2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[frd]

Pathetic storms fell apart.  Had a severe thunderstorm warning and nothing happened. Storm weakened in a matter of minutes. 

 

 

[osfan24]

HRRR for the win again.

[high risk]

4 hours ago, batmanbrad said:

asking as a neophite... could the bay breeze collisions (?) be  a factor in why things appear to be ramping up east of DC now?

     I wasn't paying attention to the location of that boundary at the time, but it's certainly possible in theory.

[vastateofmind]

10 hours ago, frd said:

Pathetic storms fell apart.  Had a severe thunderstorm warning and nothing happened. Storm weakened in a matter of minutes. 

Yeah, the line definitely looked like it had potential when watches were issued, started losing punch on approach to DC, then had gasoline and a match poured on it between the city and the Bay. Our pity sprinkles turned into about 45 min of light rain before sunset last night.

[Eskimo Joe]

40 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Yeah, the line definitely looked like it had potential when watches were issued, started losing punch on approach to DC, then had gasoline and a match poured on it between the city and the Bay. Our pity sprinkles turned into about 45 min of light rain before sunset last night.

Classic DC Severe. The mountains give extra lift, then it downslopes and fizzles, finally cycling over the Bay.

[Kmlwx]

DC special slight on Wednesday? LOL

[midatlanticweather]

Some news

https://x.com/WxLiz/status/1814369883393609831 

[Eskimo Joe]

Tomorrow has all the makings of a surprise flood/severe day:

• Warm front
• Moist low level environment
• Wave of low pressure running along the warm front

[high risk]

looks like perhaps an MRGL for Thursday

[Eskimo Joe]

11 hours ago, high risk said:

looks like perhaps an MRGL for Thursday

Thursday looks like an I-95 and east kind of day.

[Kmlwx]

I feel like it's going to take a tropical system or strong remnants to get us out of this "funk" - other than the big tornado day this has been an exceedingly calm season IMO. 

I'm a big proponent of the "rubber band effect" though. Whenever we break the boredom it will be significant in nature. 

[Eskimo Joe]

57 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I feel like it's going to take a tropical system or strong remnants to get us out of this "funk" - other than the big tornado day this has been an exceedingly calm season IMO. 

I'm a big proponent of the "rubber band effect" though. Whenever we break the boredom it will be significant in nature. 

"you break an epic drought with an epic flood." @usedtobe

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

"you break an epic drought with an epic flood." @usedtobe

I'd rather break it with epic snowpack melt

[Kmlwx]

It will be interesting to see what the tropics do once they wake up in mid-August and beyond. Of course it's always low odds, but if it's as busy as the experts expect - would think something either gives us remnants from a Gulf strike or maybe this is the year an Isabel or similar returns. 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

It will be interesting to see what the tropics do once they wake up in mid-August and beyond. Of course it's always low odds, but if it's as busy as the experts expect - would think something either gives us remnants from a Gulf strike or maybe this is the year an Isabel or similar returns. 

This is a typical outcome after a long dry period AKA 1999 Floydd

[Eskimo Joe]

58 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

This is a typical outcome after a long dry period AKA 1999 Floydd

Floyd was 1998?

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Floyd was 1998

1999! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

1999! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd 

I stand corrected! Was in Philly at the time...what an event. Fast mover, but something like 8" - 10" of rain fell in under 12 hours. It was the only time I had school canceled for rain as a kid.

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

1999! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd 

Move Floyd 50 miles west and slow it down by 12 hours. That would. . . impressive.

[dailylurker]

Floyd was a really cool storm here in AA County. Trees blew down everywhere, tons of rain and a PRE event. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Floyd was 1998?

Hurricane Floyd hit Delaware County very hard on September 17th, 1999, with serious flooding 10-15" of rain as it ran up along the cold front as a 45-mph tropical storm just a few miles offshore of the South Jersey coast moving NNE at 35 mph.   

[Kmlwx]

Little signal at Day 8 for CSU-MLP

[Kmlwx]

The usually stingy HRRR is actually semi-decent - maybe not for severe but storms across a decent chunk of the area. Of course there will be deadzones and jackpots. CAMs vary in coverage and intensity. 

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The usually stingy HRRR is actually semi-decent - maybe not for severe but storms across a decent chunk of the area. Of course there will be deadzones and jackpots. CAMs vary in coverage and intensity. 

Seems a fairly cohesive line of storms may occur, particularly for DC and points north. Fingers crossed…

[Kmlwx]

NAM nest rolling in now is weaker and HRRR seems less enthusiastic as well. 

[WxUSAF]

41 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

NAM nest rolling in now is weaker and HRRR seems less enthusiastic as well. 

Severe chances seem low but chances of rain seem good (again, favoring DC and north)?

[Kmlwx]

Latest HRRR sucks horribly. 

[vastateofmind]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

NAM nest rolling in now is weaker and HRRR seems less enthusiastic as well. 

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Latest HRRR sucks horribly. 

For storms? 

Or for rain chances?

Because I hope to hell it isn't for rain chances...

[WxUSAF]

22 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

For storms? 

Or for rain chances?

Because I hope to hell it isn't for rain chances...

15z hrrr was awful for both. 16z much better for both. But for us, but not the whole area.