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2024 Severe Weather General Discussion


Kmlwx
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17 minutes ago, RDM said:

Just came in from spending about 5 hours outside.  (nasty dp) Got a few dozen drops a couple of times only to see the cells pop just a couple miles to the east.  Ground is hard as rock - have only managed .64" for the entire month. 

10 minutes ago, GATECH said:

Brief shower, complete steam bath now.  91, DP 84 after the shower, HI 114!

Mrs. & I spent entire afternoon on the back patio, too. And yeah, super muggy and hot, but...not bad with a fan! I took a short 15 min nap starting around 5:15 when it was still sunny...and was jolted awake by my wife a half hour ago, who was trying to cover the patio furniture in a sudden shower.  :) 

And now, post-shower, 88/74, and like @GATECH says, definite steam bath. But hey...we got to eke out a relaxing afternoon outside. And, we got up to 103 for our high.

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1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

Yeah sorry to the many who got nothing all weekend.  I feel blessed to luck into 0.6 last night.  This is going to be a rough summer with many 95-plus days and very little rainfall

It does seem like that kind of summer. Hot and dry most of the time where we routinely blow past 95 like its nothing. Doesn’t seem like the pattern will change anytime soon. 

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MRGL for the 4th.    There will be convection in the area later in the day, but shear is really meh.    Still, with a hot, well-mixed boundary layer, a few stronger wind gusts can't be ruled out.    What's interesting is that there is a a weak consensus for this being an event for DC and points south, but there are still a few CAM solutions that get points north of DC in on the action too.

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Sneaky severe threat tomorrow?

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The remnants of Beryl are expected to pass well to the north
across the Great Lakes into New England. However, some of the
enhanced synoptic flow may extend southward into the local area.
This would be able to interact with the persistent hot, humid,
and unstable thermodynamic environment. With that said, the
atmosphere is certainly ripe for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Along or just ahead of a cold front, the latest
high-resolution guidance favors a later show than usual with a
north/south band of convection pushing eastward to around I-95
by the early/mid evening. This should continue a slow but steady
march eastward to the Chesapeake Bay before exiting after
midnight. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded most
locations up to a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. The
current exceptions would be the Allegheny Mountains and far
southern Maryland. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat,
but a brief isolated tornado cannot be ruled, especially for the
more northern locations. Vertical shear is a bit stronger
coupled with decent cyclonically curved low-level hodographs.
Any threat for severe thunderstorms should halt by the overnight
hours.
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1 hour ago, yoda said:

Sneaky severe threat tomorrow?

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The remnants of Beryl are expected to pass well to the north
across the Great Lakes into New England. However, some of the
enhanced synoptic flow may extend southward into the local area.
This would be able to interact with the persistent hot, humid,
and unstable thermodynamic environment. With that said, the
atmosphere is certainly ripe for more widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Along or just ahead of a cold front, the latest
high-resolution guidance favors a later show than usual with a
north/south band of convection pushing eastward to around I-95
by the early/mid evening. This should continue a slow but steady
march eastward to the Chesapeake Bay before exiting after
midnight. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded most
locations up to a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms. The
current exceptions would be the Allegheny Mountains and far
southern Maryland. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat,
but a brief isolated tornado cannot be ruled, especially for the
more northern locations. Vertical shear is a bit stronger
coupled with decent cyclonically curved low-level hodographs.
Any threat for severe thunderstorms should halt by the overnight
hours.

Yes. 

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4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yes. 

Mount Holly mentions a robust dry slot,  but later in the evening and early night when storms might reach further East. Areas N and W could get severe storms earlier near the Fall Line. 

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