2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[Round Hill WX]

Where the hell are my extreme thunderstorms I was promised for tommorrow?!?

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, Round Hill WX said:

Where the hell are my extreme thunderstorms I was promised for tommorrow?!?

#drought 

[yoda]

Afternoon day 2 from SPC has SLGT risk from i66 corridor and north (all of MD except for S MD) for damaging winds

[09-10 analogy]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

Afternoon day 2 from SPC has SLGT risk from i66 corridor and north (all of MD except for S MD) for damaging winds

Yeah, extended the southward extent of SLGT, also introduced a dollop of ENH over NE.

Also the afternoon AFD from LWX mentioned the possibility of several rounds of storms. 

[high risk]

      I think that our best bet for severe and more widespread coverage is the scenario shown by both the 12/18Z NAM Nest.     Storms fire in the mid to late afternoon along some sort of pre-frontal trough and get organized as they sweep east, in an environment with modest shear and good downdraft CAPE.    At least some coverage of damaging winds would be likely.    A second line tries to form behind it a few hours later, but that affects areas generally east of I-95.   The HRRR goes for a couple of rounds in the early to mid evening, which would be great for rainfall potential, but the fact that the reflectivities are low and the rainfall is super light give me a lot of doubts about that scenario.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Every time I fly out of BWI there's a thunderstorm. In 2021 one delayed me, in 2022 one caused my flight to re route to go around the storm, and last year one hit while I was waiting at the gate.

I'll be flying again at 6 am on the 1st, lets see if the streak continues.

[yoda]

@high risk @Kmlwx @Eskimo Joe

Sounds like some intrigue midweek? From this afternoon's LWX AFD 

Unfortunately, high pressure quickly pushes offshore Wednesday
allowing for increased southwesterly return flow and our next
shortwave trough/front to move in. This will allow temperatures to
surge back into the mid to upper 90s with heat index values up and
over the 100 degree mark east of the Blue Ridge Wednesday afternoon.
Some uncertainty remains in regards to temperatures due to the
progression of the next shortwave trough and incumbent cold front
from the Ohio River Valley set to approach the region. 12z
synoptic/ensemble guidance suggest fairly spotty convection
Wednesday afternoon and evening with more widespread thunderstorm
activity developing across the Ohio River Valley and advancing east
toward the region Wednesday night. This is partially due in part to
the modeling trying to resolve what looks to be a complex of
thunderstorms diving south and east from the Ohio River Valley ahead
of the cold front late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. In the
event this occurs the atmosphere may be turned over reducing the
potential threat of widespread severe weather or pushing it later
into Wednesday and perhaps Thursday. Current CSU learning machine
probabilities and the SPC discussion in the Day 5 timeframe also
illustrate this potential threat/uncertainty for severe weather
during the midweek timeframe.

[Jebman]

Mid Atlantic will see some good tropical action this autumn.

[yoda]

15 hours ago, yoda said:

Afternoon day 2 from SPC has SLGT risk from i66 corridor and north (all of MD except for S MD) for damaging winds

SPC Day 1 0600 OTLK has SLGT risk from i66 corridor north including all of MD... disco below

 

   Across the Mid Atlantic, more isolated storm coverage is expected
   with southward extent. Displaced from the main lobe of ascent from
   the passing shortwave trough, convection may take longer to organize
   owing to the warmer mid-level temperatures and weaker synoptic
   forcing. Still, deep-layer shear and buoyancy are favorable for
   organized multi-cell clusters and a few supercells. Damaging winds,
   and occasional hail are the most likely threats, though a tornado or
   two will remain possible with any sustained supercell.

[high risk]

This is what we call a "difference of opinion"

[Kmlwx]

My money is on the NAM...if we have mid 50s dewpoints that would be downright comfortable. 

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

My money is on the NAM...if we have mid 50s dewpoints that would be downright comfortable. 

My thought as well. Dews are already in the 70's here near the bay. I don't see the dews dropping suddenly into the comfortable 50's. Might as well call for temps in the 70's too lol

[high risk]

10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

My money is on the NAM...if we have mid 50s dewpoints that would be downright comfortable. 

     The HRRR definitely won't be right, but even the NAM Nest lowers dew points a couple of degrees this afternoon (before a rise again later in the day).   Mid-level temps are fairly warm, so if there is some truth to the idea of mixing, but at a far lower magnitude than shown by the HRRR, that could make the difference between convection firing or not.

[87storms]

Looks like clouds are gonna be a thing near the mountains. Been 60/40 clouds to start the day here with an ocean-like breeze. Sunnier looking s/se. Sitting on my balcony doing some work atm. Yesterday was spicy, but not expecting that same level today given the current conditions.

[Paleocene]

Rooting for the 3K NAM.

[Hank Scorpio]

No warning or anything on that storm in Poolesville, but it's starting to look interesting on radar with a bit of rotation

ETA, got severe warned right after I posted

[midatlanticweather]

It is severe warned. Agree, the rotation looks interesting! 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

It is severe warned. Agree, the rotation looks interesting! 

That's not rotation, it's a collapse of the updraft resulting in a modest downburst.

[KAOS]

It is a pile of poo (technical term)... severe fail.

 

 

 

[Round Hill WX]

On 6/20/2024 at 4:37 AM, scope1 said:

Expect extreme thunderstorms Sunday with 100 degree heat. 

My man...I like like your style...4th post here, firing right out the gate about "extreme" storms from several day out. But you have a "Pro" tag...I wanna gently suggest, people here gonna eat your as$ alive going so hard without any backing. Because NO model showed any of that around here at all. Best of luck. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Wednesday could be a decent ENH day if the timing works out. The dynamics aren't too bad and there will be a respectable amount of surface instability.

[Kmlwx]

Let's hope so...I need some heavy thunderstorms to cool the house. Doesn't even have to be severe...

Our preferred HVAC company can't come out until July 11th and the AC has essentially now stopped cooling at all. Have some other recommendations I may go with instead. 

[GramaxRefugee]

51 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Let's hope so...I need some heavy thunderstorms to cool the house. Doesn't even have to be severe...

Our preferred HVAC company can't come out until July 11th and the AC has essentially now stopped cooling at all. Have some other recommendations I may go with instead. 

Oh boy, we now have an exact date for a big cool-down coming.  (More accurate than the Euro, anyway)

[Kmlwx]

12 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Oh boy, we now have an exact date for a big cool-down coming.  (More accurate than the Euro, anyway)

I'm hoping the house can "recover" a bit today. Seems like my Midea 50-pint may be on the fritz as well. It used to drain loads of water to the bucket and now it's barely anything. Those things fail every few years though - and this one is on its 3rd year I think. 

Lower humidity and 80s will be welcome today. 

There were two rooms upstairs that were clocking in at 86-88 degrees the past few nights!

[Kmlwx]

12z NAM nest has a heck of a bow echo going through Maryland for Wed evening. 

[WeatherShak]

I'm hoping the house can "recover" a bit today. Seems like my Midea 50-pint may be on the fritz as well. It used to drain loads of water to the bucket and now it's barely anything. Those things fail every few years though - and this one is on its 3rd year I think. 
Lower humidity and 80s will be welcome today. 
There were two rooms upstairs that were clocking in at 86-88 degrees the past few nights!

Same thing happened to me for a second floor AC unit. I bought two 5000 BTU window units at 150 bucks each from Lowe’s and strategically placed them on our second floor with a fan blowing and I got it down to 69° the last two nights!

[Kmlwx]

CSU-MLP is honking for Wednesday for damaging wind. LARGE area of red on the map. 

[Kmlwx]

RRFS A 12z run (at range) is solid for Wednesday PM. 

[ravensrule]

6 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Let's hope so...I need some heavy thunderstorms to cool the house. Doesn't even have to be severe...

Our preferred HVAC company can't come out until July 11th and the AC has essentially now stopped cooling at all. Have some other recommendations I may go with instead. 

My recommendation is to go with a non preferred company. Holy S**T no AC until July 11th would cause me to go postal. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Wednesday has potential