2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

Even an area wide line of storms with nice lightning would be fun at this point. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

I’m craving a storm.

We have all the makings of a total dud season. We're almost in May and we have yet to get a big event. We got lucky with that on EML-ish setup the other week, but otherwise it's been a lousy year. To be clear, I'm not advocating for damage and never do, we're just in a persistent thunderstorm doldrum.

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We have all the makings of a total dud season. We're almost in May and we have yet to get a big event. We got lucky with that on EML-ish setup the other week, but otherwise it's been a lousy year. To be clear, I'm not advocating for damage and never do, we're just in a persistent thunderstorm doldrum.

18z GFS says not so fast. It has a window around day 10 with decent mid-level lapse rates somewhat close/in the area and good supercell parameters. Wayyyy out there - but I'm willing to give the season time to evolve. It definitely is annoying getting a big early heat "wave" like this and probably not getting much out of it precip/storm wise. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

18z GFS says not so fast. It has a window around day 10 with decent mid-level lapse rates somewhat close/in the area and good supercell parameters. Wayyyy out there - but I'm willing to give the season time to evolve. It definitely is annoying getting a big early heat "wave" like this and probably not getting much out of it precip/storm wise. 

You're going to be a wreck this summer if you're tracking D10 severe already.  

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

You're going to be a wreck this summer if you're tracking D10 severe already.  

Nah - just looking at "threat windows" - it seems like the last 2-3 runs have actually had a window during that timeframe (May 8-10). Worth keeping an eye on if nothing else. If it's a legit window, I'd want to see CIPS at least with a modest signal around then in the coming days. I'm sure in June there will be the usual few days embedded in there. By July we are getting into pulse/microburst season unless an unusually strong storm system rolls through. August is mostly the same - except that the tropical folks will probably be looking for threats. September usually brings the threat at least for some progressively stronger/more dynamic systems (but really this seems to have pushed to Oct/Nov even in recent years. 

[87storms]

We have all the makings of a total dud season. We're almost in May and we have yet to get a big event. We got lucky with that on EML-ish setup the other week, but otherwise it's been a lousy year. To be clear, I'm not advocating for damage and never do, we're just in a persistent thunderstorm doldrum.

I’ve actually been surprised by the several boomers we’ve had here in Frederick, especially in the cooler weather we’ve had. There hasn’t been much areawide action I guess, but I feel like we don’t usually start cookin until May…with June/July being the prime window.

[Rhino16]

I’ve almost forgotten spring is a severe season around here. Most of the impressive stuff I’ve seen in recent years has been during the summer. I’m excited to go west and see some real storms like I’ve never seen before.

[Kmlwx]

May 7-11 is seemingly a legitimate window to watch. GFS continues to highlight potential around then. 

[high risk]

17 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We have all the makings of a total dud season. We're almost in May and we have yet to get a big event. We got lucky with that on EML-ish setup the other week, but otherwise it's been a lousy year. To be clear, I'm not advocating for damage and never do, we're just in a persistent thunderstorm doldrum.

     I've actually been encouraged by how many thunder events I've already had this year.    We've had some years in which I haven't heard thunder by May 1.    Ultimately, our peak severe season here is roughly May 10 - June 20.    There is the occasional cold core April hail event or some strongly forced early-season wind/tor event in some years, but the norm is to not really get cranking here until after the first week of May.

[Yeoman]

16 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

I’ve almost forgotten spring is a severe season around here. Most of the impressive stuff I’ve seen in recent years has been during the summer. I’m excited to go west and see some real storms like I’ve never seen before.

I'd never consider spring as "severe season" around here. In my 45 years of living in the DC area, June/July has by far had the most severe events. Historically, DC typically has the most thunderstorm days in July with 7, followed by June with 6, and May and August with 5.

[Kmlwx]

10 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

I'd never consider spring as "severe season" around here. In my 45 years of living in the DC area, June/July has by far had the most severe events. Historically, DC typically has the most thunderstorm days in July with 7, followed by June with 6, and May and August with 5.

I'd mostly agree - though I think there are different types of events that stand out for people. I think July "pulse" storms can be SUPER intense but over smaller geographical areas. So like 90% of us may not remember a memorable event that may have been very impactful in one or two forum member's backyards. 

However - we definitely seem more prone to beefy/areawide moderate risk style events in May/June and perhaps another little peak into September. 

But really it all comes down to the "flavor" of a given season. 

[Rhino16]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

I'd mostly agree - though I think there are different types of events that stand out for people. I think July "pulse" storms can be SUPER intense but over smaller geographical areas. So like 90% of us may not remember a memorable event that may have been very impactful in one or two forum member's backyards. 

However - we definitely seem more prone to beefy/areawide moderate risk style events in May/June and perhaps another little peak into September. 

But really it all comes down to the "flavor" of a given season. 

Yeah, every storm I remember has typically been small in terms of area. I guess it’s just early for us still, which checks out looking at the various NWS Past Events pages, lots of June stuff.

[Kmlwx]

40 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Yeah, every storm I remember has typically been small in terms of area. I guess it’s just early for us still, which checks out looking at the various NWS Past Events pages, lots of June stuff.

June has some beefy events in easy memory. 2008, 2012 are "recent" ones that really raked the entire area. Just seems to be a good month or still having somewhat dynamic systems and also high heat. 

[Jebman]

I have had a massive change of heart about severe weather.

MASSIVE.

I am going to pray against major hurricanes hitting the GoMex coast and the East Coast. I hope they move fast and do minimal damage, or little to no damage at all, and that G-d is present in these weather events and that he ends up having incredible mercy on persons in the storms or on persons trying to get away from the storms. I am hoping that La Nina will not Nina correctly, we don't have hardly any hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, and this upcoming winter will be much more like a Nino Winter, with happy outcomes across the country, especially in the Mid Atlantic, as elated snow weenies fly all over filled with joy, as HECS after snow laden HECS covers DC with deep snows in 2024-2025.

[Eskimo Joe]

I'll be out of town June 28 to July 2. Book mark that for our next big event.

[WEATHER53]

7 flashes over last 15 minutes .  All reports within 5 seconds 

All

[yoda]

12z GFS says maybe next Wednesday?

@Kmlwx

[yoda]

 

 

[yoda]

 

 

[Kmlwx]

Late April 2002 is showing up on some of the analogs for next week. 

[yoda]

15 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Late April 2002 is showing up on some of the analogs for next week. 

Going to have to look that one up as I don't remember that one

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Going to have to look that one up as I don't remember that one

La Plata tornado was April 28, 2002. Analogs are showing up around 4/25 so it's not a "perfect" match - and I did look at the H5 maps - it was a MUCH sharper vort pass 

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

La Plata tornado was April 28, 2002. Analogs are showing up around 4/25 so it's not a "perfect" match - and I did look at the H5 maps - it was a MUCH sharper vort pass 

The day after it hit I explored the damage path where it crossed route 3. I met this poor girl and her dad. She had this blank stare that I'll never forget. Her dad said she was working at the Taco Bell. Their was nothing left of it except a wall and some benches that were bolted to the foundation. It cross Route 3 and tore up chunks of the highway. I saw a lot of unbelievable things. I was very humbled by what I saw. 

[toolsheds]

I have some work colleagues who were affected last week in the Elkhorn (Omaha) F3.  They sent over some amazing pictures. As much as we all think they get hit a lot.....they said that last week was the worst outbreak they experienced since the 80s

[Kmlwx]

Still a severe signal for a threat or two in the Tue-Fri timeframe. I'm not "super enthused" for our area. But stuff can sneak up on us. For now just bears watching. One of those days (or more) could perform. CIPS still has some indication. 

[yoda]

LWX AFD from this afternoon already mentioning severe weather threat next week 

 

The most active period looks to be Wednesday night through Thursday
evening. This is when the strongest mid-level trough of the week and
an associated surface cold front cross the Mid-Atlantic. Our area
should be squarely in the warm sector, with plenty of instability
and moisture available (PWATs over 1.5-1.6" possible). Some strong
to severe storms are possible Thursday as a line of storms develop
along the passing cold front. The better chances for severe storms
look to be east of the Blue Ridge where ample instability and shear
(model soundings indicate 40-50kt of bulk shear) are more likely to
be present. The biggest question mark is whether early morning cloud
cover dissipates in time to allow for better instability to develop.
Moderate to heavy rainfall is also possible areawide, which could
lead to some instances of flooding (though it is also highly
dependent on how much rain falls in the prior days.)

[Kmlwx]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

LWX AFD from this afternoon already mentioning severe weather threat next week 

 

The most active period looks to be Wednesday night through Thursday
evening. This is when the strongest mid-level trough of the week and
an associated surface cold front cross the Mid-Atlantic. Our area
should be squarely in the warm sector, with plenty of instability
and moisture available (PWATs over 1.5-1.6" possible). Some strong
to severe storms are possible Thursday as a line of storms develop
along the passing cold front. The better chances for severe storms
look to be east of the Blue Ridge where ample instability and shear
(model soundings indicate 40-50kt of bulk shear) are more likely to
be present. The biggest question mark is whether early morning cloud
cover dissipates in time to allow for better instability to develop.
Moderate to heavy rainfall is also possible areawide, which could
lead to some instances of flooding (though it is also highly
dependent on how much rain falls in the prior days.)

I'm still keeping an eye on it. Though it seems like each day could have a significant mitigating factor. Plenty of time for one day to shine through as a legit threat, though. I think the OH Valley is more of a lock than us. 

[Eskimo Joe]

On 4/30/2024 at 3:55 PM, Kmlwx said:

June has some beefy events in easy memory. 2008, 2012 are "recent" ones that really raked the entire area. Just seems to be a good month or still having somewhat dynamic systems and also high heat. 

June 2013 too

[Kmlwx]

I'm pretty under-whelemed about this entire week. I'm sure many of us will hear thunder at some point but it looks pretty meh in terms of any really exciting weather stuff rolling through. We may continue our wait for a pattern that gets stuff to this side of the mountains. Lots of the good parameters so far this spring have looked great well to the west and then died off - and bad timing (as always). 

[87storms]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

I'm pretty under-whelemed about this entire week. I'm sure many of us will hear thunder at some point but it looks pretty meh in terms of any really exciting weather stuff rolling through. We may continue our wait for a pattern that gets stuff to this side of the mountains. Lots of the good parameters so far this spring have looked great well to the west and then died off - and bad timing (as always). 

Looks like OK is the place to be today if you like wild weather:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

It'll be interesting to see how the forecast compares to actual.