Allsnow Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 3 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Some said the pattern change would take hold mid February and last a month By mid February it was very obvious that wasn’t going to happen. The warmth for late February and early March was very well forecasted imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 DT is in the same category as JB. The only difference is JB is probably a very nice guy and DT is well you know an A-Hole.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 13 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said: DT is in the same category as JB. The only difference is JB is probably a very nice guy and DT is well you know an A-Hole. . No DT threw in the towel weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: By mid February it was very obvious that wasn’t going to happen. The warmth for late February and early March was very well forecasted imo Right but in late January people acted like it was guaranteed to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Numerous snow showers here this afternoon and one legit moderate snow squall. Temperature dropped to 34 with that. Moderate snow was coming down horizontal with very gusty winds. All melted on contact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 After ten days, March 2024 was already wetter than were 100 of 155 previous years to end of March. (.03" added so far for March 10). Wet starts to March (NYC 1869 to 2024) with 2024 already easily in first place for March 1-10. RANK _____ YEAR __ PRECIP __ 01 ______ 2024 __ 4.57 ___ __ 02 ______ 2018 __ 3.65 ___ __ 03 ______ 1967 __ 3.49 ___ __ 04 ______ 1914 __ 3.44 ___ __ 05 ______ 1902 __ 3.34 ___ __ 06 ______ 2011 __ 3.17 ___ 4.08" incl 11 __ 07 ______ 1994 __ 3.05 ___ __ 08 ______ 1942 __ 2.97 ___ __ 09 ______ 1991 __ 2.92 ___ __ 10 ______ 1979 __ 2.90 ___ 3.65" incl 11 __ 11 ______ 1919 __ 2.68 ___ __ 12 ______ 2007 __ 2.66 ___ __ 13 ______ 1906 __ 2.64 ___ __ 14 ______ 2008 __ 2.59 ___ (1901 3.55" to 11 but 2.94" was on 11). Oddly none of the above (aside from 2024) got into the top ten wettest Marches, several were in 11 to 25 range. (several of above list count on just one day's large total as in 1914 1st, few rely on 3 separate 1"+ values) (a similar amount, 4.65" fell March 12-21 of 1912 incl 3 events over 1"). and 4.89" fell March 4-13 of 1953, 4.64" fell in just four days March 12-15 2010) 1886 and 1986 were dry for first ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 23 minutes ago, psv88 said: Not sure we dip below freezing again. Grass is greening up nicely out here. This week there should be alot of growth with the 60s and 70s If this late month cold shot is happening we'll definitely go below again a few times. And that will damage some of the plants that will bloom this week in the upcoming warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 First time NYC ever had 50.00”+of precipitation from July into early March. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Mar 9 Missing Count 1 2024-03-09 51.58 0 2 2012-03-09 49.54 0 3 1984-03-09 48.25 0 4 2019-03-09 48.12 0 5 2022-03-09 47.41 0 6 1914-03-09 46.20 0 7 1928-03-09 45.41 0 8 1976-03-09 45.36 0 9 1972-03-09 45.16 0 10 1890-03-09 44.27 0 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Right but in late January people acted like it was guaranteed to happen Don’t disagree, but if by Feb 17th you were expecting a cold/snowy March you were ignoring all the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Don’t disagree, but if by Feb 17th you were expecting a cold/snowy March you were ignoring all the guidance Well yeah by that point it was dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Snowing now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Don, I respect your integrity but the first pic is suspect. Are you sure that was taken today? You know I’m a horticulturalist at Columbia and a huge climate change backer but that pic seems off. We are barely cracking buds on the earliest flowering trees here. And maybe a few daffodils… I took it this morning at the New York Botanical Garden. All of the Japanese Apricot trees are in full bloom now. Four are in bloom at one location and the additional Japanese Apricot is in bloom at a separate location. It's really unusual. Here's the EXIF data: Some of what's currently in bloom at the Ladies' Border Garden at the New York Botanical Garden: Not pictured: Adonis and Camelia. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Snowing now Same. Last flakes until next winter? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Following afternoon showers, some of which were mixed with wet snowflakes and graupel, the temperature fell into the lower 40s and a gusty wind picked up. Tomorrow will be a brisk day. Afterward, it will turn noticeably milder. The warmth will peak during Wednesday through Friday with the temperature rising into the lower and middle 60s in the New York City area and lower and middle 70s from Philadelphia and southward. The generally mild conditions will persist through mid-month. There is growing consensus on the guidance that a deep trough could develop just after mid-month. However, as has generally been the case this winter, no direct Arctic shots are likely. As a result, any cold will likely not be severe for the season and the potential exists for the cooler period to last one to perhaps two weeks, much as occurred in February. Any sharper cold shots will likely have a short duration. The closing days of the month could turn warmer. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region through at least March 15th. The probability of an unprecedented second consecutive winter with less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City's Central Park has increased. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around February 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.58°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +6.46 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.652 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.2° (3.4° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 1 minute ago, bluewave said: With the coldest departures forecast to be to our west again later in the month, it’s possible that the last freeze in NYC was on March 1st. But even if they get down to 32°, doesn’t look like any hard freezes in the 20s will happen again this season. The urban heat island might be done with 32 or below, out here though it's usually a few degrees colder or more than the city at night. And like PSV said, lots of blooming here over the last week. Hopefully the cold air sets up west of us like usual again so we don't see plant damage. Of course I'd be more than happy to keep the bugs away a few more weeks. With all this rain the mosquitoes will be awful later in the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: With the coldest departures forecast to be to our west again later in the month, it’s possible that the last freeze in NYC was on March 1st. But even if they get down to 32°, doesn’t look like any hard freezes in the 20s will happen again this season. What does EPS show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: What does EPS show Doesn’t fit the narrative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 Just now, uofmiami said: Doesn’t fit the narrative. inland areas north of I-80 still have not seen their last measurable snowfall of the season IMO - not going to mention the coast yet...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 19 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Same. Last flakes until next winter? Most likely 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 12 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Doesn’t fit the narrative. The EPS has been running too cold day 11-15 and the GEFS has been closer to reality at least for us. But they both have been more than 5° too cold to our west. So these long range cold forecasts have been correcting warmer the closer in we get. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 1 hour ago, bluewave said: With the coldest departures forecast to be to our west again later in the month, it’s possible that the last freeze in NYC was on March 1st. But even if they get down to 32°, doesn’t look like any hard freezes in the 20s will happen again this season. Very predictable. Not even a chance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 2 hours ago, JetsPens87 said: Hi ag3. It's Snow Wolf. You'll be happy to know that the other board still allows no dissenting opinions. I got chewed out by the crazies for not liking the fantasy day 10 plus crap popping up periodically. I'll post here some more. Welcome back. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 The shoreline has taken an absolute beating this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Same. Last flakes until next winter? Maybe 2 more weeks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 6 hours ago, ag3 said: And look how warm it got now for Tuesday through Saturday. 3 hours ago, JetsPens87 said: Hi ag3. It's Snow Wolf. You'll be happy to know that the other board still allows no dissenting opinions. I got chewed out by the crazies for not liking the fantasy day 10 plus crap popping up periodically. I'll post here some more. Great to have both of you here! Please keep contributing. This forum is very realistic and informative 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 10 Share Posted March 10 49 minutes ago, Rjay said: The shoreline has taken an absolute beating this winter. To be fair…the barrier islanders are largely manmade, the natural state of things is for the barrier islands to be more swamp and marshland and not sandy islands… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 2 hours ago, Rjay said: Welcome back. Thanks rjay. I've been on hiatus from weather boards for 2 years almost (twins will take up some time hah). Tried to go back to the 'other' and it's insufferable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 1 minute ago, JetsPens87 said: Thanks rjay. I've been on hiatus from weather boards for 2 years almost (twins will take up some time hah). Tried to go back to the 'other' and it's insufferable. Congrats on the twins! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: Congrats on the twins! Thanks! I feel like I've aged 10 years in two lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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