2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[87storms]

In typical Kmlwx fashion...I'm already hunting our next window. 
CIPS has a bit of a signal at the 240hr frame (day 10). That's probably the next chance for anything. For now it seems we'll be lower humidity and a lot more stable for the time being. Not complaining as long as we can keep the 68-70+ dewpoints away. It can get humid...but only if we cash in with woo storms. 

We do pretty well in general with 80+ temps, humidity and afternoon/evening storms. It’s not a whole lot different than what Florida experiences, though they get the sea breeze effects on both sides whereas I guess we usually need a vort to add lift.

[nw baltimore wx]

Do any of the severe folks have any thoughts on this afternoon?  HoCo has high school graduations at Merriweather and there are some freak outs brewing.

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Do any of the severe folks have any thoughts on this afternoon?  HoCo has high school graduations at Merriweather and there are some freak outs brewing.

LWX updated AFD seems to think between 2pm and 10pm l

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1015 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area tonight. In the wake of
the front, high pressure will gradually build in from the Great
Lakes through Saturday, before retreating offshore early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KLWX radar loop as of 945AM shows showers tracking east along
the Alleghenies towards the Blue Ridge. To the west of the area,
additional rain showers can be seen over West Virginia and
approaching the western portions of the forecast area. Looking
at visible satellite, cloud cover is increasing as cumulus
clouds develop west of the Blue Ridge. Sunny skies can be seen
along and east of the Blue Ridge, but cloud cover is expected to
increase in these areas late this morning into the early
afternoon. 12Z CAMs are indicating a more organized line of
showers and thunderstorms, moving through the area from 2PM to
10PM, with slightly more favorable conditions. CAPE values
nearing and exceeding 500J/kg and 30-40 knots of shear are not
overly favorable, but are slightly increased from overnight.
Will continue to monitor as the previous forecast package
remains on track with late morning to afternoon convection

[Kmlwx]

I think overall coverage might be better than the past two days. But severity is likely to be less than Monday. CAMs look pretty good! 

[nw baltimore wx]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

LWX updated AFD seems to think between 2pm and 10pm l

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1015 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area tonight. In the wake of
the front, high pressure will gradually build in from the Great
Lakes through Saturday, before retreating offshore early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KLWX radar loop as of 945AM shows showers tracking east along
the Alleghenies towards the Blue Ridge. To the west of the area,
additional rain showers can be seen over West Virginia and
approaching the western portions of the forecast area. Looking
at visible satellite, cloud cover is increasing as cumulus
clouds develop west of the Blue Ridge. Sunny skies can be seen
along and east of the Blue Ridge, but cloud cover is expected to
increase in these areas late this morning into the early
afternoon. 12Z CAMs are indicating a more organized line of
showers and thunderstorms, moving through the area from 2PM to
10PM, with slightly more favorable conditions. CAPE values
nearing and exceeding 500J/kg and 30-40 knots of shear are not
overly favorable, but are slightly increased from overnight.
Will continue to monitor as the previous forecast package
remains on track with late morning to afternoon convection

Yeah, I read their updated discussion.  The hrrr and nam have showers and storms in the area between 3 and 4.  There's a graduation at 3 and another at 7 this evening.  I think if there's any thunder, they might clear the site. 

[Eskimo Joe]

16 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Do any of the severe folks have any thoughts on this afternoon?  HoCo has high school graduations at Merriweather and there are some freak outs brewing.

It's May in Maryland. Expect some thunderstorms.

[North Balti Zen]

On 5/27/2024 at 9:47 PM, high risk said:

     Jealous.    Not too far south of you, I only got 0.10"

More than I got - three drops total from the Monday night line.

[high risk]

36 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Yeah, I read their updated discussion.  The hrrr and nam have showers and storms in the area between 3 and 4.  There's a graduation at 3 and another at 7 this evening.  I think if there's any thunder, they might clear the site. 

         Yeah, there is really good CAM agreement that an organized area of showers and storms will arrive between 3 and 4pm.    I'd say that the 3pm event is in a lot of trouble.    There is much less certainty about what happens behind the main round.   There will likely be a few more storms in the area between maybe 5 and 9pm, but they'll be scattered, and trying to pinpoint timing / location is very tough.

[87storms]

Got a little cell that just moved through here (wfh today) and the sun is back out.  There does seem to be potential with that next batch (looks like it might focus more towards the 270 magnet).  TBD

[vastateofmind]

47 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Got a little cell that just moved through here (wfh today) and the sun is back out.  There does seem to be potential with that next batch (looks like it might focus more towards the 270 magnet).  TBD

I can't even believe it...storms have popped within the past hour around Manassas, due west of us, taking a direct bead on us AGAIN. Feels like it could happen, too...already 83 IMBY and I think we were forecasted to go no higher than 76 today. I'm telling ya...we score this many direct hits in a week, instead settling for the storm splits.

[AlexD1990]

Weak rotation in this cell over the Bay? Maybe a waterspout south of the bridge...

[high risk]

This thread will definitely be dead in terms of short-range threats for a bunch of days, but there is hope later next week and beyond.     The medium/extended range guidance is in pretty good agreement on troughing over the eastern U.S. starting later next week and potentially a northwest flow pattern beyond that.    I'm cherry picking a bit here, but this forecast is fairly representative of the global ensembles for later next week:

 

   Yeah, a further west trough axis would work a bit better, there is no point in worrying about details at this range.    The bottom line is that there is agreement on a more interesting pattern here after the gorgeous stretch of weather at the end of this week into early next week.    CPC's 8-14 day temperature and precip progs clearly reflect an eastern-based trough.

 

 

[yoda]

SPC did make a mention in its Day 4-8 OTLK as @high risk described above in his post

 

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024

   Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range models continue to indicate that flow across the
   eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America may undergo
   substantive amplification during the middle to latter portion of
   next week.  This is forecast to include building larger-scale
   ridging across much of the U.S. and Canadian Pacific coast through
   the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies.  

   Within an initially zonal regime preceding this evolution, guidance
   continues to suggest that modest surface cyclogenesis may accompany
   the eastward progression of a low-amplitude short wave trough, from
   the lee of the northern Rockies through the middle Missouri and
   northern Great Plains Red River Valley vicinity Sunday through
   Sunday night.  Moderately large CAPE may develop beneath a plume of
   elevated mixed-layer air overspreading much of the Great Plains,
   from the developing cyclone southward.  Strongest forcing for ascent
   and shear may focus the most substantive convective development from
   near the surface low/dryline across central South Dakota by late
   Sunday afternoon northeastward through central and southern
   Minnesota by late Sunday afternoon and evening.  This may include a
   few supercells initially, before convection consolidates and grows
   upscale into an organizing cluster.  It currently appears that
   sustained thunderstorm development may be much more isolated
   southward along the dryline through the remainder of the Great
   Plains.

   A considerably stronger short wave trough may dig downstream of the
   amplifying ridge by the early to middle portion of next week.  This
   may be accompanied by strong surface cyclogenesis, and perhaps the
   evolution of a broad deep mid-level low centered over the Upper
   Midwest/Great Lakes region by late next week.  This might be
   accompanied by a risk for strong to severe storms spreading from
   portions of the northern and central Great Plains as far east as
   portions of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast by late next week. 
   However, due to still large model spread, which increases by early
   next week, severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 15
   percent, but this could change in later outlooks for this period.

   ..Kerr.. 05/30/2024

[Kmlwx]

Impressive to see SPC already honking about it potentially. We'll see how things shake out as we get beyond this stretch of beautiful weather. Loving the lower humidity. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Northwest flow is sneaky. This time of year it can bring decent hailers, some nice wet microburst, and picturesque structure.

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Northwest flow is sneaky. This time of year it can bring decent hailers, some nice wet microburst, and picturesque structure.

And nice MCSs

[midatlanticweather]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

And nice MCSs

And the d thing that cannot be named. 

 

[Kmlwx]

CIPS has a signal at around day 7/8 

[KAOS]

2024 Severe Seasonal Forecast....

I hope I am wrong.

 

[high risk]

It's not a great setup, but in the department of beggars being unable to be choosers, Wednesday seems to have potential to be a MRGL risk day here.

[George BM]

Fun times 16 years ago this moment.

Let's do this again soon.

[Kmlwx]

The 0z NAM nest kind of goes a little crazy over the metro area tomorrow afternoon lol

[yoda]

Well that's a surprise to see on the new Day 1... MRGL yes (good call @high risk) but a chance of a tornado or 2?  

[yoda]

Synoptic/Mesoscale Setup: A mid-level shortwave through will move
across the area today, bringing around 20-30 knots of deep-layer
shear. Some of the high res models indicate higher shear values are
possible during the peak convective window this afternoon/evening.

Instability will be limited for the first half of the day as
widespread cloud cover is slow to dissipate this morning. Increasing
southerly winds within the boundary layer should be strong enough to
break the inversion, leading to sufficient heating/instability this
afternoon. Given dew points in the lower 70s east of the Blue Ridge,
though mid-level lapse rates are meager, there should be at least
1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE.

Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s,
though mid 80s are possible along/south of I-66 if cloud cover can
break earlier in the afternoon.

Severe Threat: SPC has added a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of
severe storms for most areas along/east of I-81 and north of I-64.
Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat, and a tornado or two is
also possible. Saturated soundings, with a deep warm cloud layer and
modestly steep low-level lapse rates (7-8 C/km) favor wet
microbursts in any organized line segments/clusters of storms. The
tornado threat is evident in the favorably curved low-level
hodographs in the model soundings, though it is limited by weaker
shear and lower instability.

[Kmlwx]

I'm interested in today despite it being a marginal threat. Some of the CAMs have rolled some fairly impressive sim radar returns over the metro area later on. Might even be more than one round of storms for some! 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

I'm interested in today despite it being a marginal threat. Some of the CAMs have rolled some fairly impressive sim radar returns over the metro area later on. Might even be more than one round of storms for some! 

We rarely do multiple rounds well.

[Kmlwx]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We rarely do multiple rounds well.

Well certainly not for severe - but sometimes we can get a strong(ish) round and then some follow-up heavy rainers that keep dropping rainfall. 

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Well certainly not for severe - but sometimes we can get a strong(ish) round and then some follow-up heavy rainers that keep dropping rainfall. 

I'm excited about multiple rounds of lightning. I took off today (I'm the boss) in hopes of catching a couple shows this afternoon. I like Bacon Ridge in Crownsville for a viewing spot. 

[NorthArlington101]

We rarely do multiple rounds well.

Only one I remember off the bat that exceeded expectations on multiple rounds (though my memory sucks with these) is July 1, 2021. Localized excitement, but the storm that produced a tornado in DC and Arlington was the third of the day, if I recall right.

[Kmlwx]

From a flooding standpoint - June 2006 was *extremely* impressive - especially given the absence of a tropical system interacting with a front.