2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[George BM]

Brief small CC drop with the Tornado warned storm north of Culpeper.

[midatlanticweather]

Others called out that there was a brief debris ball on CC. I dunno! we will see. 

 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, George BM said:

Small CC drop near Culpeper with the Tornado warned storm.

Maybe at 9:31 & 9:35 on RadarScope?

 

[NorthArlington101]

Brief small CC drop with the Tornado warned storm north of Culpeper.

I’m skeptical personally… didn’t look like it lined up with the rotation, which looked very broad. If any eventual survey comes up with something, I’ll eat my words, though!

[Hank Scorpio]

This frame was interesting too...seemed to tighten up for just a minute

[NorthArlington101]

This frame was interesting too...seemed to tighten up for just a minute

I’ll admit it, that’s better than I thought it looked. Who knows.

It is also possible for debris to get lofted with strong winds in general. I did notice the “TDS” and circled it in RadarScope and thought it aligned more with a dead zone on radar than the circulation, but this could be one of the many reasons I don’t work for LWX!

Edit: that said if LWX thought it was on the ground recently I doubt they’d’ve dropped the warning

[87storms]

Wv imagery is bubbling…gotta be some high cloud tops in there.

[clskinsfan]

Meh. Disappointing out here in the Shen Valley. I hope you all to the east get better. Tame AF here. 

[Rhino16]

12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Meh. Disappointing out here in the Shen Valley. I hope you all to the east get better. Tame AF here. 

In the northern neck, not expecting it to make it this far. Was looking forward to tomorrow but I feel this may have tamped it down a bit. We’ll have to see.

edit: ah, I see that scenario was questioned earlier too.

[Kmlwx]

The Panhandle of WV part of the line looks better now. I still expect some precip IMBY but don't think I'll see severe. Heck...even lightning may be limited if any. Going about as advertised so far. 

[high risk]

Still a ton of uncertainty in the 00Z CAM suite.    Several solutions fire convection late morning / midday.

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

Still a ton of uncertainty in the 00Z CAM suite.    Several solutions fire convection late morning / midday.

Always amazing to see the complexities of severe weather. We all like to point out how "unstable" the models are sometimes in the winter...I'd argue this is a much better example. Overall, the models seem to do a pretty good job with synoptics...smaller scale stuff like storms we definitely haven't nailed down in numerical modeling yet...just too small!

I feel like even given the above...this is the most "confused" I've been heading into an event in some time. Usually we at least have some semblance of agreement on a line/storms vs spottier coverage or even a complete miss. 

I really could still...(even like 18 hours out!) argue for any solution spanning nothing to a fairly area-wide severe weather episode (not talking about another June 2012 of course!)

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, high risk said:

Still a ton of uncertainty in the 00Z CAM suite.    Several solutions fire convection late morning / midday.

Best to wait until 10 am  - 12 pm tomorrow. We'll have everything lined up then. For now, I remain cautiously optimistic.

[clskinsfan]

14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The Panhandle of WV part of the line looks better now. I still expect some precip IMBY but don't think I'll see severe. Heck...even lightning may be limited if any. Going about as advertised so far. 

We got great precip. Actually 2 days in a row. No need to water the garden for a while. Wanted some high winds. But nope. Not this time. 

[Eskimo Joe]

The Keedysville mesonet site in Washington County, just north of Antietam Battlefield, only gusted to M36 mph just a minute ago. Pretty clear there is a surface inversion developing that is prohibiting the winds aloft from getting to the surface.

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Always amazing to see the complexities of severe weather. We all like to point out how "unstable" the models are sometimes in the winter...I'd argue this is a much better example. Overall, the models seem to do a pretty good job with synoptics...smaller scale stuff like storms we definitely haven't nailed down in numerical modeling yet...just too small!

I feel like even given the above...this is the most "confused" I've been heading into an event in some time. Usually we at least have some semblance of agreement on a line/storms vs spottier coverage or even a complete miss. 

I really could still...(even like 18 hours out!) argue for any solution spanning nothing to a fairly area-wide severe weather episode (not talking about another June 2012 of course!)

Strong convection, especially nocturnal, will often persist long than what the CAMs have. April 26-27, 2011 is a perfect example of this. There were supercells from Alabama that tracked into South Central PA and still dropped tornadoes along the way. 

[WEATHER53]

Gust to 51 hgr

[yoda]

Morning 0600z disco for us from SPC... currently 5/15/15

..Mid-Atlantic...
   A moist air mass is currently in place across the Mid-Atlantic with
   upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints observed from the Carolinas into MD. 6-7
   K/km lapse rates are also noted in 00 UTC soundings, which should
   support 2000-2500 MLCAPE by mid-afternoon across the region. The
   approach of the upper wave should promote troughing in the lee of
   the Appalachians. It remains unclear whether convection will
   primarily be focused along the lee trough or along a residual
   outflow boundary emanating from the ongoing MCS to the west.
   Regardless, sufficient buoyancy and deep-layer shear will support
   organized convection, including the potential for supercells with an
   attendant risk for large hail, severe wind, and a few tornadoes if
   sufficient low-level SRH along and ahead of the boundary can be
   realized, as hinted by some model solutions.

 

[yoda]

Morning AFD from LWX 

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
403 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A warm and humid air mass will persist through today. A cold
front will push through the area tonight. A secondary cold
front moves in by mid-week before high pressure builds in by
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Some notable changes were observed in the latest guidance early
this morning and it is mainly to delay convective initiation
this afternoon and push back the timing of the frontal passage
until mid evening. The severe risk also has shifted more east to
areas along and east of I-95 and east of Rt 15 in northern MD.
Latest CAMs this morning show several broken short line
segments including bows developing across the northern neck of
VA lifting NE into southern MD. Other short line segments are
seeing on the reflectivity products over north central MD into
southern PA. The primary threat remains damaging winds due to
strengthening wind fields and moderate instability (~1500 J/kg),
but a couple of tornadoes and isold large hail are also
possible. Severe risk should diminish quickly after 00Z and be
over completely by 02Z Tue.

[WxUSAF]

I’d like some rain…

[yoda]

I see some breaks in the clouds and some sun 

[Kmlwx]

12 minutes ago, yoda said:

I see some breaks in the clouds and some sun 

Lots of clouds to the W though. I'm tempted to MEH for my backyard. Lots of the CAMs really do focus things S and E of 95. 

[snowfan]

Aside from the brief clearing this am, hrrr keeps us in the clouds most of the day with a few meh line segments moving through during the day. 

[dailylurker]

26 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Aside from the brief clearing this am, hrrr keeps us in the clouds most of the day with a few meh line segments moving through during the day. 

At this point I just hope we get some rain.

[Eskimo Joe]

Significant downward trend overnight. Looks like a run of the mill event now at best. This is why you wait until the day of to get invested.

[dailylurker]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Significant downward trend overnight. Looks like a run of the mill event now at best. This is why you wait until the day of to get invested.

Looks like a broken line of showers around noon lol. I guess I'll be watering all week. 

[aldie 22]

Outdoor activities saved 

[hstorm]

We have a whole summer of storms ahead. No reason to root for severe on Memorial Day when so many of us have plans to be outside. I’m hoping for dry, peaceful, and maybe even a few peeks of sun. 

[dailylurker]

15 minutes ago, hstorm said:

We have a whole summer of storms ahead. No reason to root for severe on Memorial Day when so many of us have plans to be outside. I’m hoping for dry, peaceful, and maybe even a few peeks of sun. 

Boring. I was hoping for a grid demolishing line of terror ripping through around dinner time. But, I'm cool with my garden getting watered by a boring rain shower also lol

[Kmlwx]

Does seem like there are some breaks in the clouds in areas like Franklin, WV and near Luray. Not much...but they are there.