2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[vastateofmind]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Severe Thunderstorm Watch up until 10pm

LOL. Weird, cuz I got the weather app (and other) notifications on my phone...and yet my wx radio hasn't started singing yet.

[yoda]

 

[George BM]

18z IAD sounding.

Steep LLLRs and fairly high Pwats... though weak MLLRs. Could be some decent downburst/outflow winds should storms mature locally.

 

[yoda]

Right on cue as the watch went up lol

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
243 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Shenandoah County in northwestern Virginia...
  North central Rockingham County in western Virginia...
  Northern Page County in northwestern Virginia...
  Southern Hardy County in eastern West Virginia...

* Until 330 PM EDT.

* At 243 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Timberville,
  or 17 miles north of Harrisonburg, moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Woodstock, Luray, Broadway, Timberville, Mount Jackson, Basye-Bryce
  Mountain, New Market, Basye, Edinburg, Maurertown, Tunis, Kings
  Crossing, Shenandoah Caverns, Yankeetown, Alonzaville, Hamburg,
  Quicksburg, Fairview, Bergton, and Saint Davids Church.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Large hail, damaging wind, and continuous cloud to ground lightning
are occurring with this storm. Move indoors immediately. Lightning is
one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder,
you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

[vastateofmind]

25 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

LOL. Weird, cuz I got the weather app (and other) notifications on my phone...and yet my wx radio hasn't started singing yet.

I know there's bigger fish frying right now out west, but did everyone else get the wx radio's STW siren alert at 2:38pm? Mine is getting perfect reception from LWX, not showing any errors onscreen (as it will do sometimes if NOT getting reception)...but I'm concerned because I'm not getting any audible alerts right now.

[Kmlwx]

19z WoFS ensemble members are all very consistent with bringing that line east. Many of them kind of screw parts of Northern Maryland, however. 

[North Balti Zen]

16 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

19z WoFS ensemble members are all very consistent with bringing that line east. Many of them kind of screw parts of Northern Maryland, however. 

sure, sure, that checks out. Can probably take that one to the bank then. 

[Kmlwx]

19:30z WoFS looks great for a big chunk of the area. 

[midatlanticweather]

Anything of concern here?

 

[midatlanticweather]

[Kmlwx]

You can see on radar various areas where the storms may be trying to bow a bit. QLCS/LEWP-esque in nature. 

[Kmlwx]

Echo tops have been gradually increasing along the line. Assuming the 20z WoFS will hold serve given the line is developing nicely now. Doesn't look like any jaw dropping wind on the line yet - but will be interested to see how it comes off the higher terrain. 

[Kmlwx]

Lightning on this stuff hasn't been particularly prolific based on the GOES lightning mapper and ENTLN data. Additionally, I haven't seen any really nice velocity scans - best velocity seems to be in the northern warning so far - but mostly subsevere if anything. I don't see any pronounced outflow outrunning the line yet on the LWX radar - that's one failure mode that can cause storms to "skip" over some locales. 

[NorthArlington101]

Lightning on this stuff hasn't been particularly prolific based on the GOES lightning mapper and ENTLN data. Additionally, I haven't seen any really nice velocity scans - best velocity seems to be in the northern warning so far - but mostly subsevere if anything. I don't see any pronounced outflow outrunning the line yet on the LWX radar - that's one failure mode that can cause storms to "skip" over some locales. 

Looks like it’s coming - just looks boring!

[midatlanticweather]

Was just on the north side of the winds, and it was not too bad here in Purcellville. Nice rain, but it was so brief! 0.28" is just not gonna do much! 

 

[Kmlwx]

The MoCo section might be gusting out...hoping for reenergizing of the line. 

[Kmlwx]

Interesting warning from LWX for MoCo and vicinity. The warning itself tilts slightly south of east (SLIGHTLY) but the warning storm motion is north of east..which leads the storm motion markers to leave the warning box to the north. 

[Kmlwx]

Looks pretty tame and lame. 

[vastateofmind]

Radar getting spread out and messy looking on approach to the city. At least we're getting some pity sprinkles.

[Kmlwx]

Guarantee you it's going to blow up east of the metros for like Southern Maryland etc. 

[high risk]

32 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Looks pretty tame and lame. 

     I'm pretty shocked by the lack of intensity and lack of lightning.

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, high risk said:

     I'm pretty shocked by the lack of intensity and lack of lightning.

Me too. I mean mid-level lapse rates of course sucked - but my dewpoint hasn't dropped below 70 all day. Just one of those days, I guess. I don't even think I got rain that could classify as "heavy"

Seems we'll have a boring stretch now. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

I don't even think I got rain that could classify as "heavy”

I mean heavy rain on dry soil just becomes runoff.

[09-10 analogy]

18 minutes ago, high risk said:

     I'm pretty shocked by the lack of intensity and lack of lightning.

Yeah, me too. Any theories? Dews at DCA were in the mid-upper 60s this afternoon, SBCAPE from the IAD sounding @George BM posted may have been rather anemic ...

This

https://www.weather.gov/source/zhu/ZHU_Training_Page/lightning_stuff/lightning/lightning_strikes.html#:~:text=The glaciation process produces a,upper portions of the storm.

defines one of the markers of "highly active" lightning is 3000 j/kg CAPE and we were nowhere near that, I think? 

I know it's not, "take a teaspoon of 65 dews and mix with bulk shear >30 kt" but why were these storms so ... ill-illuminating?

 

[high risk]

22 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Me too. I mean mid-level lapse rates of course sucked - but my dewpoint hasn't dropped below 70 all day. Just one of those days, I guess. I don't even think I got rain that could classify as "heavy"

Seems we'll have a boring stretch now. 

    It's really getting its act together on the east side of DC, but that's far too late for those of us further west and northwest.

[IronTy]

34 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Guarantee you it's going to blow up east of the metros for like Southern Maryland etc. 

I hope so!  

[Kmlwx]

7 minutes ago, high risk said:

    It's really getting its act together on the east side of DC, but that's far too late for those of us further west and northwest.

Classic lol

[batmanbrad]

6 minutes ago, high risk said:

    It's really getting its act together on the east side of DC, but that's far too late for those of us further west and northwest.

asking as a neophite... could the bay breeze collisions (?) be  a factor in why things appear to be ramping up east of DC now?

[aldie 22]

Looks like more developing to the west 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Looks pretty tame and lame. 

Yeah, I've been surprised by this Summer. If we hit 104 last July, there would have been some awesome lightning shows.