2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[vastateofmind]

1 hour ago, GramaxRefugee said:

The batch that we do have is tracking toward the classic Potomac RIver - to - LaPlata  tornado alley.

The dew point up-and-down (and more down) measurements in the area weaken my confidence in anything holding together.

Winner, winner, chicken dinner....
 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
MDC017-033-262145-
/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0085.240626T2113Z-240626T2145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
513 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southern Prince Georges County in central Maryland...
  Northeastern Charles County in southern Maryland...

* Until 545 PM EDT.

* At 513 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near La Plata,
  moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Waldorf, Clinton, Fort Washington, La Plata, Andrews Air Force
  Base, Rosaryville, Marlton, Saint Charles, Accokeek, Bryans Road,
  Brandywine, Hughesville, Baden, Potomac Heights, Aquasco,
  Bryantown, Pomfret, Port Tobacco Village, Port Tobacco, and White
  Plains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service
office in Sterling Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3858 7669 3848 7701 3852 7710 3859 7713
      3880 7685 3860 7668
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 241DEG 39KT 3858 7701

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KR

[GramaxRefugee]

12 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Winner, winner, chicken dinner....
 

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
MDC017-033-262145-
/O.NEW.KLWX.SV.W.0085.240626T2113Z-240626T2145Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
513 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southern Prince Georges County in central Maryland...
  Northeastern Charles County in southern Maryland...

* Until 545 PM EDT.

* At 513 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near La Plata,
  moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Waldorf, Clinton, Fort Washington, La Plata, Andrews Air Force
  Base, Rosaryville, Marlton, Saint Charles, Accokeek, Bryans Road,
  Brandywine, Hughesville, Baden, Potomac Heights, Aquasco,
  Bryantown, Pomfret, Port Tobacco Village, Port Tobacco, and White
  Plains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service
office in Sterling Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3858 7669 3848 7701 3852 7710 3859 7713
      3880 7685 3860 7668
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 241DEG 39KT 3858 7701

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KR

Well spotted @vastateofmind Checked radar and was surprised it held together:

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like the only chance for rain in the metro is that cluster coming out of West Virginia.

[Kmlwx]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the only chance for rain in the metro is that cluster coming out of West Virginia.

Looks pretty solid IMO - for rain, maybe not severe. Pretty juicy here with dew over 70 and still 88 degrees. 

[dailylurker]

5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Looks pretty solid IMO - for rain, maybe not severe. Pretty juicy here with dew over 70 and still 88 degrees. 

I feel pretty positive too. That radar in WV is looking juicy. I'd love a stormy night with lightning lighting up the house and heavy rain pounding on the roof. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

So is there going to be a "what went wrong" writeup about this? Looks like it fizzled out completely.

[high risk]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So is there going to be a "what went wrong" writeup about this? Looks like it fizzled out completely.

Only if the main show fizzles out too, which looks unlikely.    The models had the idea of forcing for a small-scale round 1, but they put it in northern MD instead of southern.    They've been very consistent about a more widespread area of storms rolling in from the west later this evening, and that appears to be on track.     If the models are off and that craps out, then a post-mortem will be needed.

[North Balti Zen]

30 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Looks pretty solid IMO - for rain, maybe not severe. Pretty juicy here with dew over 70 and still 88 degrees. 

May be a hair south for my locale for decent rain is my fear - better for the metros maybe…

went ahead and watered the flower pots and gardens. 

[Roger Ramjet]

42 minutes ago, high risk said:

Only if the main show fizzles out too, which looks unlikely.    The models had the idea of forcing for a small-scale round 1, but they put it in northern MD instead of southern.    They've been very consistent about a more widespread area of storms rolling in from the west later this evening, and that appears to be on track.     If the models are off and that craps out, then a post-mortem will be needed.

A truly eloquent response to a stupid question. I appreciate your professionalism.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Looks pretty solid IMO - for rain, maybe not severe. Pretty juicy here with dew over 70 and still 88 degrees. 

Agreed. I just want a steady, soaking rain over several hours.

[IronTy]

Looking at the radar I don't see how anybody can call the incoming complex a miss?

[Eskimo Joe]

Front Royal just gusted to 47 kts.

[Kmlwx]

Looks like a boundary coming up through NoVA/Southern Maryland from the outgoing complex on the eastern shore. Boundary collisions seem possible. 

[Wxtrix]

under a warning until 9 pm for 60 mph radar-indicated winds. it's gusty and thundering at the moment.

[dailylurker]

12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Looks like a boundary coming up through NoVA/Southern Maryland from the outgoing complex on the eastern shore. Boundary collisions seem possible. 

Wooo.. it does look interesting. That boundary is lighting up like this joint I'm about to smoke lol

[EastCoast NPZ]

Unreal.  Rain has found its way all around me.  It's been drizzling here for 30 minutes while winds howled and thunder shook.  And my concrete driveway is barely damp.  This is as bad a nuts kick as I've experienced here.  And that is saying a lot.

[EastCoast NPZ]

30 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Looking at the radar I don't see how anybody can call the incoming complex a miss?

Oh, I can.

[Eskimo Joe]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch coming until midnight.

[Kmlwx]

Interestingly - some pretty solid gusts on velocity even on that northern part of the warnings - reflectivity is paltry looking - but winds are up there. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Still about 1,000 j/kg of DCAPE. Maybe we get a few wind reports. Watch seems justified, iMO.

[Jrlg1181]

8 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Unreal.  Rain has found its way all around me.  It's been drizzling here for 30 minutes while winds howled and thunder shook.  And my concrete driveway is barely damp.  This is as bad a nuts kick as I've experienced here.  And that is saying a lot.

Lol - I don't even want to check the old gauge when I get home... Radar has looked nice for the last couple hours.... However the last 2 times it did - 0.04 was the combined total..

Humidity did jack up late this evening so hopefully alittle bit of rain did fall...

[midatlanticweather]

Getting some pretty good gusts and finally a bit of rain. Winds probably gusted close to 40+ mph based on my weather station, but we lost power a few times and it messed up some of the top gusts. Anyways.. sustained wind for a bit in the 30 to 40mph zone and some decent rain... but not that heavy here in Purcellville. 

 

[nj2va]

So the early bust calls didn’t pan out?

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

So the early bust calls didn’t pan out?

The 00z balloon from IAD shows only 600 j/kg of SBCAPE. This is in no way a "classic" severe weather sounding.

[Eskimo Joe]

M40 mph wind gust at the Keedysville mesonet site.

[Eskimo Joe]

Leesburg gusted to 43 mph.

[Mrs.J]

Finally getting some rain here. Wind is quite light for me under this warning. 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[rjvanals]

Pretty gusty storm right now in Potomac

[Eskimo Joe]

Fairfax getting rocked. Legit 50 - 60 kt cores showing up just off the surface.