2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[Kmlwx]

25 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Definitely getting brighter outside the last few minutes. 

Of course that band of thicker clouds rolls in as soon as I say that. We'll see if that more substantial clearing behind can perform. Starting to get well into the afternoon. I'm still stuck in the mid 70s...dewpoint is 71+ though...so at least it's moist.

[high risk]

Convection now firing in the eastern WV panhandle, very consistent with recent HRRR forecasts.    If there is going to be a show, and again, it would mainly be DC and points northward, this is the start of it.   I still think that the lack of heating precludes a much more significant event, but the HRRR says that storms will be strong if we can get to near 80.

[weatherCCB]

79/70 here

sun breaking thru

[87storms]

Convection now firing in the eastern WV panhandle, very consistent with recent HRRR forecasts.    If there is going to be a show, and again, it would mainly be DC and points northward, this is the start of it.   I still think that the lack of heating precludes a much more significant event, but the HRRR says that storms will be strong if we can get to near 80.

Don’t call it a comeback…sun is showing out again in Frederick.

[yoda]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
310 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A potent cold front will track through the Mid-Atlantic this
evening and into the overnight. A secondary cold front moves in
by mid-week before high pressure builds in by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A potent cold front is set to push through the Mid-Atlantic this
evening and into tonight, bringing severe weather to the area. With
a warm and humid air mass in place today, moderate instability
(SBCAPE 1500-2500 J/kg) is expected with highest values along and
east of I-95, especially in northeast Maryland. As of 2PM, a
few showers are moving through the forecast area along and east
of I-95 with skies beginning to clear along and west of the Blue
Ridge. As the rain showers move out of the area and clearing
skies move eastward, instability is expected to increase this
afternoon and into this evening. Convective initiation is
expected in the next hour or so with some storms already
beginning to pop up.

Once convection initializes, damaging wind gusts continue to be
the primary hazard type with strengthening wind fields and
destabilization of the atmosphere. Large hail is possible in
discrete cells along with an isolated tornado threat with a
slight curve in model hodographs.

PW values of 1.5-2 inches, with isolated pockets of 2"+ in NE
MD, will lead to isolated instances of heavy rainfall. WPC has
the northeastern portions of the area in a slight risk for
excessive rainfall. Adequate storm motion should limit flooding
risk, but any training or back building could lead to an
increased hydro threat.

[Eskimo Joe]

Keedysville and Clarksville mesonet sites support the clearing in visible satellite. The solar radiation spiking quickly.

[CAPE]

[yoda]

Tornado Watch up until 11pm for the region 

[NorthArlington101]

Just got the tornado watch notification. Little surprised.

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Tornado Watch up until 11pm for the region 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 335
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   340 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Central and Eastern Maryland
     Central and Eastern North Carolina
     Eastern and Northern Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until
     1100 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop through the
   afternoon across the region. Damaging winds are expected to be the
   most common risk, but some hail is possible, and a moist environment
   and strong atmospheric winds will also support a tornado risk.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 40 miles north northeast of Baltimore
   MD to Jacksonville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
   associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 333...WW 334...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 24030.

   ...Guyer

[Scraff]

Wasn’t expecting the Tor Watch. Welp, better get down to the beer fridge to protect it. 

[yoda]

 

[NorthArlington101]

Better dynamics definitely seem to be down in the Tidewater area. Feel like no sunshine here bodes poorly for interesting severe.

[yoda]

40/20 tor probs is pretty decent 

[AdamHLG]

After nailing the “friends and family” forecast all day, now I’m getting texts that I was wrong and were “going to get tornados”. SMH. This is a thankless hobby.

[CAPE]

Filtered sun earlier has given way to more clouds and another brief heavy downpour here. Hopefully this is it and some legit clearing occurs after this passes by.

I just want a nice clear shot of a shelf with some gusty, cool downdraft wind. Nothing severe. Been a couple years.

[aldie 22]

Full on sun here

[WxUSAF]

Little bit of sun in Columbia. Car thermometer says 81

[yoda]

Cell near MRB looks a little interesting 

[dailylurker]

The sun is starting to break out here. As soon as it did the SE winds really ramped up. It definitely feels warmer than it did 20 minutes ago. I'm ready for my wedge. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Temp spiked at home from 70° to 77° in under 20 min, but the convective temp is 89°. We're going to come up short in that arena, if our clouds just broke 2 or 3 hours earlier this would've been a great setup.

It's not going to take much.

[CAPE]

A bit odd, but makes sense why SPC went with a T-storm watch here(mid upper shore) and a Tornado watch just north(Cecil) and also for the lower shore. Very little sun today with these showers rolling through.

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Cell near MRB looks a little interesting 

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
349 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  South central Washington County in north central Maryland...
  Northeastern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...
  Northeastern Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...

* Until 430 PM EDT.

* At 348 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Martinsburg,
  moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Martinsburg, Shepherdstown, Saint James, Berkeley, Keedysville,
  Sharpsburg, Fairplay, Antietam, Winebrenners Cross, Martinsburg
  Airport, and Moler Crossroads.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning
are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is
one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

 

[NorthArlington101]

Cell near MRB looks a little interesting 

Think that’ll earn a TW shortly with the kink just west of MRB.

[CAPE]

18z 3km NAM has a nice bowing segment moving over and just south of the DC area.

[yoda]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Think that’ll earn a TW shortly with the kink just west of MRB.

It's trying to hook, though that shower just south of it may cause an issue or be ingested

[CAPE]

Cloudy and 72 here.

[NorthArlington101]

It's trying to hook, though that shower just south of it may cause an issue or be ingested

I’ve seen some convincing dialogue on Twitter that mergers help initiate rotation. Though that may apply more to prime environment Great Plains storms as opposed to the slop in our mountains lol

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Think that’ll earn a TW shortly with the kink just west of MRB.

Tor possible tag added on the SWS

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like the Martinsburg cell is the only show today. Just not enough surface instability.