region.

The warmth will peak tomorrow through Friday with the temperature rising into the middle and upper 60s in the New York City area and middle and perhaps upper 70s from Philadelphia and southward. The generally mild conditions will persist through mid-month.

There is good consensus on the guidance that a deep trough will likely develop just after mid-month. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no direct Arctic shots are likely. As a result, any cold will likely not be severe for the season and the potential exists for the cooler period to last one to perhaps two weeks, much as occurred in February. Any sharper cold shots will likely have a short duration. The closing days of the month could turn warmer.

No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 15th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has continued to increase. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.4°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.53°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was -5.60 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.335 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.5° (3.7° above normal).

 

[Cfa]

Cherry blossoms opening up in deep Suffolk.

High of 63 here.

[nycwinter]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This weather stinks

 

Too warm

 

Bring on cold and snow all year

looking forward to next week normal  mid march chilly weather..

[ag3]

My magnolia tree is starting to come alive. Grass is growing as well now.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Under brilliant sunshine, the temperature topped out in the middle 60s across parts of the region.

The warmth will peak tomorrow through Friday with the temperature rising into the middle and upper 60s in the New York City area and middle and perhaps upper 70s from Philadelphia and southward. The generally mild conditions will persist through mid-month.

There is good consensus on the guidance that a deep trough will likely develop just after mid-month. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no direct Arctic shots are likely. As a result, any cold will likely not be severe for the season and the potential exists for the cooler period to last one to perhaps two weeks, much as occurred in February. Any sharper cold shots will likely have a short duration. The closing days of the month could turn warmer.

No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 15th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has continued to increase. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.4°C for the week centered around March 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.53°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was -5.60 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.335 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.5° (3.7° above normal).

 

3.7 above....do I hear 4.0....

Has been rising as the month progresses as have most of the previous months.

Where March finishes will depend on how "chilly" and for how long it lasts next week.

I think a 4.0 or a little higher finish is quite possible.

Beautiful day today....If not going to snow I'll take this over cool, damp and rainy anytime.