2024 Severe Weather General Discussion

[MN Transplant]

Keep it rolling

[nj2va]

Distant thunder getting louder and more frequent. Woo storms!

[alexj7]

Seems like the storms up by Rockville died out right on the doorstep. Still the most lightning I’ve seen all year, which is to say, not a lot.

 

Sadly barely any rain. But on the plus side we have a nice rainbow now.

[Wxtrix]

a disappointing 5 minutes of rain earlier, but now the second line looks to drop some more rain.

[87storms]

The clouds over the Catoctin’s look like they want to party. I might be on the southern edge, though.

[North Balti Zen]

Absolutely looks like a split and miss for northern Baltimore county. Unreal.

[Kmlwx]

Raining - but really did fizzle a good bit before reaching me. Good to get some liquid though

[Jrlg1181]

1 hour ago, vastateofmind said:

Region between Charlottesville and Louisa appears to be getting pretty fairly spanked right now on radar...in terms of lightning. Any confirmations on conditions down that way?

In somewhat related news, at least based on current radar....Short Pump looks like it might only get grazed by severe activity to the north.   

Driving back to my work building just past Pantops mt in Eastern C'ville,  there was a bunch of ctg strikes off to the east , some appeared to be holding in place for at least a full second..

[vastateofmind]

5 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said:

Driving back to my work building just past Pantops mt in Eastern C'ville,  there was a bunch of ctg strikes off to the east , some appeared to be holding in place for at least a full second..

Definitely looked like it on radar back in that timeframe. So we currently have that post-thunderstorm, semi-sunset-incoming look here right now, after a 10 minute shower, but the lightning is actually picking up and getting nastier. Weird.

[dailylurker]

Looks like another swing and miss east of DC. 

[BlizzardNole]

Barely got into the northern tip of that VA line for just 0.10 and the northern line is lined up to miss to the north.  So glad I set my irrigation set up today which is running right now.  $uk it mother nature

[87storms]

The clouds look like war of the worlds incoming, but radar says otherwise. Looks like a northern scooter. We just can’t seem to get vorts to go south enough, often enough.

[Random Chaos]

Somehow completely missed me again...it has been 2 months since I have had significant, sustained rain.

[JenkinsJinkies]

So what’s the mechanism that causes storms fizzle just as they reach the 95 corridor?

[dailylurker]

48 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So what’s the mechanism that causes storms fizzle just as they reach the 95 corridor?

Insane dewpoints and heat and we can't even get a thundershower. 

[Eskimo Joe]

4 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So what’s the mechanism that causes storms fizzle just as they reach the 95 corridor?

Downsloping off the mountains usually. That plus we seemed to have a weak inversion aloft that was decapitating the updrafts last night.

[mattskiva]

Some of us got rain...  the severe thunderstorm in northern PW/southern Loudoun was no joke.  1.5" of rain in 30 minutes here, worst flooding in the basement since we moved to this house in 2010.

 

[North Balti Zen]

I can't believe an absolute whiff again up my way.

Oh, wait, I guess I can believe it. 

[Kmlwx]

CSU MLP remains relatively interesting for next week. 

[vastateofmind]

4 hours ago, mattskiva said:

Some of us got rain...  the severe thunderstorm in northern PW/southern Loudoun was no joke.  1.5" of rain in 30 minutes here, worst flooding in the basement since we moved to this house in 2010.

I'm sorry for those who got whiffed on last night's activity...we've whiffed the last few rounds of storms here as well, except for last night. I have no way to measure precip right now, but we got a solid 45 min last evening of either steady light rain or wind-driven/sideways deluge. Anecdotally...things are generally "less brown" today (e.g., grass, garden plantings) and it's WAY more comfortable outside...but it is still somewhat brown.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

CSU MLP remains relatively interesting for next week. 

Don't sleep on anything next week. Ridge is more favorable for MCS and we have a better chance at EML advection.

[Terpeast]

40 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

I'm sorry for those who got whiffed on last night's activity...we've whiffed the last few rounds of storms here as well, except for last night. I have no way to measure precip right now, but we got a solid 45 min last evening of either steady light rain or wind-driven/sideways deluge. Anecdotally...things are generally "less brown" today (e.g., grass, garden plantings) and it's WAY more comfortable outside...but it is still somewhat brown.

We still have a massive hole to climb out of. Last night helped (if you got rain), but it's not enough. We need a good 1-2 day soaker a week for a month or two to catch up. 

Long term, a bit of troughing between west/central US ridge and the WAR. We'll have plenty of SW flow to keep us hot and humid most days, but fortunately more chances for afternoon storms with the trough axis nearby.

[KAOS]

43 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

I'm sorry for those who got whiffed on last night's activity...we've whiffed the last few rounds of storms here as well, except for last night. I have no way to measure precip right now, but we got a solid 45 min last evening of either steady light rain or wind-driven/sideways deluge. Anecdotally...things are generally "less brown" today (e.g., grass, garden plantings) and it's WAY more comfortable outside...but it is still somewhat brown.

Whiffed!?!? I got 5 raindrops. Which puts my monthly total at 11 raindrops. Nearly doubling this month's rainfall....  Magic 8 ball was correct.

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Don't sleep on anything next week. Ridge is more favorable for MCS and we have a better chance at EML advection.

Yeah I was noticing some mid-level lapse rates getting advected in on the GFS. Timing kind of sucked on a few runs though. Worth watching at a minimum. 

[IronTy]

Woohoo flood watch for soMD this weekend!   Hoping for rain.  

[Eskimo Joe]

3 hours ago, IronTy said:

Woohoo flood watch for soMD this weekend!   Hoping for rain.  

Surprised we got one down there even. The soil moisture values on the mesonet sites on Delmarva and southern Maryland are parched. 

[vastateofmind]

That's not a derecho-ISH...thing...just to the west of the Apps right now. Right?

 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

10 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

That's not a derecho-ISH...thing...just to the west of the Apps right now. Right?

 

 

It's gonna fizzle over WV

[yoda]

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
434 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VAC107-152045-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0140.000000T0000Z-240715T2045Z/
Loudoun VA-
434 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN LOUDOUN COUNTY...

At 434 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Leesburg,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Leesburg, Lansdowne, Purcellville, Hamilton, Paeonian Springs,
Waterford, Lucketts, and Lincoln.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Sterling Virginia.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature`s leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 7746 3921 7747 3919 7748 3918 7751
      3915 7753 3912 7752 3911 7749 3910 7748
      3911 7772 3915 7773 3922 7769 3925 7749
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 269DEG 18KT 3917 7758

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

 

[09-10 analogy]

Decent electrical activity in up nw. Loudest thunder of the year. 

EDIT: Hell, this is the best storm of the year IMBY. Wind gusts guestimated at over 45, and very cloudbursty for a couple of moments. 

and it's an official SVR warn:

evere Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
542 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

DCC001-MDC031-033-VAC013-059-510-610-152200-
/O.CON.KLWX.SV.W.0146.000000T0000Z-240715T2200Z/
District of Columbia DC-Montgomery MD-Prince Georges MD-Arlington VA-
City of Falls Church VA-Fairfax VA-City of Alexandria VA-
542 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN
PRINCE GEORGES...ARLINGTON...AND NORTHEASTERN FAIRFAX COUNTIES...THE
CITY OF FALLS CHURCH AND THE NORTHERN CITY OF ALEXANDRIA...

At 542 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Friendship
Village, or over Bethesda, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches to
         fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as damage
         homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by downed
         trees. Localized power outages are possible. Unsecured
         light objects may become projectiles.

Locations impacted include...
Arlington, Alexandria, Rockville, Bethesda, College Park, Greenbelt,
Langley Park, Beltsville, Falls Church, Bladensburg, Pimmit Hills,
National Harbor, Mclean, American Legion Bridge, Fort Totten,
Rosslyn, Crystal City, University of Maryland, Nationals Park, and
Howard University.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Sterling Virginia.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.