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2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Obviously am curious what the rating will end up being. Can’t find damage photos that look significantly worse than the EF-1 damage I saw in Arlington a few years ago… or that looks too much stronger than the microburst. But very tough to tell and #notaprofessional

FWIW

 

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AdamHLG
AdamHLG

Since it’s quiet in here, thought you might like to see what my tree trunk looks like after my direct strike from June 29 with the tree removed yesterday. Pretty wild.

freestater
freestater

https://x.com/Gio_wx/status/1795246368715596105/photo/1

vastateofmind
vastateofmind

This is what it looked like about 5 minutes after the latest STW was issued, and about 2 minutes before the "really good" rain hit...   

Posted Images

high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, George BM said:

The environment that this evenings storms had. I do wonder if that dewpoint is a bit high though.

825297885_iadsounding.thumb.PNG.aafd2175655ec39872cc3d2d84614a85.PNG

    That dew point is high, but the LCLs were clearly very low, and the low-level shear was quite respectable.

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted

I think that tomorrow will be a SLGT for most of the area except western and far northern counties.    Good agreement now among the CAMs that storms will erupt along the front early tomorrow afternoon in an environment with decent shear and instability.

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ThePhotoGuy

ThePhotoGuy

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Kay said:

Main story here: rain. A LOT of rain. Water laying everywhere. Nearly 5" in the gauge no lie

Sounds bad up that way. Anne Arundel Fire Swiftwater Teams are responding to assist. 

 

Edit:

Anne Arundel, Baltimore County, Baltimore City, Lancaster County, & York County all have resources on scene/responding.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, high risk said:

I think that tomorrow will be a SLGT for most of the area except western and far northern counties.    Good agreement now among the CAMs that storms will erupt along the front early tomorrow afternoon in an environment with decent shear and instability.

Its MRGL on the early new day 1 (0600z) but LWX seems to agree with you in their morning disco

  

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front currently over the OH valley will move across our area
today, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. The
early morning showers and few embedded storms in WV and western PA
will move into the Alleghenies by sunrise. Not expecting any strong
storms, though some locally heavy rainfall is possible.

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms is going to focus
along and east of the Blue Ridge this afternoon, though a few strong
storms could also develop in the Central Shenandoah Valley. Morning
cloud cover is expected to quickly dissipate, allowing for good
diurnal heating and destabilization to take place. Temps this
afternoon reach the mid to upper 80s, with dew points still in the
lower 70s. The atmosphere remains very moist as PWATs hover around
2.0" through the afternoon.

Most of the high res models indicate a broken line of thunderstorms
developing along the front as it reaches I-81, but especially as it
moves east of the Blue Ridge where the better instability will be.
Deep layer shear around 20-30 knots should be enough to allow some
organized strong to severe convection to get going. SPC currently
has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms, though that
could be upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for areas east of
the Blue Ridge later this morning. Damaging wind gusts will be the
main threat from storms. Faster storm motion should prevent any
significant flooding issues from occurring, though there will be
quick downpours in the stronger storms.

The front and line of storms push east of I-95 by sunset, then any
lingering showers behind the front dissipate by late evening. Dry
conditions overnight as lows settle in the mid to upper 50s
along/west of I-81 and low to mid 60s to the east.
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Its rain contaminated, but 06z NAM has a TOR sounding near KDCA at 00z from what looks like a single supercell moving through DC metro on sim radar.  Not much else going on across the region besides some showers/storms south and east of DC metro by 21z

2024060606_NAM_018_38.82,-77.14_severe_m

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high risk

high risk

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, yoda said:

06z NAM Nest and 07z HRRR are kind of boring for most of the region except maybe south and east of DC

       Things definitely trended faster with the boundary overnight.   Recent HRRR runs look slightly slower again - we'll see if the storms fire just west of I-95 or just east of it

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Wow

"Stoddard said according to early estimates, 15 tornadoes touched down across the state of Maryland causing several million dollars in damage. He said authorities would have a more complete estimate later Thursday. "

https://www.wusa9.com/article/weather/severe-weather/tornado-warnings-issued-in-multiple-counties-across-maryland-montgomery-frederick-loudon/65-47ffde20-f23b-433e-b539-556a12e76eb6

 

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Kay

Kay

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, high risk said:

I think that tomorrow will be a SLGT for most of the area except western and far northern counties.    Good agreement now among the CAMs that storms will erupt along the front early tomorrow afternoon in an environment with decent shear and instability.

 

6 hours ago, yoda said:

Its MRGL on the early new day 1 (0600z) but LWX seems to agree with you in their morning disco

 

more on that in the 9:59 a.m. update 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No major changes to the previous forecast. Have worked with SPC
to see if a Slight Risk is warranted for portions of the area
east of I-95. Will continue to evaluate the 12Z guidance to
collaborate any risk updates with the 1630Z outlook. Previous
discussion follows...
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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted 
932
NOUS41 KLWX 061148
PNSLWX
DCZ001-MDZ001-003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-501>508-VAZ025>031-
036>040-050-051-053>057-501>508-526-527-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-
070000-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
748 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...Several Damage Surveys Planned for Today...

In response to the thunderstorms yesterday evening, several
surveys are planned for today to assess storm damage. Teams are
being sent out the following counties...In Virginia...Loudoun
...In Maryland...Frederick, Montgomery, Howard, Baltimore and
Baltimore City and Carroll...In West Virginia...Berkeley and
Jefferson.

$$

CJL
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NorthArlington101

NorthArlington101

Posted
Posted
Obviously am curious what the rating will end up being. Can’t find damage photos that look significantly worse than the EF-1 damage I saw in Arlington a few years ago… or that looks too much stronger than the microburst. But very tough to tell and #notaprofessional

https://x.com/kaitlynmcgrath/status/1798749953038115229?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg

High-end EF1 looks about right so far.
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