2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[09-10 analogy]

I think my location may have gusted over 50 there. I'm not too far from Friendship Village and the warning specified 60 gust potential. 

Anyhoo, it's more or less over. Quintessential quick hitter. 

[pazzo83]

not here but woah
KMDW 160234Z 20014G26KT 10SM +FC SCT029 SCT120 BKN140 OVC200 31/26 A2964 RMK TORNADO B31 5 SW MOV E AO2 PK WND 19026/0229 LTG DSNT ALQDS CONS LTGIC DSNT SW-N-NE CB DSNT W-N-NE T03110261

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

not here but woah
KMDW 160234Z 20014G26KT 10SM +FC SCT029 SCT120 BKN140 OVC200 31/26 A2964 RMK TORNADO B31 5 SW MOV E AO2 PK WND 19026/0229 LTG DSNT ALQDS CONS LTGIC DSNT SW-N-NE CB DSNT W-N-NE T03110261

That is a wild line approaching Chicago

[pazzo83]

Just now, nj2va said:

That is a wild line approaching Chicago

absolutely insane.

[KAOS]

I feel like I've seen this movie...

[KAOS]

Somehow...

[high risk]

That midwest derecho won't make it here, but the CAM signal for widespread convection Wednesday in a fairly healthy environment is quite strong in this evening's runs.   Would think we should wake up to a Day 2 SLGT in the morning.

[Kmlwx]

6 hours ago, high risk said:

That midwest derecho won't make it here, but the CAM signal for widespread convection Wednesday in a fairly healthy environment is quite strong in this evening's runs.   Would think we should wake up to a Day 2 SLGT in the morning.

And we did! 

[yoda]

37 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

And we did! 

And also Day 1

[WxUSAF]

23 minutes ago, yoda said:

And also Day 1

6z 3k NAM has a line go through this evening. Hrrr less enthusiastic as per usual.

[Kmlwx]

CSU MLP is pretty enthusiastic about the damaging wind threat tomorrow - even today but of course mainly NW. 

[high risk]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

6z 3k NAM has a line go through this evening. Hrrr less enthusiastic as per usual.

   HRRR again reduces dew points into the upper 50s this afternoon.    The fact that it's still able to generate a weak line in that environment certainly suggests that there will be forcing available to work with the "real" instability.

[WxUSAF]

Gimme the 0z FV3 hi-res plz

[alexj7]

Northern Illinois really had a crazy couple of days

https://imgur.com/a/uxQXMDS

[AmericanWxFreak]

12z 3k has less of a line segment compared to 6z and focuses a few clusters north of DC 

 

[nj2va]

40% chance of a watch per MD

[NorthArlington101]

40% chance of a watch per MD

Feel like being on the very south end of an MD never works out.

[aldie 22]

The line developing out west looks like it may have some good coverage

[Lucketts]

Has anyone been through Waterford? Town looks like a war zone after yesterday’s storm. Roads closed, dozens of trees down with chainsaws and wood chippers everywhere.

[mattie g]

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Feel like being on the very south end of an MD never works out.

100% agreed. I don't know a lot of technical weather details, but this is one thing that I've learned from simple observation over many years.

[WxUSAF]

First cell popping near Frederick 

[Kmlwx]

Was just going to post the same thing. The CU field looks to be agitating as they say. 

[AlexD1990]

STW issued

[dailylurker]

3 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

STW issued

Why lol. Clouds can't even sustain themselves. Who's at the NWS these days. I've never seen so many stupid watches lol

101 with dropping DP.

[vastateofmind]

Just now, dailylurker said:

Why lol. Clouds can't even sustain themselves. Who's at the NWS these days. I've never seen so many stupid watches lol

101 with dropping DP.

I'll be honest...I was shocked when the alert came through on the wx radio. There are literally NO clouds in the sky today...there certainly were yesterday, and I thought for sure we'd cash in on at least one quick storm last night, but no dice.

Today, it seems the main event is west of the Apps. Maybe that popcorn-y stuff out in the valley will build up and come this way...but it just doesn't feel that way today (compared to yesterday).

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Why lol. Clouds can't even sustain themselves. Who's at the NWS these days. I've never seen so many stupid watches lol

101 with dropping DP.

The CU field to the west has grown. There are some cells forming - yes they could/likely will struggle - but if a storm manages to cook it could get quite strong. DCAPE is quite strong and in the 1100-1300 range. 

[Kmlwx]

The RAP run on the SPC mess site gets DCAPE over the DC area to 1500!

[mattie g]

44 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

First cell popping near Frederick 

Always good to see some initiation *relatively* close by.

[aldie 22]

Couple cells to my west clouding up

[NorthArlington101]

I don’t know anything about severe but it’s shocking to me how these storms seem to struggle to sustain once they pop with what I’m imagining is so much fuel.