2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[NorthArlington101]

Tor possible tag added on the SWS

Seeing a decent looking wall cloud (or, looks like a wall cloud) from some of the local chasers.

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the Martinsburg cell is the only show today. Just not enough surface instability.

We'll see... as @CAPE noted, 18z NAM NEST has a severe line moving through at 23z

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Seeing a decent looking wall cloud (or, looks like a wall cloud) from some of the local chasers.

Sauce?

[NorthArlington101]

Sauce?

https://x.com/lopwx/status/1795186188237611014?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
416 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Washington County in north central Maryland...
  Northwestern Frederick County in north central Maryland...

* Until 515 PM EDT.

* At 415 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near
  Shepherdstown, moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Frederick, Thurmont, Harry Grove Stadium, Ballenger Creek,
  Boonsboro, Braddock Heights, Mount Aetna, Mount Lena, San Mar,
  Clover Hill, Wolfsville, Linganore-Bartonsville, Myersville,
  Keedysville, Rohrersville, Burkittsville, Gapland, Utica, Bolivar,
  and Lewistown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning
are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is
one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for north central
Maryland.

&&

LAT...LON 3939 7769 3958 7770 3964 7739 3937 7736
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 264DEG 18KT 3948 7778

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

[yoda]

78/71 at DCA at 4pm... 83/69 at IAD

Winds from the south at 10-15 mph

[Stormchaserchuck1]

They always overestimate instability parameters, and underestimate sunlight and actual heating. 

Last year severe wx started on June 24th, and July was active. This Spring is kind of following the same trend as last year so maybe July will be our severe wx month again.. 

[Kmlwx]

26 minutes ago, yoda said:

We'll see... as @CAPE noted, 18z NAM NEST has a severe line moving through at 23z

I think that may be the NAM nest showing the Frederick storm but initiates it too far south. Notice how it barely has anything where that cell is. We just didn't warm up enough it seems. Will hold out for late developing cells/lines - but I haven't even gotten out of the 70s. Up to 77 now (high of the day). Dewpoints are great...just needed some more insolation. 

[WeatherShak]

Lower level clouds - guesstimating at about 1000 feet visually - are ripping out of the south west


.

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like a complete bust unless something changes right quick.

[Kmlwx]

There is a boundary moving N and W from the DC are that *might* be something to root for to trigger something else. You can see it on the Meso East floater 1 sector visible satellite and also very slightly on the TIAD terminal radar. 

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like a complete bust unless something changes right quick.

Just made a post - not sure what created the boundary - maybe differential heating from the clouds earlier...or maybe a river wind or something. Seems to far W to be a bay breeze. If the Fredericksburg cell can throw off an outflow - and these two meet up it could at least salvage consolation thunder. But yes - this looks terrible. 

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Just made a post - not sure what created the boundary - maybe differential heating from the clouds earlier...or maybe a river wind or something. Seems to far W to be a bay breeze. If the Fredericksburg cell can throw off an outflow - and these two meet up it could at least salvage consolation thunder. But yes - this looks terrible. 

Saw that. It's our hail Mary at this point. Just not enough sun and the convection of the Carolinas is probably robbing us somewhat as well.

[Kmlwx]

Little cell popping in Southern Maryland now. Radar looks largely dead. The fat lady is warming up in the wings. 

[jewell2188]

Looks like a bust area wide. 

[nmyers1204]

Damnit I lathered sunscreen based on this forum’s excitement…now I’m toast

[87storms]

Getting rocked here.  Not a lot of T&L, but wind driven torrents.  Probably the heaviest burst of rain I've seen this year.

[Eskimo Joe]

Storm over Frederick appears to be gusting out. 

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Storm over Frederick appears to be gusting out. 

Last year was a dud up here, but so far this year Frederick has been kind of a magnet.  That was an aggressive little cell that just came through.

[high risk]

HRRR has been consistent with a few cells forming over Montgomery County and vicinity after 6pm and then affecting DC and points north as a line segment.     It may be wrong, but it's sticking to its guns.

The supercell composite has looked good to the south and southeast of here all day, so I understand the tornado watch down there.    I think that SPC just decided to go with one big tornado watch instead of a tornado watch for southern VA and eastern NC and a severe box for the DC area..

[Scraff]

Sittin and chillin and waiting for my severe on the deck. Puhleeeease. It’s nice out here. LOL. Good breeze. Good beers. Firing up the grill momentarily. Rough afternoon of weather.  Either way, plenty of thunderstorms in our future I’m sure. I’m cool with this bust. Cracking some Idiom Kindred Spirits with some Bob Marley jamming. 

[Rhino16]

3 minutes ago, high risk said:

HRRR has been consistent with a few cells forming over Montgomery County and vicinity after 6pm and then affecting DC and points north as a line segment.     It may be wrong, but it's sticking to its guns.

The supercell composite has looked good to the south and southeast of here all day, so I understand the tornado watch down there.    I think that SPC just decided to go with one big tornado watch instead of a tornado watch for southern VA and eastern NC and a severe box for the DC area..

That was what I was wondering earlier. I guess if it’s close / uncertain enough they just do one big one. 

[Amped]

Setup trended less favorable as we got closer. More progressive troff weaker low and multiple waves. Wondering if we'll even see anymore rain.

[Mrs.J]

17 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Last year was a dud up here, but so far this year Frederick has been kind of a magnet.  That was an aggressive little cell that just came through.

North Fred Co seems to get most of it usually. We are currently looking at clouds down here. 

[high risk]

10 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

That was what I was wondering earlier. I guess if it’s close / uncertain enough they just do one big one. 

 Yeah, the art of figuring out which type of watch, where / when to place them, and make them connect is referred to as "boxology" by the SPC forecasters.

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

Setup trended less favorable as we got closer. More progressive troff weaker low and multiple waves. Wondering if we'll even see anymore rain.

I was banking on rain this weekend. My area has had no beneficial rain in a while. This looks like a dude. Not even any rain.

[midatlanticweather]

Mesoscale Discussion 1021
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

   Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina and eastern
   Virginia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 335...

   Valid 272049Z - 272215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 335 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 335.
   Large hail and damaging gusts remain a concern. The best chance for
   tornadoes would be closer to the coastline ahead of ongoing storms.

   DISCUSSION...Multicells and transient supercells persist across
   northeastern NC and are moving northeast toward southeast VA. At the
   moment, these are the most robust storms across eastern NC/VA,
   though an increase in thunderstorm coverage is possible later this
   afternoon. Given widespread 1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40+ kts of
   effective bulk shear, most thunderstorms should maintain a
   multicellular or transient supercell mode through the afternoon.
   While a tornado or two cannot be ruled out anywhere across Tornado
   Watch 335 in eastern NC/VA, the best chance for tornadoes appears to
   be far southeast VA/northeast NC closer to the coast, where backed
   low-level winds are contributing to slightly larger low-level
   hodographs.

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
538 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  South central Carroll County in north central Maryland...
  Northwestern Howard County in central Maryland...
  Northern Montgomery County in central Maryland...
  East central Frederick County in north central Maryland...

* Until 615 PM EDT.

* At 538 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near New Market,
  or 9 miles east of Harry Grove Stadium, moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Eldersburg, Mount Airy, Sykesville, New Market, Libertytown,
  Monrovia, Winfield, Lisbon, Gaither, Watersville, Poplar Springs,
  Woodbine, and Unionville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning
are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is
one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for central and
north central Maryland.

&&

LAT...LON 3937 7728 3949 7726 3949 7694 3930 7701
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 280DEG 21KT 3942 7723

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

 

[Mrs.J]

And a nice healthy cell popped up right over me. Nice thunder and soaking rain. 

[yoda]

Looks like it's trying again near Mount Airy