2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[yoda]

Last call for severe tomorrow? MRGL risk up west of the Blue Ridge from SPC for Day 2

Morning AFD from LWX 

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
This is my seventh night shift, and I feel like this amplified
upper level pattern has changed this weekend`s forecast a little
bit each day. For Saturday, the low remains off the coast and
high pressure remains to the north. However, now there appears
to be a bit more defined low and frontal pattern that approaches
from the Great Lakes combined with a shortwave in northwest flow
aloft. The warm sector will feature highs in the lower to mid
80s and dew points in the lower to mid 60s. This will aid in
developing some instability, so showers and thunderstorms should
develop with the approaching forcing. Most models suggest decent
coverage (40-60 percent) starting midday west of the Blue Ridge
and then spreading east during the afternoon and evening. While
instability will be somewhat modest, shear of 30-40 kt is
forecast by some guidance. This could result in some organized
storms that could produce hail and localized wind damage. Right
now the greatest chance for severe weather appears to be west of
I-95, where storms are most likely during peak heating (along
with slightly higher instability). While storms should weaken
some as they push east, there does appear to be enough forcing
for showers and isolated storms to last well into the night.

 

[NorthArlington101]

Two TWs down in south-central VA. Totally missed the fact that storms were around the area (well, broadly) today.

[George BM]

Random thought.

I don't believe we been placed in anything above a SLGT risk by SPC this year. If we don't get an ENH+ through the rest of the year, then, IIRC, it would be the first time at least from 2002 onwards (this is the period that I remember) that we failed to have anything above a minimal SLGT risk issued by SPC for the immediate DC metro.

[Kmlwx]

19 minutes ago, George BM said:

Random thought.

I don't believe we been placed in anything above a SLGT risk by SPC this year. If we don't get an ENH+ through the rest of the year, then, IIRC, it would be the first time at least from 2002 onwards (this is the period that I remember) that we failed to have anything above a minimal SLGT risk issued by SPC for the immediate DC metro.

I thought there was an ENH day or two. I might be wrong though.

[Kmlwx]

Bumping because it looks like we are low odds on accumulating snow in the lowlands.