2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[yoda]

Last call for severe tomorrow? MRGL risk up west of the Blue Ridge from SPC for Day 2

Morning AFD from LWX 

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
This is my seventh night shift, and I feel like this amplified
upper level pattern has changed this weekend`s forecast a little
bit each day. For Saturday, the low remains off the coast and
high pressure remains to the north. However, now there appears
to be a bit more defined low and frontal pattern that approaches
from the Great Lakes combined with a shortwave in northwest flow
aloft. The warm sector will feature highs in the lower to mid
80s and dew points in the lower to mid 60s. This will aid in
developing some instability, so showers and thunderstorms should
develop with the approaching forcing. Most models suggest decent
coverage (40-60 percent) starting midday west of the Blue Ridge
and then spreading east during the afternoon and evening. While
instability will be somewhat modest, shear of 30-40 kt is
forecast by some guidance. This could result in some organized
storms that could produce hail and localized wind damage. Right
now the greatest chance for severe weather appears to be west of
I-95, where storms are most likely during peak heating (along
with slightly higher instability). While storms should weaken
some as they push east, there does appear to be enough forcing
for showers and isolated storms to last well into the night.