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15 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

fun drive into work, it’s already shitty out, you then have people cutting you off for no reason when they have three other lanes to drive in.:fulltilt:

Wife just drove home from Metuchen in a deluge complete with typical NJ Parkway driver nonsense. She has bad eyesight and goes slow in the rain at night - in the right lane, always. People were still cutting her off and riding right up on her bumper. 

C’mon guys you have like 7 other lanes to choose from. 

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42 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

fun drive into work, it’s already shitty out, you then have people cutting you off for no reason when they have three other lanes to drive in.:fulltilt:

It’s wild how badly people drive when the weather is crappy. It’s like no rules of the road even apply anymore

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4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

1.9" here. Backyard is a pond/swamp again.

Easily got close to 2 inches up here. Torrential rain last night. It’s been relentless for the last 6 months. My buddy said the sump pump in has cellar hasn’t stopped running since October. The ground and soil is completely saturated, can’t hold anymore water. The rivers, lakes, streams, reservoirs are all at capacity 

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6 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

certainly dont wanna hear about a drought this summer. we have gotten slammed with rain.

Unfortunately given the ridiculously high soil moisture and ++AMO, I think we are in for a very humid summer. The developing La Niña and continued -PDO alone supports a hot summer and strong WAR/SE ridge

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On 3/8/2024 at 11:20 PM, Snowstorms said:

Great post.

There's been a lot of comments about the warmth in the last couple of winters being driven by the -PDO but I don't think so. Just a quick glance at the SST maps can tell you how atypical the current -PDO looks despite a deeply negative anomaly. I believe the period between 1998-2014 was the last time we had a true -PDO phase and it was quite reflective in the Pacific ssts. And we experienced several cold winters in that period especially from 2007-2015. Maybe a strong La Nina may shift those anomalies and also drive down Pacific SST's especially off the coast of Japan and in the WPAC. The warm Atlantic and +AMO don't help us either.

A poleward Aleutian ridge if linked with Atlantic blocking can be beneficial for the east too. It may not be a super cold pattern as the EPO would be neutral, but it would be below normal overall. If I'm not mistaken, we saw that in December 2010. 

Yeah, the subtropical warming especially in the western ocean basins  is more of a climate change signal than a -PDO signal even though both are overlapping. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00839-w

In this study, we evaluate the ocean warming pattern derived from four decades of satellite measurements. We find widespread strong subtropical ocean warming, concentrating mostly on the western ocean basins. In contrast to these observations, studies of paleoclimate suggest that the greatest ocean warming occurs at higher latitudes. By pairing the observed warming pattern with SST evolution in long-term climate simulations, we propose that the observed warming pattern is constrained by ocean dynamics of surface convergence (downwelling, subtropical gyres) and divergence (upwelling, subpolar gyres) rather than being dominated by internal variabilities, such as the PDO. This pattern emerges only at the early stage (a few decades) of anthropogenic warming when absorption of heat concentrates in the upper ocean. On centennial (for the Northern Pacific Ocean) to millennial (for the North Atlantic Ocean and Southern Hemisphere) timescales, when deep ocean water warms, the greatest ocean warming is expected to occur in the subpolar region, as indicated by paleo-reconstructions and the long-term and equilibrium climate simulations.


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49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Unfortunately given the ridiculously high soil moisture and ++AMO, I think we are in for a very humid summer. The developing La Niña and continued -PDO alone supports a hot summer and strong WAR/SE ridge

High potential of tropical moisture making it up this way.

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The warm spots could see a few days this week making it to around 70° or higher. So this should add to the already high departures around +10 so far this month. The average highs will be in the low 50s by around the spring equinox. So the models showing colder for a time would mean upper 40s which isn’t too bad with the higher sun angle.


 

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15 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

Hate to be callous but if it refuses to snow then bring on the destruction of a cat 3 tropical cyclone instead.

The word you're searching for isn't 'callous.' It's something else.  Why not go all in and ask for a cat 5?  Oh wait, that would be ridiculous.

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9 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

It’s wild how badly people drive when the weather is crappy. It’s like no rules of the road even apply anymore

It brings out two types of drivers.  Drivers who think that larger top heavy vehicles should be driven faster than usual in rainy conditions, and drivers who think they should drive 25 in a 55.

On the other hand I'm reminded of / humbled by George Carlin's line: "Have you ever noticed that everyone who drives slower than you is an idiot, and everyone who drives faster than you is a maniac?"

 

 

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48 Windy and mostly cloudy although there are some breaks in the clouds and wind gusts to 25 MPH .  Up to 4.50 of rain for the month here.  Drier / warmer Tue - Thu before the next systems approach with more rain later this week into the next weekend.  Beyond that trough into the NE 3/19 for a period.

 

 

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