2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

Clouds...

[Eskimo Joe]

10 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Clouds...

Decent breaks to our west actually.

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Decent breaks to our west actually.

Just need the pesky lower ones east of the BR to burn off. Still early. I think we'll get some decent storms today - maybe not super severe of course...but storms. 

[WxUSAF]

3k NAM is a disaster 

[osfan24]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

3k NAM is a disaster 

Beat me to it. It's a swing and a miss.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

3k NAM is a disaster 

That would be quite hilarious to see tbh

[yoda]

12z NAM though has a pretty decent curved hodo in the DC metro at 00z tonight... so could have a weak spinny

[yoda]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1019 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather today through Thursday as a series of fronts cross
the region. Mostly dry conditions on Friday in the wake of the cold
front. A slow moving upper trough approaches the area from the Great
Lakes this weekend leading to more unsettled conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MORNING UPDATE: Muggy conditions continue this morning, with
much of the area exceeding 70 degree dew points. Flow has turned
out of the south to south-southeast ahead of an approaching
weather system that will impact the region later today. Showers
are ongoing across portions of the region, and will likely
continue to increase in coverage in the next few hours.
Instability is already decent, even amidst the abundant
cloudcvoer, as CAPE values are in the 1000-1500 J/kg range
already. So, we should be on track with the early morning
forecast, which is below.

[aldie 22]

31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

3k NAM is a disaster 

The run or the model?

[North Balti Zen]

Can I make a random observation/thought - I grew up in central and southwest OH and saw my fair share of severe weather days - and certainly continued to do so for the 11 years I was in middle and west Tennessee, but on those days in those locales way more often than not we would actually start potential severe days with clear(ish) skies and sun.  From living here in Baltimore/northern Maryland area since 2010, it is WAY more common to get to potential severe days just completely socked in with clouds. Dense overcast. Which, generally, does NOT help with getting conditions optimal for decent storms/severe.

 

Is that maybe because of where we sit between mountains and the ocean - do we just accumulate clouds on these days and can't easily clear them? Is it a function of our locale? Or am I just making stuff up/musing on things that don't have a basis in any kind of sensible fact?

[biodhokie]

54 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

The run or the model?

yes.

[WxUSAF]

Got some sun filtering through…

[87storms]

3 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Clouds...

Base state

[WxUSAF]

Strongly approve of the 16z hrrr

[George BM]

Cell north of Remington in southern Fauquier county has some very weak rotation with it. Another area of weak rotation approaching Morrisville... nothing much as of the moment just showing that there is some ll shear in place.

[WxUSAF]

Mini-cell over MBY. I’m at work though so don’t know how heavy.

[nmyers1204]

Nice cell over Frederick. Heavy downpour 

[Eskimo Joe]

LWX just Tor'd the cell over Indian Head

[AlexD1990]

TOR for Charles County

 

[AlexD1990]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

LWX just Tor'd the cell over Indian Head

ninja'd. reflectivity is uninspiring, but the velocity shows a nice little couplet.

[GATECH]

Interesting.  Seems to be heading my way, will see what happens, lots of thunder

[NorthArlington101]

Looks like a solid couplet from LWX… the nearby airport radars won’t update on RadarScope which is annoying me

[AlexD1990]

love to see whats happening on the tidal Anacostia. I bet there's a waterspout. definite lighting surge showing on radarscope

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Looks like a solid couplet from LWX… the nearby airport radars won’t update on RadarScope which is annoying me

was just thinking that, this would be a great time to have some scans. any local TV breaking in with coverage?

[AlexD1990]

couplet is going to move out of the warning polygon at this rate

[GATECH]

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Looks like a solid couplet from LWX… the nearby airport radars won’t update on RadarScope which is annoying me

Yea that's a solid cell. The CAMs yesterday evening highlighted that spot for a small UHI track so it makes sense.

[GATECH]

[Eskimo Joe]

Second cell near Eagle Harbor, PG County looks like it's trying.

[AlexD1990]

looks to be tightening up