2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[midatlanticweather]

Out here in Purcellvillle, 87/67

 

 

[Terpeast]

88.5 so far, Ashburn. Yesterday’s high was 91.5

dews slow to mix out.  65

[32º]

Slight risk area update.

[high risk]

59 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

88.5 so far, Ashburn. Yesterday’s high was 91.5

dews slow to mix out.  65

      Interesting that Dulles has been at 59 for a couple of hours now.

[MN Transplant]

Severe warning out by Cumberland.  Dews in the low 60s around the metro areas.

[dailylurker]

I'm hearing a lot of thunder to my south. At least I have the thunderstorm vibe while I'm hooking up the watering system for the upcoming scorched earth pattern. 

[yoda]

17 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Severe warning out by Cumberland.  Dews in the low 60s around the metro areas.

Storm warned for ping pong ball sized hail and 60mph winds.  Also made a hard right turn.  Was moving east... Now SE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
542 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

WVC027-142200-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-240614T2200Z/
Hampshire WV-
542 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL HAMPSHIRE COUNTY...

At 541 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles east of Fort
Ashby, or 9 miles southwest of Paw Paw, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Green Spring, Levels, Higginsville, Points, and Three
Churches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

[yoda]

TOR possible tag added in new STW

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
549 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Hampshire County in eastern West Virginia...

* Until 630 PM EDT.

* At 548 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest
  of Paw Paw, moving southeast at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Capon Bridge, Slanesville, Bloomery, and Timber Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe
weather including large hail, straight line winds and possibly a
tornado. Move quickly to a safe shelter such as an interior room, a
bathroom, closet or basement.


&&

LAT...LON 3951 7846 3949 7841 3946 7835 3943 7835
      3941 7836 3938 7835 3936 7837 3935 7834
      3926 7842 3937 7860 3952 7851
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 302DEG 18KT 3944 7856

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

[yoda]

LWX radar showing 70-80 dBZ pixels

[midatlanticweather]

Pretty humid! DP is at 70! 

 

[dailylurker]

Radar doesn't look terrible 

[Interstate]

48 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Radar doesn't look terrible 

HRRR has this but dries out as it moves east 

[Interstate]

Actually pretty nice outside. 73.4/67.2 here in 21057

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

HRRR has this but dries out as it moves east 

I still don't hate the radar. 

[WEATHER53]

2”ph downpour with 0.4 “ in 10 mins 45mph gust 

[87storms]

3 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

Pretty humid! DP is at 70! 

 

Felt almost tropical out there around 8pm before the batch of rain moved in.

[vastateofmind]

1 hour ago, 87storms said:

Felt almost tropical out there around 8pm before the batch of rain moved in.

We had about 10 minutes of moderate rain about an hour ago...and it DEFINITELY feels more tropical after it's passed through. Whew.

[scope1]

Sunday sounds interesting with all that extreme heat the thunderstorms that could form could be severe. 

[IronTy]

3 hours ago, scope1 said:

Sunday sounds interesting with all that extreme heat the thunderstorms that could form could be severe. 

Similar setup to the derecho from 2012.  Hopefully we can avoid that scenario.  

[Eskimo Joe]

On 6/17/2024 at 9:00 AM, IronTy said:

Similar setup to the derecho from 2012.  Hopefully we can avoid that scenario.  

The ridge axis in 2012 was further south across Kentucky to the Carolinas. As a result, our area was in a more favorable area for EMLs to advect east, and to steer mid level impulses into said EML in our area. You can see that on the Wilmington, OH sounding (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/20120629/soundings/12062918_SNDG/). There was 6,800 SBCAPE ahead of that with a mid level lapse rate of over 8°c/km! We are almost assured to not be even in the ball park this time.

[GramaxRefugee]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The ridge axis in 2012 was further south across Kentucky to the Carolinas. As a result, our area was in a more favorable area for EMLs to advect east, and to steer mid level impulses into said EML in our area. You can see that on the Wilmington, OH sounding (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/20120629/soundings/12062918_SNDG/). There was 6,800 SBCAPE ahead of that with a mid level lapse rate of over 8°c/km! We are almost assured to not be even in the ball park this time.

Agree. And it was plenty hot that week hitting 103 on the derecho day. (the storm struck after darkfall) . (BWI records)

 

Then cooled (heh) to 95 on June 30, then real July heat until it was 104 the following week. Notice the high min of 82 also. Yucky.

We were fortunate to get our power back on around the 4th or 5th. But, many others were still out.

 

[Kmlwx]

That being said...CSU MLP has increased the threat level a bit for Sunday - 

[Kmlwx]

Since CIPS is dead in the water (site has been down for weeks) - we only get CSU MLP. 

Signal for Sunday has increased again in today's guidance. 

[high risk]

3 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Since CIPS is dead in the water (site has been down for weeks) - we only get CSU MLP. 

Signal for Sunday has increased again in today's guidance. 

 

   Sunday has some potential, I guess, although flow looks to be very light.     But I guess that there would be a localized downburst threat with the deep, well-mixed boundary layer.     One thing I don't like:   the signal seems to be focused more east of here, and I've seen too many scenarios in which storms initiate over us but don't really mature until cross the Bay.      At this point, though, I just want some freaking rain.

 

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

   Sunday has some potential, I guess, although flow looks to be very light.     But I guess that there would be a localized downburst threat with the deep, well-mixed boundary layer.     One thing I don't like:   the signal seems to be focused more east of here, and I've seen too many scenarios in which storms initiate over us but don't really mature until cross the Bay.      At this point, though, I just want some freaking rain.

 

As long as dews and temps drop to tolerable levels...

[scope1]

Expect extreme thunderstorms Sunday with 100 degree heat. 

[yoda]

17 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

As long as dews and temps drop to tolerable levels...

Highs next week are back in the upper 90s by Wednesday per LWX... but SPC made it sound like a bunch of severe MCS may start appearing next week too in the Northern Plains and moving east or SE in their Day 4-8 disco

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Highs next week are back in the upper 90s by Wednesday per LWX... but SPC made it sound like a bunch of severe MCS may start appearing next week too in the Northern Plains and moving east or SE in their Day 4-8 disco

Good. Because this heat wave isn't even to its worst and I already can't stand days on days of sunny heat waves. I swore off my window AC unit last year because no matter how well it was sealed - wasps were getting in. Regretting that now...bedroom didn't drop below 80 until after 7am this morning. 

If it's going to be this hot - I need severe to ramp up. 

[yoda]

LWX mentions severe weather quite a few times in its afternoon disco today

[yoda]

Its at the end of its run, but 00z NAM sim radar looks nice from 21z SUN to 03z MON across the region