2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[yoda]

Last call for severe tomorrow? MRGL risk up west of the Blue Ridge from SPC for Day 2

Morning AFD from LWX 

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
This is my seventh night shift, and I feel like this amplified
upper level pattern has changed this weekend`s forecast a little
bit each day. For Saturday, the low remains off the coast and
high pressure remains to the north. However, now there appears
to be a bit more defined low and frontal pattern that approaches
from the Great Lakes combined with a shortwave in northwest flow
aloft. The warm sector will feature highs in the lower to mid
80s and dew points in the lower to mid 60s. This will aid in
developing some instability, so showers and thunderstorms should
develop with the approaching forcing. Most models suggest decent
coverage (40-60 percent) starting midday west of the Blue Ridge
and then spreading east during the afternoon and evening. While
instability will be somewhat modest, shear of 30-40 kt is
forecast by some guidance. This could result in some organized
storms that could produce hail and localized wind damage. Right
now the greatest chance for severe weather appears to be west of
I-95, where storms are most likely during peak heating (along
with slightly higher instability). While storms should weaken
some as they push east, there does appear to be enough forcing
for showers and isolated storms to last well into the night.

 

[NorthArlington101]

Two TWs down in south-central VA. Totally missed the fact that storms were around the area (well, broadly) today.

[George BM]

Random thought.

I don't believe we been placed in anything above a SLGT risk by SPC this year. If we don't get an ENH+ through the rest of the year, then, IIRC, it would be the first time at least from 2002 onwards (this is the period that I remember) that we failed to have anything above a minimal SLGT risk issued by SPC for the immediate DC metro.

[Kmlwx]

19 minutes ago, George BM said:

Random thought.

I don't believe we been placed in anything above a SLGT risk by SPC this year. If we don't get an ENH+ through the rest of the year, then, IIRC, it would be the first time at least from 2002 onwards (this is the period that I remember) that we failed to have anything above a minimal SLGT risk issued by SPC for the immediate DC metro.

I thought there was an ENH day or two. I might be wrong though.

[Kmlwx]

Bumping because it looks like we are low odds on accumulating snow in the lowlands. 

[yoda]

We get one more round tomorrow... MRGL up for most of the region

[Kmlwx]

Not expecting much - but dynamic systems can bring some good wind sometimes with a low topped line. Hopefully we are so busy with snow that we won't need to start the 2025 Severe thread until April or May  

[George BM]

6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Not expecting much - but dynamic systems can bring some good wind sometimes with a low topped line. Hopefully we are so busy with snow that we won't need to start the 2025 Severe thread until April or May  

Unrelated- sorry for taking 5,000 years to respond ... the last time DC was under an ENH risk or greater was indeed not this year. It was August 7, 2023.

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, George BM said:

Unrelated- sorry for taking 5,000 years to respond ... the last time DC was under an ENH risk or greater was indeed not this year. It was August 7, 2023.

 

Better late than never! Thank you! 

[yoda]

2/5/5 for this afternoon... MRGL up

[AlexD1990]

2/5/5 for this afternoon... MRGL up

Never trust a warm front. Someone in here said that once and it's never failed yet. New Years Eve spinnys for the win lol

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[yoda]

Apparently the 1300z SPC OTLK was Edwards last day

[yoda]

14 minutes ago, yoda said:

Apparently the 1300z SPC OTLK was Edwards last day

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0657 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024

   Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Damaging to isolated marginally severe gusts, isolated large hail,
   and possibly a brief tornado, are possible today from the central
   Appalachians to parts of the Mid-Atlantic.

   ...Synopsis...
   In mid/upper levels, a progressive shortwave pattern will persist
   within a broadly cyclonic flow field covering much of the CONUS from
   the Rockies eastward.  The most important of these features for
   convective potential will be a well-developed shortwave trough --
   evident in moisture-channel imagery from a low over IL south-
   southeastward to western portions of KY and the lower Tennessee
   Valley region.  Though the 500-mb low may not remain closed, the
   trough will remain strong and shift east-northeastward up the Ohio
   Valley today, reaching OH, WV and the western Appalachians of VA/NC
   by 00Z.  The trough should pivot over the northern Mid-Atlantic and
   offshore from the Delmarva Peninsula by 12Z.

   At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low between CMI-MTO, related
   to the shortwave trough aloft, a cold front arching southwestward
   across western parts of TN/KY, and a warm front east-southeastward
   across northeastern KY that will shift northeastward over portions
   of WV and southern OH through the early afternoon, as the low
   occludes and moves northeastward.  By 00Z, the low should reach the
   CLE area, with cold front moving eastward across western parts of VA
   and NC, and warm front moving north up the Atlantic Coast and across
   the Delmarva Peninsula. An older frontal zone, now well offshore,
   should continue to weaken, with considerable theta-e advection
   occurring to its west near the coast.

   ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic...
   Episodic lines and clusters of thunderstorms are expected to move
   eastward across the outlook area today, from the northern
   Cumberland/southern Allegheny Plateau region eastward toward coastal
   Delmarva and vicinity, with occasional strong/isolated severe gusts
   and hail the main severe modes, but with marginal tornado threat as
   well. 

   Large-scale ascent will spread over this region in the form of
   strong midlevel DCVA/cooling immediately preceding the trough, as
   well as the peripheral/ageostrophic influences of the left exit
   region of a strong 250-300-mb jet, centered from the Ozarks to the
   western Carolinas.  Associated destabilization aloft will offset
   modest (but diurnally steepening) low-level lapse rates and marginal
   moisture behind the offshore front.  This yields an area of 100-300
   J/kg MLCAPE already apparent in objective analyses between RAOBs,
   over southern IN, despite cool surface conditions.  This weakly
   buoyant regime is forecast to expand and strengthen somewhat
   (300-600 J/kg) as it moves eastward over eastern KY late this
   morning into midday.  Long, somewhat curved low-level hodographs and
   strong low-level shear are expected, supporting potential for
   embedded/low-topped supercells, as well as LEWP/bow features with
   any linear modes. 

   The area of large-scale lift and accompanying strong-severe
   convective potential then will shift across WV to VA/MD/DC and the
   Delmarva region, encountering theta-e advection from a modified
   post-frontal airmass over the Atlantic.  This regime then should
   move offshore, where even more-extensive convective development is
   likely overnight.  The wind and tornado areas have been shifted
   south out of most of PA, where the low-level stable/inversion layer
   should hold, and expanded westward into portions of eastern KY,
   where surface-based buoyancy will exist as the cold-core region
   moves overhead.  Severe potential probably will be discontinuous
   across this corridor, and a lack of more-robust buoyancy precludes
   more than a marginal unconditional severe threat for this outlook
   cycle. 
   ------------------

   ...Epilogue (RE)...
   This is my final SPC outlook, forecast and shift.  With a
   cyclonically swirling storm of memories, I retire mourning the end
   of a rewarding era, yet ever grateful, blessed with a career of
   public service devoted to excellence.  For a poor kid from
   inner-city east Dallas, carrying a passion for tornadoes from
   earliest awareness, and a relentless drive to research and forecast
   them, it has been everything the dream promised, and more.  I hope
   the American taxpayers have found my time worth their money.

   Even through this autumnal transition of life's seasons, I'll stay
   as inspired as ever by the tempestuous sky above -- to observe,
   photograph and study it, and keep giving back to the science in some
   way, as long as physically and mentally able.  It just won't be on
   rotating shifts.  The forecasting baton passes to another generation
   of sharp minds, just as the lead crew in the 1990s did for us "young
   pups of SELS" in Kansas City.  The SPC is in great hands.

   There isn't enough room here to thank everyone from early childhood
   through OU, NSSL, NHC, NSSFC/SELS, and SPC -- family, friends,
   instructors, mentors, students, and colleagues -- but be assured I
   do.  Nothing has granted greater career fulfillment than to deliver
   severe-weather forecasts with detailed, science-based insights,
   customized for each situation, shift after shift for over three
   decades, and to write related research papers.  Thanks for reading
   and using them, any or all.  Stay weather-aware!

   ..Edwards/Grams.. 12/31/2024

[Eskimo Joe]

Interesting

 

 

[Kmlwx]

The 12z FV3 Hi-Res is pretty darn robust...

[North Balti Zen]

Supposed to be landing at 3:30 at bwi - let’s hold off whatever line until a few hours after that. 

[Kmlwx]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Supposed to be landing at 3:30 at bwi - let’s hold off whatever line until a few hours after that. 

Models seem to suggest you'd be okay - with the turbulent stuff maybe coming in around 5-7 or so. But stuff does tend to pop quicker than expected. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Alright @Kmlwx I'm in here for one reason and one reason only: Thunder for the snow in 10 days or under. Bring the boom! 

[Kmlwx]

I'm actually pretty "on board" with today. I mean I'm not predicting tons of lightning for 70mph winds or wedges on the Mall. But I think we'll get some "decent" activity by December standards. We always seem to  get one or two cold season events. Usually one is in Nov/Dec and then we get another sometimes in February. That weird tornado/t'storm morning a few Februarys ago was insane. 

[Kmlwx]

HRRR continues to be pretty robust for this evening. I know it tends to be underwhelming in the summer/severe months - not sure if that will still be the case for cold season storm events. But...it's kind of on its own with the FV3 and some of the NSSL models. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Harrison, WV gusted to 55 mph.

[Eskimo Joe]

Morgantown, WV gusted to 63 mph!

[wxdude64]

Nice line has formed from Parkersburg down to almost Beckley WV heading ENE. Had a gusty shower roll thru here in last 30 minutes, only a 29 mph gust.

[Kmlwx]

HRRR pushes a blob or line through between 4pm and 6/7pm west to east. Let's hope @North Balti Zen lands before it rolls through! 

[high risk]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

I'm actually pretty "on board" with today. I mean I'm not predicting tons of lightning for 70mph winds or wedges on the Mall. But I think we'll get some "decent" activity by December standards. We always seem to  get one or two cold season events. Usually one is in Nov/Dec and then we get another sometimes in February. That weird tornado/t'storm morning a few Februarys ago was insane. 

I’m cautiously optimistic for some thunder this evening, but the soundings don’t excite me for severe potential.  That said, wind would certainly be on the table if we can maintain some surface-based instability ahead of whatever convection makes it to our area. 

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

I’m cautiously optimistic for some thunder this evening, but the soundings don’t excite me for severe potential.  That said, wind would certainly be on the table if we can maintain some surface-based instability ahead of whatever convection makes it to our area. 

Yeah - gusty showers is kind of what I'm expecting. But maybe something a little more robust. I'm already 2-3 degrees off of my high of the day. Dewpoint is down in the low 40s. Then again - I guess we could say that's not too bad for Dec 31st. 

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, high risk said:

I’m cautiously optimistic for some thunder this evening, but the soundings don’t excite me for severe potential.  That said, wind would certainly be on the table if we can maintain some surface-based instability ahead of whatever convection makes it to our area. 

Surface based instability after dark on NYE. What a world.

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Surface based instability after dark on NYE. What a world.

Perfect way for us to transition from relatively boring weather long term to excitement. Severe weather, then severe cold and winter weather chances! 

[Kmlwx]

Severe thunderstorm warning SW of CHO. Very respectable radar signature with it bowing out seemingly. 

[gymengineer]

Not a graphic you see every day: