2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[yoda]

5/15/15 remains on 1300z SPC OTLK 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, hstorm said:

We have a whole summer of storms ahead. No reason to root for severe on Memorial Day when so many of us have plans to be outside. I’m hoping for dry, peaceful, and maybe even a few peeks of sun. 

We're staring down another ho hum severe season. It's almost June and we've yet to have a decent event.

[yoda]

1 fatality confirmed in yesterday's severe weather in Nelson County 

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1011 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 E Norwood             37.64N  78.72W
05/26/2024                   Nelson             VA   Law Enforcement

            *** 1 Fatal *** Nelson County Sheriff confirmed one
            person died when thunderstorm winds downed a tree limb
            onto the vehicle they were sheltering in near Wingina


&&

Event Number LWX2403171

 

[North Balti Zen]

3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I’d like some rain…

We keep missing up here all of a sudden. We do extremes lately up my way - either can’t miss for weeks or miss everything for weeks.

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

We keep missing up here all of a sudden. We do extremes lately up my way - either can’t miss for weeks or miss everything for weeks.

In all that cloudy dreary period up until the last week, we were above normal for rain, but not drastically so. And with a summer sun angle, things can dry out quick in a 7-10 day period. Up until just a couple days ago, globals were showing widespread 1-3” of rain this weekend. I’m at like 0.1” so far. 

[North Balti Zen]

Yeah - shocked at how fast it got relatively dry after the weeks of gloom and wet.

[nw baltimore wx]

38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

In all that cloudy dreary period up until the last week, we were above normal for rain, but not drastically so. And with a summer sun angle, things can dry out quick in a 7-10 day period. Up until just a couple days ago, globals were showing widespread 1-3” of rain this weekend. I’m at like 0.1” so far. 

You’re getting some rain now, yes?

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

You’re getting some rain now, yes?

Little bit. Radar way more interesting than ground truth. 

[North Balti Zen]

24 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

You’re getting some rain now, yes?

Three drops up here. Radar looks meager and a miss for whatever this is and looks like a miss later this afternoon with round 2. Precip chances went from 90% from yesterday’s forecast to 45% currently.

[high risk]

I'm going to toss the HiResWs (which don't assimilate ongoing rain) and focus on the NAM Nest and HRRR.    Both show some limited airmass recovery this afternoon generally north of DC and generate at least a few storms across northern and central MD towards dinner time.      Surface winds are veered, so unless a storm finds an outflow boundary, the tornado threat is likely lower, but IF we can get heating, the shear would support at least isolated instances of damaging wind.

[Kmlwx]

Mesoscale discussion issued. 80 percent chance of a watch. 

[midatlanticweather]

[vastateofmind]

11 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I don't know...just looking/watching/observing here in my little corner of the world and I'm not feeling it. I could totally be wrong...like on Friday night, when we got the best lightning show of the past five years.  

[yoda]

I'm going to guess severe thunderstorm watch up north and tornado watch in the southern part

[yoda]

23 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

esoscale Discussion 1013
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1053 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

   Areas affected...northern VA into parts of MD...DE...
   central/western PA...NJ...and NY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 271553Z - 271800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...One or more watches will likely be needed in the next 1-2
   hours. Damaging gusts, large hail and a couple of tornadoes are
   possible with bands of thunderstorms through early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Modest destabilization is occurring from south to north
   ahead of an eastward-advancing front at midday. Stronger instability
   will generally remain across the PA/NJ vicinity southward, where
   dewpoints are in the upper 60s F, and decrease with northward extent
   into central NY. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear supporting
   organized bands of convection is already in place across the region.
   A mixed mode of supercells and bows is expected as convection
   increases in coverage after 18z. While deep-layer flow will largely
   remain unidirectional, some curvature of low-level hodographs and
   backed low-level winds is evident in a corridor from eastern VA into
   eastern PA/western NJ. A couple of tornadoes could occur in this
   area. Otherwise, damaging gusts and hail will be the primary hazard
   through this afternoon/early evening. One or more watches will
   likely be needed in the next couple of hours as stronger
   destabilization occurs and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads
   the region.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...
   LWX...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1013.html

 

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'm going to guess severe thunderstorm watch up north and tornado watch in the southern part

           As you noted in the MD you posted, though, the backed low-level winds are in the eastern part of that entire MD area.   It's not a north-south thing.    Over the next few hours, low-level winds in the DC area up through central PA and west-central NY are clearly progged to veer, which would make the tornado threat very low (unless there is some interaction with a leftover boundary).   Over the Delmarva and NJ up through eastern NY, the hodographs may indeed support a low-end tornado threat.       

           Of course, initiation has already happened over central PA, while we're going to have to wait a while in the DC metro area (and I as noted earlier,  the HRRR only likes areas from DC to the north, and not until dinner time), so I have no clue how SPC will issue boxes today.

[yoda]

1630z OTLK from SPC keeps the 5% tor for the BR and east in the LWX CWA... along with 15 wind and 15 hail

[Rhino16]

13 minutes ago, yoda said:

The early afternoon 1630z OTLK from SPC still isn't out yet

It’s there now. Probably easier to see it from College of duPage. I don’t understand why they kept the 5% all the way down into NC, I think even in this morning’s update, that was kinda questionable.

edit: guess the sun’s been out more down there, and shear is better so it makes sense. 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Rhino16 said:

It’s there now. Probably easier to see it from College of duPage. I don’t understand why they kept the 5% all the way down into NC, I think even in this morning’s update, that was kinda questionable.

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

   Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
   STATES AND PARTS OF TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected today across parts of the lower
   Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast States. More isolated
   severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across
   much of central and east Texas, as well as southwest Oklahoma and
   the mid/upper Mississippi Valley.

   ...Eastern States/Southeast...
   An initial ongoing focus for severe potential is across Georgia near
   an outflow boundary and in the wake of an MCV across the Carolinas
   Piedmont as of midday. Regional WSR-88D VWPs are sampling
   supercell-favorable wind profiles across this region, with
   additional storm development/intensification as the air mass
   modifies/destabilizes across Georgia/South Carolina/southeast
   Alabama. Another favored zone of severe storm development, including
   supercells, may occur across eastern North Carolina/southeast
   Virginia this afternoon near, or in the immediate wake of, the MCV,
   in the presence of a very moist and strongly unstable boundary
   layer.

   Farther north, a broad north-south zone of severe thunderstorm
   potential exists near, or more so in the immediate lee of, the
   Appalachians. For additional details, see Mesoscale Discussion 1013.
   Sufficient deep-layer shear and buoyancy will support potential for
   both supercells and organized multicells in lines or clusters.
   Damaging winds are expected to be the most common risks, but large
   hail is also possible, along the potential for a couple of tornadoes
   regionally.

 

[aldie 22]

Based on my new superstition I should go to bed now if I want it to rain later

[weatherCCB]

Looks like some clearing out west. Have to wait and a

see if that continues.  Cloudy here still

[NorthArlington101]

Honestly, this looks like tornado damage from Culpeper last night. Eating my crow now!

https://x.com/harrythomvi/status/1795126961896927506?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg

[yoda]

Winds are pretty much still from the south on the 1pm obs across the region

77/69 S12 at DCA is their 1pm observation 

[Kmlwx]

Clouds, clouds, and more clouds here in Colesville. 

[Eskimo Joe]

36 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Honestly, this looks like tornado damage from Culpeper last night. Eating my crow now!

https://x.com/harrythomvi/status/1795126961896927506?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg

Never doubt the CC drop.

[yoda]

Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for NJ/NY/PA until 9pm

[Kmlwx]

Definitely getting brighter outside the last few minutes. 

[vastateofmind]

43 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Honestly, this looks like tornado damage from Culpeper last night. Eating my crow now!

https://x.com/harrythomvi/status/1795126961896927506?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg

It surely does. And I'll never stop being astounded at the randomness of tornado damage...with one property (to the left) having little to no damage, while the property to the right looks like it had a mini A-bomb dropped on it premises.   

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Definitely getting brighter outside the last few minutes. 

Yep, same here...sun working hard to break through, and it looks on the GOES satellite feed like there may be more substantial breaks heading this way from the valley.

[Hank Scorpio]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Never doubt the CC drop.

And the location named in that tweet lines up pretty darn close to the best frame in the velocity scan from last night

[wawarriors4]

15 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Definitely getting brighter outside the last few minutes. 

Temp is up to 81 here, from 76 not too long ago