2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

You can see the line go to bed folks west of 95 it's over

Phew, I’m just to the east.  I’m saved!

[Random Chaos]

Storm over AA County looks good. I’m going to get it soon. Hopefully decent rain with it. Radar is indicating a hail core, hopefully that misses me.

[wawarriors4]

The Spotsy Storm looks rather nasty at the moment. NWS saying considerable threat with 70 mph winds and golf ball size hail possible.

[RDM]

Just came in from spending about 5 hours outside.  (nasty dp) Got a few dozen drops a couple of times only to see the cells pop just a couple miles to the east.  Ground is hard as rock - have only managed .64" for the entire month. 

[GATECH]

Brief shower, complete steam bath now.  91, DP 84 after the shower, HI 114!

[vastateofmind]

17 minutes ago, RDM said:

Just came in from spending about 5 hours outside.  (nasty dp) Got a few dozen drops a couple of times only to see the cells pop just a couple miles to the east.  Ground is hard as rock - have only managed .64" for the entire month. 

10 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Brief shower, complete steam bath now.  91, DP 84 after the shower, HI 114!

Mrs. & I spent entire afternoon on the back patio, too. And yeah, super muggy and hot, but...not bad with a fan! I took a short 15 min nap starting around 5:15 when it was still sunny...and was jolted awake by my wife a half hour ago, who was trying to cover the patio furniture in a sudden shower.   

And now, post-shower, 88/74, and like @GATECH says, definite steam bath. But hey...we got to eke out a relaxing afternoon outside. And, we got up to 103 for our high.

[Moosey2323]

All eyes on this cumulus field -- entering the higher CAPE environment...Cell on the northeast corner seemed to fire off.

[PSWired]

This one had some solid lightning associated with it. Maybe 20 knot gusts when it passed over us, but apparently it was stronger just north in Severn.

[Random Chaos]

More from that same post:

 

[MN Transplant]

12 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said:

All eyes on this cumulus field -- entering the higher CAPE environment...Cell on the northeast corner seemed to fire off.

That should be the front.  You can kind of make it out on radar.

[Roger Ramjet]

Yup, that's the front. Has already cleared extreme northwest corner of Loudoun. Humidity is already dropping.

[nj2va]

New warned cell just popped out of nowhere near Lorton. 
 

Edit: EAST of 95, per @aldie 22’s call

[Terpeast]

90, but dews dropped to 68. Drier air moving in

[southmdwatcher]

These are some rather swift developing severe storms. Wow.

[Random Chaos]

Ended with 0.50" rain, don’t think I’ll get more. And a great sunset:

 

[nw baltimore wx]

Disappointing way to end nasty heat though I did pick up nearly 3/4” last night. If I had gotten skunked for the weekend, I’d be pretty hard to tolerate right now. Sorry for those that got shut out.

[BlizzardNole]

Yeah sorry to the many who got nothing all weekend.  I feel blessed to luck into 0.6 last night.  This is going to be a rough summer with many 95-plus days and very little rainfall

[CAPE]

Getting a nice storm here now. Nothing severe, but some glorious heavy rain.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

Yeah sorry to the many who got nothing all weekend.  I feel blessed to luck into 0.6 last night.  This is going to be a rough summer with many 95-plus days and very little rainfall

It does seem like that kind of summer. Hot and dry most of the time where we routinely blow past 95 like its nothing. Doesn’t seem like the pattern will change anytime soon. 

[high risk]

MRGL for the 4th.    There will be convection in the area later in the day, but shear is really meh.    Still, with a hot, well-mixed boundary layer, a few stronger wind gusts can't be ruled out.    What's interesting is that there is a a weak consensus for this being an event for DC and points south, but there are still a few CAM solutions that get points north of DC in on the action too.

[aldie 22]

Feeling like another swing and miss day...July will be dryer than June unless things turn around. Severe drought here some of us come

[AdamHLG]

Since it’s quiet in here, thought you might like to see what my tree trunk looks like after my direct strike from June 29 with the tree removed yesterday. Pretty wild.

[yoda]

Sneaky severe threat tomorrow?

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The remnants of Beryl are expected to pass well to the north
across the Great Lakes into New England. However, some of the
enhanced synoptic flow may extend southward into the local area.
This would be able to interact with the persistent hot, humid,
and unstable thermodynamic environment. With that said, the
atmosphere is certainly ripe for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Along or just ahead of a cold front, the latest
high-resolution guidance favors a later show than usual with a
north/south band of convection pushing eastward to around I-95
by the early/mid evening. This should continue a slow but steady
march eastward to the Chesapeake Bay before exiting after
midnight. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded most
locations up to a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. The
current exceptions would be the Allegheny Mountains and far
southern Maryland. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat,
but a brief isolated tornado cannot be ruled, especially for the
more northern locations. Vertical shear is a bit stronger
coupled with decent cyclonically curved low-level hodographs.
Any threat for severe thunderstorms should halt by the overnight
hours.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Sneaky severe threat tomorrow?

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The remnants of Beryl are expected to pass well to the north
across the Great Lakes into New England. However, some of the
enhanced synoptic flow may extend southward into the local area.
This would be able to interact with the persistent hot, humid,
and unstable thermodynamic environment. With that said, the
atmosphere is certainly ripe for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Along or just ahead of a cold front, the latest
high-resolution guidance favors a later show than usual with a
north/south band of convection pushing eastward to around I-95
by the early/mid evening. This should continue a slow but steady
march eastward to the Chesapeake Bay before exiting after
midnight. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded most
locations up to a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. The
current exceptions would be the Allegheny Mountains and far
southern Maryland. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat,
but a brief isolated tornado cannot be ruled, especially for the
more northern locations. Vertical shear is a bit stronger
coupled with decent cyclonically curved low-level hodographs.
Any threat for severe thunderstorms should halt by the overnight
hours.

Yes. 

[KAOS]

At this point, I am just going to ask my magic 8 ball.

[frd]

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yes. 

Mount Holly mentions a robust dry slot,  but later in the evening and early night when storms might reach further East. Areas N and W could get severe storms earlier near the Fall Line. 

[nj2va]

3k NAM has a line of storms cutting across the whole area that pushes through later this evening. 

[yoda]

22 minutes ago, nj2va said:

3k NAM has a line of storms cutting across the whole area that pushes through later this evening. 

I just want some thunderstorms please

[yoda]

Morning update from SPC now has SLGT risk from i66 corridor in N VA and north... MRGL down to Richmond

2/0/15 for the SLGT 

[AmericanWxFreak]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Morning update from SPC now has SLGT risk from i66 corridor in N VA and north... MRGL down to Richmond 

2% tor added